Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: V4 Is it like the Terminator? Newer models are better? Or will the original Terminator trump all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 13z hrrr already going colder so wait until go time to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Has anyone had the chance to see how much longer after the model initiation start time does the HRRv4 actually initialize? 12z a no go yet on cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 13z hrrr already going colder so wait until go time to use it. Looks like it will go sick with the thump....great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, DomNH said: I feel you on this. Our program was very, very heavy on the math and science and light on practical application. I think they've worked to change that a little bit since I graduated but I'm not sure how much. I was up at UML in 1990s. We had forecast games - and folks cared! There was a national one, and many university students and faculty engaged in it. I'm not sure how it was maintained and networked. It was yet quite early in the Internet era but ... I think it was still done via nonetheless. The local in-Lab game was fun and probably even a bit too stressful for our own goods, considering the curriculum of more science-based Met programs and all those rigorous course works. Lord knows, that was enough (thank god for grading exams on bell-curves!). Still...the diversion had it's need. Do you know that our Senior year required deriving the Navier-Stokes equation, long hand, before allowing our escape with a degree? Start with a baser thermodynamic and a baser fluid mechanics equation, and by the time they are fully integrated... one line becomes almost 7 pages long. Which is why I formulated a mortgage-paying career in software engineering, and only hobby weather, instead ...And also science-fiction writing, ...etc. But point being, I realized along the way that actually working under a heading of Meteorologist is just a label. You still 'know' how it works, and know how to forecast for having your experiences... Labels don't change who you are - the rest is just a form of immaturity and requiring the adulation of others ... if not some petty celebrity for a moment. Once one really connects with what all that means ...they can read the charts, figure for a bomb in 18 days, nail it... and no one ever knows they made that insight, because they didn't care to mention it. Their truth gone forever. And they could not be more okay with that, as there really is no loss in the first place. 'Sides... life really doesn't matter - oh, there are certainly things that matter to you, of course. Once you get to middle age, an awareness gets harder to deny. Accolades seem to fade beneath the universal shadow cast by the reality: everything in reality is merely a human construct - including one's opus'. All value systems and perceptions of self, or ego... even art, all of it. Meaningless. These are aspects that disappear...vanquished when the last point of light fades from awareness and the "soul" ( only for lack of better word) disperses to oblivion at the end. Not trying to be depressing here... "really" more like 'releasing' ... peace. Once one really and truly connects with how meaningless they are, it's very liberating - it's like being in a walking talking DMT zone. Not to be confused with caring for your wife, or your kids, your siblings and best friends... giving a shit about community, and not wanting wars. Because...that'd be weird of course. We can appreciate splendor. It's knowing that you are traversing a tapestry of reality - which is just another form of art. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like it will go sick with the thump....great sign I could see a 4-6” swap across CCT before the ip/zr fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like Reggie won't be so suppressed like 06z was. Feel like we're starting to weed out the outliers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I don't like how the NAM only has central/northern CT only in the upper 20's to around 30 for much of tomorrow. Also props to @JGNYK03 for pointing out the discrepancy with my initial ice forecast map from Saturday...definitely going to be a much larger (and more uniform) even close down to the coast. Going to correct that with an update later this morning...along with adding a 4-6'' stripe along the CT/MA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I could see a 4-6” swap across CCT before the ip/zr fest. That's certainly in my mind...though I am going to place that closer to the border...mlvls always seem to warm rather quick. I am a little concerned b/c if we see ice accretion pushing .4'' that's sticking the head right into the start of some trouble territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like Reggie won't be so suppressed like 06z was. Feel like we're starting to weed out the outliers now. We need that weighted FSU superensemble back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z RGEM was way better for south of pike peeps For reference. 0z Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: For reference. 0z Reggie Why 00z and not the 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: HRRR is useless I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's certainly in my mind...though I am going to place that closer to the border...mlvls always seem to warm rather quick. I am a little concerned b/c if we see ice accretion pushing .4'' that's sticking the head right into the start of some trouble territory. The 4 northern counties as usual, agree. The ice is the bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The 4 northern counties as usual, agree. The ice is the bigger story. With this...that makes the snowfall forecast just as important. If we get 3-4'' of snow followed by ice it will further enhance potential for some bigger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why 00z and not the 06z? I didn’t see it posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Me too, but I think an upper end of 5” works here because pingers are never as far behind as one thinks down here. I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on a big icing forecast but I think it’s a legit mess. I typically bump up the expected changeover by an hour or two from what models indicate. Yeah I'm not sure if this will be a big icing event...but we may straddle the line between issues and a bit more in the way of major issues (major issues being scattered power outages and some tree damage) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I didn’t see it posted earlier. It didn't Ini on Meteocentre that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I typically bump up the expected changeover by an hour or two from what models indicate. Yeah I'm not sure if this will be a big icing event...but we may straddle the line between issues and a bit more in the way of major issues (major issues being scattered power outages and some tree damage) Let’s not forget how dumb folks are thinking it’s rain when it’s zr so they drive like they normally do. Borderline damaging ice still has major disruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Speaking of making a call and not mentioning ... The NAM's tripling Logan's QPF in the FOUS grid comparing the 06z is classic behavior in short terms whenever you see PHL/LGA on that product with bigger numbers. Not always... I'm sure the famed PD storms of last century that move bombs due east of the mid Atlantic, and cirrus milked the Boston skies didn't do that, no. But, balancing in the synoptic evolution ..prior -6z run did not make sense having PHL/LGA be nearly an inch of QPF while Logan was paltry, because the trajectory of the former was an ascent in latitude. Whenever I see that, I count on the 24 hour lead to go robust - ..here we are, boom. .75 in snow with IP contam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Let’s not forget how dumb folks are thinking it’s rain when it’s zr so they drive like they normally do. I love the famous "I have 4-wheel drive I'll be fine" line (it's ice not snow...unless your tires have custom made ice skates...good luck) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 WRF models are fairly aggressive bringing sleet to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Damn rgem juicy with the thump in CT then big time icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn rgem juicy with the thump in CT then big time icing. Good way to freeze the snow to the branches for the winds that will follow Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5-7" too high for my hood? that's what I'm thinking right now.. I don't think I sniff above freezing but will be close.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn rgem juicy with the thump in CT then big time icing. yeah the RGEM has me pretty damn concerned. that's a pretty decent signal across central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: It didn't Ini on Meteocentre that's why. The quebec sector did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Damn rgem juicy with the thump in CT then big time icing. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The quebec sector did Yeah, I just looked quick but it defaults to North America so that as far as i went on there, Its had been the furthest south of all the models and still a ways out so i was not overly seeking it, I did go to pivotal though and saw it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 5-7" too high for my hood? that's what I'm thinking right now.. I don't think I sniff above freezing but will be close.. No way on freezing for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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