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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now
 

 

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

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JB picked March 1960 because March 1896 was not available......I picked March 1960 back in September...too bad it wont be like that...but I still think March 2020 has the biggest snowstorm of the season but that aint saying much...I would not be surprised if the storm is a March version of the early December event......

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

the ao was negative from Christmas to April that winter...there was also long stretches of neg nao that winter...he can't be serious about this...

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

I was licensed by the board of Ed for common branches and high school, Social Studies. I taught 4 years in a private school, early 70’s. No jobs with the city near bankrupt and a soon to be family I decided to get benefits and go to work for my uncle. Sam was good to me in me for almost 45 years in the USPS. I spent over three decades in the Industrial Engineering department as a support specialist.  My love for the weather was solidified when, early on, as a carrier,  I delivered two routes in during a 1978 snowstorm in downtown Brooklyn. I left the Service to care for my wife and never regretted that decision. Now, even though the warm season is approaching, Franks words resonate loudly “ and the days grow short, I’m in the Autumn of the year. For that and this forum, a wonderful outlet, I remain grateful. As always ...

An education is never wasted. I too am fast approaching the autumn years, and have dodged major bullets already.

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

I sometimes went off a belt parkway bridge, past Kings Plaza , can’t remember which one. I used a multiple hook rig but I was mediocre at best. I used blood worms but the damn things go for you when you try to put them on the hook. Not that I blame them. Depending on me as a fishermen would have left the family starving,  As always .....

You couldn't even afford to waste money on bloodworms today....I used sandworms because they were cheaper ( when I had a boat ) but in my youth I used earthworms I could dig in the backyard...

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

Agreed Don, but will say that we are experiencing extremes right now....again, spring like weather with flowers blooming and insects flying around outside....and grass that has remained green ( some of which is growing ) and herbs and wild plants that are green and growing. I'd call that extreme. This should be our best time of year for snow. 

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55 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

“To sleep: perchance to dream: ay there’s the rub; as always .......

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52 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

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31 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. 

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21 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

That storm was the retrogading storm

4 inches in the morning then turned to rain and then 14 inches at night with thundersnow  .

The gradient was insane between central park and LI.

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. 

Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13.  I didn't measure. Who really cares right?

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10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13.  I didn't measure. Who really cares right?

You really do seem to be in a black hole for snow. Any idea why and how large an area does it cover?

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I will be looking forward to the snow pics from the south. I forgot what snow looks like.

Nice pictures in the upstate NY thread. Lake effect is cranking. 

Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been.

I feel it also. A years ago lost dream of coastal Maine. Now I wistfully remember the words of a youngster wandering the Kansas flatlands. 
“Somewhere over the rainbow bluebirds fly and the dreams that you dare to, why oh why can’t I ?” As always ......

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On 2/19/2020 at 7:57 AM, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i had a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter :lol: (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure)

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15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter :lol: (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure)

Boston at 15.1 on the season. I'm still ahead of them at 20.5.

The line from Albany across to Mass/NH border on north are the only spots doing okay snow wise. Everyone way above normal temp wise.

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