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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Rgem is funny.  It has banding to the west and east of the city.

 

South Jersey gets into the action.

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6 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

When Burlington County gets 20". Quite a bummer for the city showing only 3"

Would be a cruel joke for the immediate NYC metro and eastward if this pans out 

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7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

When Burlington County gets 20". Quite a bummer for the city showing only 3"

How is it even possible for South Jersey to get 20" in a marginal scenario where the rain/snow line is an issue?

You usually see that in a suppressed storm like February 1989- not this!

 

 

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27 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

That also means we will have more snow on the back end quicker.

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More snow on the back end quicker?  I fail to understand your logic there.

Do you mean there's more cold air around and it's drying up the front edge of the storm and the deeper cold air means more snow on the back end?  But as Long Beach Surfer said, the mid levels are warmer than they were forecast to be.

 

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30 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Seems like we finally have a pretty good idea of the storm, NYC west should do well, didn’t realize NAM has it snowing from about 9am tomorrow to 2am Tuesday

Models had it snowing until Tuesday morning, the question is what time will it changeover back to snow tomorrow.

Some of them have it happening as late as 5 PM.

 

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More snow on the back end quicker?  I fail to understand your logic there.
Do you mean there's more cold air around and it's drying up the front edge of the storm and the deeper cold air means more snow on the back end?  But as Long Beach Surfer said, the mid levels are warmer than they were forecast to be.
 
Sorry. I just re read what I wrote. Yes there would be more cold air in our area.

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Models had it snowing until Tuesday morning, the question is what time will it changeover back to snow tomorrow.

Some of them have it happening as late as 5 PM.

 

The  12z NAM has the best chance for snow at LGA Monday night. Starts to changeover later in the afternoon.
 

B6AA3260-1D9B-4FF7-8E2A-BAB8721B86F3.thumb.png.1595725eba15a4db0971d421bcc2767e.png

 

 

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There is an obs thread

 

i think the best bet for the city and coast is to set expectations low and hope for banding to setup tomorrow further east the forecast. As of right now this has the hallmarks of many storms pre 2000. You want to be as far NW as possible 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There is an obs thread

 

i think the best bet for the city and coast is to set expectations low and hope for banding to setup tomorrow further east the forecast. As of right now this has the hallmarks of many storms pre 2000. You want to be as far NW as possible 

and some storms between 05-06 and 07-08.  I think the only years that were significantly better pre 2000 were 93-94 and 95-96 and even 93-94 had a lot of mixing.

 

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Very light sleet here in southern Westchester looks like we're going to have to wait for the stronger lift to cool the whole column to change over to snow but it looks like this could be an icy scenario with my temperature at 28 degrees currently

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