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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Yep local forecast is saying 80% chance of "lite snow" but we know better it could get real ugly / beautiful out there depending on what side of the fence you are on. In other news although the details still need to be ironed out it seems the timing was at one time Sunday night but it appears to me it is much earlier ( I think closer to noon but could be wrong ) now anyone have a guesstimate as to the timing ?

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I now it is very early in the game and there is a lot left to happen but I am asking again --> guesstimate as to the timing on Sunday ( noon ?  )  = Bueller ? Bueller ? Anyone ?

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4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I now it is very early in the game and there is a lot left to happen but I am asking again --> guesstimate as to the timing on Sunday ( noon ?  )  = Bueller ? Bueller ? Anyone ?

Late afternoon

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

I have been looking at models ps my son flies or at least tries to fly out of Newark on Sunday at noon

We will know more by Saturday 0z. Is that too late to cancel if so ?

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UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.

This is going to be a big snowstorm for inland areas. I think the coasts sees some snow but nothing big like what Inland areas will see unless this storm keeps trending colder or bombs out. Today's  guidance is really interesting in that  regards.

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The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ 

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ 

The part that makes this storm tricky is the complexity of all the pieces. I think the extent of the WAA from the primary will be a tricky forecast. The forecast is tricker for the city than it appears because while i expect lots of rain there is both potential for the front end to hit like a wall or the back end CCB to hit like a wall, so the city could get anywhere from no accumulation to several inches depending on those two aspects of the storm which will both be hard to predict until real time.   

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

We will know more by Saturday 0z. Is that too late to cancel if so ?

YEP I get it but Too late in fact 88 we just booked the flight last night as it was real slim pickens and getting $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. I tried to get him out of here and back at School by Saturday but he has a big get together with friends Saturday nite they are all back from school. So we watch and we wait ,as I am sure many other people have concerns and travel issues on this weekend = back to the models

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Just now, bluewave said:

We were discussing the record breaking nature of this closed low now over California. So with such an extreme event, there are bound to be some surprises with the snow details. Closed lows are the best bet to get snows down to the coast this time of year. But those details will probably have to wait for later runs.

Those are exactly my thoughts. Based on what I see today, the best bets for wintry precip in the city may be at onset and then late Monday as the upper low and deformation axis pivot nearby.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We were discussing the record breaking nature of this closed low now over California. So with such an extreme event, there are bound to be some surprises with the snow details. Closed lows are the best bet to get snows down to the coast this time of year. But those details will probably have to wait for later runs.

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How was the early Nov 2012 event. 

I remember most models had us raining the entire time, it was one of the more recent surprise snow events. 

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57 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.

There may be something up with the UKMET snowfall output. QPF does not support the snow maps, and in fact, it seems to indicate heavier snow potential in the city.

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

There may be something up with the UKMET snowfall output. QPF does not support the snow maps, and in fact, it seems to indicate heavier snow potential in the city.

It probably has 33 at the surface or something which in that setup probably wouldn’t happen 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

It probably has 33 at the surface or something which in that setup probably wouldn’t happen 

Not sure what's going on. The QPF maps we have show barely any liquid equivalent where it has the heaviest snow. 

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14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z Euro will get the weenies fired up. Big hit for the city.

Only see ~2" on weather.us still better than before 

Edit- might have been 0z run. Not a very clear product 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I always had a feeling this would trend more south. 

It'll tick south a few runs, then north a few runs. As long as Camelback can get a decent snow and hold on to it by next weekend, I'm happy

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