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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That north trend is a myth u never know

It isn't but not every storm will trend north. I'm worried about this one trending south.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Plenty of negative examples too. It's real.

In this case it would be a negative trend but it happens more often than not. We really need that block to keep this south because initially the bowling ball primary will try to drive the warm air in and resist redeveloping. Which brings up another trend over the last few years- long lasting primary lows.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It isn't but not every storm will trend north. I'm worried about this one trending south.

This one isn’t trending south or north in my opinion...it’s coming!

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4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From Steve D: The EPS is what I used as a base for my thoughts since yesterday, and really no change was found.  Saw what the ECMWF did.  Possible.  Sure, but I also noticed some questionable amplification.

Vendor 

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2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

JB just said upper level low is going south of PA., and temps will be 5-7 degrees cooler than last weekend. He expects snow and ice down to Mason/Dixon line. Heaviest amounts north of I78/80. Upwards of 15" north Jersey and north.

Hard to take him seriously but if you just look right at the OP euro he'd be right.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Hard to take him seriously but if you just look right at the OP euro he'd be right.

Euro and eps r the best and ukmet also. Does anyone know the model score cards?

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city

They need more time they’re the national weather and so does everyone else

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I understand. He always just blurts out the most extreme solution and paints it as gospel.

What he said wasn't that extreme, with the extent of the CAD there will be frozen precip down to the Mason Dixon line and their should be significant wintry precip I80 and North. The 15 inches part who knows but probably will happen somewhere, this is a long duration event.

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city

They are always late to the party. Every single storm

 

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Just now, CarLover014 said:

It was looking decent up to hour 90

 

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not at all. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh102_trend.gif

It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley

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EURO is looking like 10"+ now for City.

I hope this is not an inane question: 

    How do you measure a storm that has Snow to Rain to Snow, as we could get here in places?      Does someone have to witness the changeover, record the snow board total up to that time, and then witness it going back to Snow, measure that period on a separate snow board, then add them up?        Or do you just go by what is left on the snow board when all precipitation ends?        Say 5" upfront, which is washed away completely, but then ends with 2" of snow on the board.       Is it a 5", 2" or 7" snowstorm, I wonder!?

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42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city

Because they do not ride the American weather model and emotional rollercoaster.

we saw how important high position is this time of year (slightly earlier) with last November’s event. The trends with the high placement have been great today. But at the this lead time all they are, are trends. 
I’m feeling confident everyone see at least some snow now

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