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Rtd208

November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is   -5.0[45.5].        Should be  near -5.0[43.4] by the 22nd.

31* here at 6am.       38* by 9am.!           42* by Noon.     44* at 1pm. (nice WAA).      47* by 3pm.

Snow threats are weak, despite the coastal actions, over the next two weeks.   GFS tries to end November where it started---in the 60's.

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Looks like this weekend may be our last shot at an Arctic air mass for a while. The EPS shifts the coldest air over to Asia as the Aleutian low intensifies and the -EPO relaxes. So any below normal temperatures should be more Pacific origin rather than Arctic. Maybe this Arctic relaxation will translate into a wetter pattern for us. 

EC0A871F-556E-40BF-82CF-74B706A7496B.thumb.png.4893259f53d196f98bf3bf2e5634024b.png

39558211-C37E-42D9-88D7-770796D7D902.thumb.png.cfcdb8c1a017a839dc12b10136d9c638.png

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like this weekend may be our last shot at an Arctic air mass for a while. The EPS shifts the coldest air over to Asia as the Aleutian low intensifies and the -EPO relaxes. So any below normal temperatures should be more Pacific origin rather than Arctic. Maybe this Arctic relaxation will translate into a wetter pattern for us. 

We'd be very lucky if that ends up being our December pattern. It's marginal but not too bad for snow chances as we get closer to winter with better climo. 

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'd be very lucky if that ends up being our December pattern. It's marginal but not too bad for snow chances as we get closer to winter with better climo. 

I am simply amazed at repeating patterns, especially the cold November, warm December couplet that has been so persistent for so long, especially the warm December.  The winter solstice rain and mild is getting very tiresome. 

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14 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hey Don, any info on any possible record low maxes yesterday in the tri-state area? They were everywhere and plentiful here in SNE. TYIA

I will post them tomorrow morning at the latest. Most of the local area except for Central Park set them.

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Record cold shifted northward into northern New England. Record low temperatures were as follows: Bangor: 8° (old record: 11°, 1986) and Caribou: 3° (old record: 4°, 1986).

In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, a cold morning was followed by a milder afternoon with readings returning to the 40s. Tomorrow will see temperatures rise toward or above 50° in much of the region. Nevertheless, November 1-15 will likely register a mean temperature of 44.5°-44.9° in New York City. That would be the coldest first half of November since 1976.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -6.49 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.735.

The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. Thus, an overall anomaly close to normal may now be more likely than a warm one.

On November 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.137 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.291.

The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December.

It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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15 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hey Don, any info on any possible record low maxes yesterday in the tri-state area? They were everywhere and plentiful here in SNE. TYIA

Record low maximum temperatures for November 13 included:

Albany: 26° (old record: 31°, 1911)
Allentown: 35° (old record: 36°, 1995)
Atlantic City: 37° (old record: 39°, 1968)
Binghamton: 21° (old record: 28°, 1977)
Bridgeport: 33° (old record: 38°, 1995)
Islip: 34° (old record: 39°, 2013)
New York City-JFK: 35° (old record: 41°, 1968, 1977, and 2013)
New York City-LGA: 35° (old record: 39°, 1977)
Newark: 35° (old record: 41°, 1986, 1995, and 2013)
Poughkeepsie: 32° (old record: 35°, 1962 and 1986)
White Plains: 33° (old record: 35°, 1995)

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not for the faint-hearted (at least those hoping for a cold winter)...

The latest C3S multi-model system forecast temperature anomalies:

C3-S-DJF-2019-2020.jpg

That seems super suspect. No cold anomalies anywhere. If the arctic is warm that means it’s discharging cold somewhere. It’s also good to see that warmest anomaly in the  EPO region.

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14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That seems super suspect. No cold anomalies anywhere. If the arctic is warm that means it’s discharging cold somewhere. It’s also good to see that warmest anomaly in the  EPO region.

That's a 3-month average. Personally, I think the extent of warmth is somewhat overdone. Also, the multi-model forecast didn't do too well in North America last year. It was also too warm in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains for its September-November forecast. 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not for the faint-hearted (at least those hoping for a cold winter)...

The latest C3S multi-model system forecast temperature anomalies:

C3-S-DJF-2019-2020.jpg

These models always seem to be default warm.

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The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 4degs. BN.

Month to date is  -5.5[44.8].         Should be near  -4.9[43.4] by the 23rd.

38* here at 6am.        43* by 10am.       46* by Noon.       50* by 2pm.

SREF is 1" Rain from 10am Sun. to 10am Mon.       Latest run down to 0.75".

 

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...quite a difference..i'm @ 36*..usually the east end would be a lot cooler..but

skies out here are overcast..which explains why..

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