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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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November has been the only fall month this decade able to generate any cold in our area. The count is 5 colder than normal Novembers to 4 warmer since 2010. So the trough coming east with colder temperatures early in the month matches this new fall climo. But can the colder pattern persist  beyond the early part of the month?
 

2010’s November temperature departures

Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA

2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7

2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3

2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1

2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0

2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9

2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8

2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2

2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8

2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

November has been the only fall month this decade able to generate any cold in our area. The count is 5 colder than normal Novembers to 4 warmer since 2010. So the trough coming east with colder temperatures early in the month matches this new fall climo. But can the colder pattern persist  beyond the early part of the month?
 

2010’s November temperature departures

Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA

2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7

2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3

2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1

2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0

2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9

2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8

2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2

2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8

2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1

That looks like stale cold air to me.  Nothing like the departures they are getting out west.

Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That looks like stale cold air to me.  Nothing like the departures they are getting out west.

Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze?

 

During the 1st week of November 

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Quick guideline numbers for Novembers around here:        850mb T goes from +5C to 0C   and the 500mb Heights from 5680m to 5600m during the course of the month.     These would the Normals as the month progresses.

For the first half of November we range from +15C to -15C on those 850mb. Ts.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That looks like stale cold air to me.  Nothing like the departures they are getting out west.

Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze?

 

If the EPS is correct about the early month cold pattern, then perhaps NYC gets the first freeze by the 15th. This has been the case during the last 2 years.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215
Mean 04-01 11-21 234
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the EPS is correct about the early month cold pattern, then perhaps NYC gets the first freeze by the 15th. This has been the case during the last 2 years.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215
Mean 04-01 11-21 234
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251

 

that's a very impressive cold signal 

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November in NYC...decade averages and extremes...

1971-2000 normal's...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"

Average temperature...

decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...

1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"

1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"

1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"

1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"

1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"

1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"

1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"

1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"

1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"

1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"

1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"

1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"

1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"

2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....47.5.....52.8.....43.9.....70.0.....26.8.....74.....15.....3.48".....1.3"...2010-2018

1870-

2009........46.2........................….69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8"

1980-

2009........48.0........................….71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3"

Warmest Novembers...

52.8 in 2015

52.7 in 2001

52.5 in 1979

52.4 in 1948

52.3 in 1975

51.9 in 2011

51.9 in 2006

51.9 in 1994

51.9 in 1931

51.5 in 1902

51.1 in 2009

50.8 in 1999

Coldest...

37.0 in 1873

38.8 in 1871

38.9 in 1880

39.0 in 1882

39.3 in 1875

39.7 in 1901

40.3 in 1869

wettest...

12.41" in 1972

12.26" in 1977

10.00" in 1889

8.90" in 1988

8.24" in 1963

8.09" in 1985

7.62" in 2018

Driest...

0.34" in 1976

0.60" in 1931

0.71" in 1908

0.71" in 1890

0.86" in 1917

0.90" in 1933

Highest Temperatures...

84 11/01/1950

83 11/02/1950

81 11/01/1974

80 11/15/1993

79 11/02/1982

79 11/03/2003

78 11/07/1938

78 11/05/1961

78 11/04/1975

78 11/03/1990

Coldest temperatures...

_7 11/30/1875

11 11/30/1872

12 11/27/1932

12 11/30/1929

13 11/22/1880

14 11/23/1880

14 11/24/1880

14 11/29/1875

15 11/23/2018... 

Lowest monthly max...

60 in 1878

60 in 1893

60 in 1901

60 in 1904

61 in 1976

61 in 1947

61 in 1907

61 in 1884

Highest monthly min...

36 in 2011

36 in 1998

35 in 2006

35 in 2009

34 in 1902

34 in 1963

34 in 1975

34 in 2001

34 in 2010

34 in 2016

33 in 1907

33 in 1948

33 in 1985

Greatest monthly snowfall...

19.0" in 1898

14.0" in 1882

12.8" in 1938

..6.4" in 2018

_6.3" in 1892

_5.0" in 1896

Biggest snowfalls...

10.0" 11/26-27/1898

9.0" 11/29/30/1882 est...

8.8" 11/24-25/1938

6.4" 11/15/2018

6.0" 11/30/1898

5.0" 11/29-30/1896

4.7" 11/07-08/2012

4.7" 11/22-23/1989

4.0" 11/29-30/1892

4.0" 11/26-27/1938

3.7" 11/26/1882 est...

3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/24/1898

3.0" 11/30/1967

2.9" 11/30/1995

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A strong cold front was approaching the region. Its arrival could be marked by a strong squall line.

This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November.

After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the second half of the month. The persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was -2.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.442.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Based on the September-October data and the guidance for November, Fall 2019 is on track for a mean temperature near 59.0° in New York City.

On October 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.965 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.955.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

The October 16-31 period had a mean temperature that was 3.3° above normal. October 2019 finished with a mean temperature of 59.9° (3.0° above normal), which was slightly higher than what had been implied by the MJO.

Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one.

The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November.

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The first 8 days of November are averaging 48degs., or 1deg. BN. ( used 70/46 for today).

46.8* at 6am.       52.7* by 1pm.   (got down to 45.7* near 7am.)

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Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame

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26 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame

For White Plains:

11/8 22°, 1960
11/9 20°, 1971

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For White Plains:

11/8 22°, 1960
11/9 20°, 1971

Thank you the GFS has White Plains very close to the record on the 9th to CMC a little warmer at 25 degrees I know the GFS has a cold bias but with the way the 500 MB pattern looks I think there's a chance at least for some of the area. I'm always impressed with record lows in this warm climate

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame

NYC will go below freezing next Fri/Sat and many places, maybe even the city, could see lows in the mid to lower 20s.

Most suburbs will see 30-32F this weekend/Monday morning.

Very good agreement from GEFS/EPS on next Fri/Sat cold shot. Stark contrast 1st half of Nov vs October.

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On 10/29/2019 at 6:27 PM, forkyfork said:

that's a very impressive cold signal 

Our default colder November -EPO pattern since 2013 is right on schedule.

11D96CC2-56BE-410C-AB81-BE6FE74E2C2E.thumb.png.e234caf826a337d8e34e3e0b249f74a7.png

34D08736-21DA-4E3B-A90F-6CD67A87B740.thumb.png.90a6772c0d82aef1848ac246d0d219a7.png

E5E2A100-D412-4752-BFBE-6A6CE7E6A9C6.png.ac8324b1743412a9067eed712c294268.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Serious cold plunging through the Plains. Austin TX got down to 25 last night at the airport (a more rural setting but 20 mins from downtown). 

Crazy that places like Dallas and San Antonio got their first freeze before we did!  Atlanta will likely also.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our default colder November -EPO pattern since 2013 is right on schedule.

But will it flip is the question. If the atmosphere acts more like a Nino then December could be mild. 

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10 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Looks like we might get our first below freezing day next weekend.

Before next weekend, and right after that we can get snow. Watch for models for snow for next Friday into the weekend. Very decent pattern coming up. Low sun angle, cold rushing in and decent amount of moisture.

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Colder air now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, this initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions within a few days. An even colder air mass could arrive during the second week of November.

After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely.

The more likely scenario involves the large area of much above normal height anomalies covering the Gulf of Alaska shifting toward the Bering Strait and then into eastern Siberia over the next two weeks. The disappearance of the negative EPO will then set the stage for a milder regime to establish itself over much of the CONUS.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was +2.61 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.272.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On October 31, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.970.

Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one.

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39 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Coldest morning thus far, 40 degrees going down to 38! Very crisp out here... 

Check out the gefs and eps. Very interesting solutions for next wekeends storm.

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