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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Under partly sunny skies, temperatures topped out into the lower 50s this afternoon. Increasingly, the New York Botanical Garden is taking on an appearance of autumn. The trees are now changing fairly quickly.

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What is the euro showing for around November 10-13, because the look on the GFS for the last few runs has been insane with that cold shot.

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The temperature fell to 40° in Central Park this morning. That was New York City' coldest temperature since April 11 when the temperature also reached 40°. Outside the City, widespread frost was reported. Numerous locations saw the temperature fall near or below freezing.

Minimum temperatures included: Allentown: 31°; Binghamton: 33°; Boston: 39°; Bridgeport: 34°; Danbury: 28°; Harrisburg: 33°; Hartford: 32°; Islip: 33°; New Haven: 33°; Newark: 36°; Philadelphia: 36°; Poughkeepsie: 28°; Providence: 31°; Scranton: 32°; Westhampton: 25°; and, White Plains: 32°.

This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions early next week. However, an even colder air mass could arrive later next week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season.

Some of the guidance suggests the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. The area to the north and west of New York City and Newark, from northeastern Pennsylvania eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations.

For New York City, 7/51 (14%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 20%; Binghamton: 51%; Bridgeport: 20%; Harrisburg: 12%; Newark: 14%; Poughkeepsie: 31%; Scranton: 51%; and, White Plains: 14%.

After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely.

The more likely scenario involves the large area of much above normal height anomalies covering the Gulf of Alaska shifting toward the Bering Strait and then into eastern Siberia over the next two weeks. The disappearance of the negative EPO will then set the stage for a milder regime to develop and establish itself over much of the CONUS.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was -2.99 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.468.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On November 1, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.376.

Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude could reinforce this earlier MJO signal should it remain in that phase at high amplitude. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one.

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6 hours ago, binbisso said:

It's good to see the cold on our side of the globe with the record lows out west and possibly record lows in much of the East if the models are correct next weekend. I wonder if the low solar is having an impact on Temps this fall and will it carry over to winter? I'm hearing this is a lower minimum than 2008 and the lowest minimum since they've been keeping records

The solar minimum definitely helps, and should continue to help for the next few winters as well.

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3 hours ago, David-LI said:

What is the euro showing for around November 10-13, because the look on the GFS for the last few runs has been insane with that cold shot.

Nowhere near as cold but than again the euro I have only goes out till the 12th

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7 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

The solar minimum definitely helps, and should continue to help for the next few winters as well.

If we didn't have the solar min we definitely would have had widespread 100s this July on 2 days.  As it is, we barely missed, even here on the coast.

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has NYC getting  to around 25 on the 9th or 10th. This would make a 2nd top 5 earliest on record for NYC in 2 years. Just goes to show how extreme these November -EPO patterns have become since 2013. Be interesting to see how close NYC actually gets to 25 degrees. November 11th, 2017 was the 3rd earliest on record right behind 1976.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212
1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242
1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235
1873 03-27 (1873) 23 11-14 (1873) 23 231
1874 04-13 (1874) 22 11-14 (1874) 24 214
1905 03-15 (1905) 23 11-14 (1905) 20 243
1911 04-02 (1911) 24 11-14 (1911) 25 225

Wow, and it's never gotten to 25 or below before November has it?

I see we also have chances for snow, we're going to be on the northern fringe of a storm- a good place to be right now lol.

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, and it's never gotten to 25 or below before November has it?

I see we also have chances for snow, we're going to be on the northern fringe of a storm- a good place to be right now lol.

 

The lowest temperature in Central Park before November 1 was 28° on October 27, 1936.

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This is following our warm October to cold November pattern  that has been so persistent since 2013. Even with all the record warmth in the East during October, the CONUS had  its 6th coldest October since 1949. Several stations out West had their coldest October on record. The cold and -EPO blocking is finally shifting east for November like we have seen in recent years.

 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is following our warm October to cold November pattern  that has been so persistent since 2013. Even with all the record warmth in the East during October, the CONUS had  its 6th coldest October since 1949. Several stations out West had their coldest October on record. The cold and -EPO blocking is finally shifting east for November like we have seen in recent years.

 

Stuck and extreme patterns are out future. Hopefully we have a stuck pattern this winter that’s conducive for snow 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is following our warm October to cold November pattern  that has been so persistent since 2013. Even with all the record warmth in the East during October, the CONUS had  its 6th coldest October since 1949. Several stations out West had their coldest October on record. The cold and -EPO blocking is finally shifting east for November like we have seen in recent years.

 

If we get some kind of major or even moderate snowstorm this month lets see if your theory holds up that early season snow may be bad for us because when the pattern flips to mild it doesn't have enough time to flip back to cold and snowy again until half the season is over.

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Stuck and extreme patterns are out future. Hopefully we have a stuck pattern this winter that’s conducive for snow 

we should get stuck in a pattern like January 15th, to February 15th, 1961...

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At 11 am EST, temperatures were running near or even above the MOS forecast for 18z.

Bridgeport: 52°; 18z Forecast: 53°; Forecast high: 55°
Islip: 52°; 18z Forecast: 52°; Forecast high: 54°
New York City: 50°; 18z Forecast: 51°; Forecast high: 52°
Newark: 52°; 18z Forecast: 52°; Forecast high: 54°

As a result, readings in parts of the region could top out somewhat above what the MOS guidance had suggested.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If we get some kind of major or even moderate snowstorm this month lets see if your theory holds up that early season snow may be bad for us because when the pattern flips to mild it doesn't have enough time to flip back to cold and snowy again until half the season is over.

 

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason.  It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern.  There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter.  89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.  

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

33.3 this morning. Much colder than forecast. Radiated very well the past few nights 

Always go lower than OKX with low winds and clear skies. They’ve busted badly the last couple of nights here in NE Nassau. I’m sure you’ve had the same for your location as well. 

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50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason.  It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern.  There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter.  89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.  

Many folks share this view. Some concerns are increasing the odds that the holiday period will be very warm, such as recent years, also that the cold air mass is wasted because snow climo itself is still too early and hostile. 

However,  some areas of the country I have seen in the past do start early,  with cold and snow, and remain so during the heart of winter.  I hope this is not a head fake. 

I believe there are plenty of reasons to expect cold and snow in the NE this winter.

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November snowfalls 1" or more before the 20th...winter totals...

year..amount date...…..temp...snow...big snow...

1879...2.4" 11/4-5.....….38.5.....22.7".....4.0"....very mild winter for its time...

1953...2.2" 11/6...……….37.4.....15.8".....8.6"....Jan was the only cold and snowy period...otherwise quite mild...

2012...4.7" 11/7-8...…...36.9.....26.1"...11.4"....mild first half...cold and snowy second half...

1892...2.3" 11/9...……….28.4.....49.7".....9.1"....cold snowy winter...

1987...1.1" 11/11...……..34.7.....19.1".....5.8"....average temps with less snow than average...

2018...6.4" 11/15...……..36.2.....20.5".....6.4"....Nov and March did the heavy lifting...mild side...

1872...1.0" 11/16...……..28.3.....60.3"...18.0"....cold snowy winter...

1873...2.0" 11/18...……..34.0.....36.9".....7.5"....mild for its time with slightly above average snowfall...

1955...1.0" 11/19...……..32.7.....33.5"...11.6"....Cold beginning and end...Snowy March/April...cold overall...

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Most of today's 12z guidance is showing accumulating snow for the areas north and west of New York City and into Connecticut for Thursday night into Friday those models include the Euro the icon and the Canadian

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