40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Man, 12.8 for the low and just 35.6 for the hi. Frigid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self... I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems" That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive... 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Can we save this for Christmas please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Can we save this for Christmas please Some monsters in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Enso neutral per Climate.gov , some claiming El Niño are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Steve will be by the web cam with the doggies...licking the screen and all...right there with them.. Has to suck to live in a town where the only excitement weather wise is deciding what to wear when emptying the diaper pail in the outside trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Enso neutral per Climate.gov , some claiming El Niño are wrong. It’s about the atmospheric response though. Not some sort of index value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s about the atmospheric response though. Not some sort of index value. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 If the euro seasonal thinks we're getting normal 2m temps then it actually means it probably has a frigid H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If the euro seasonal thinks we're getting normal 2m temps then it actually means it probably has a frigid H5 pattern. I forgot to add 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive... 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month. I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 If we assume that configuration, I would think the cold is certainly further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Ben Noll has his newest seasonal ecwmf and ukmet snowfall anomaly charts available https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 Front loaded winter it seems by those anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks a pretty cool event for you N folks As long as I don’t need to re-peat that saying for most storms late December to Early March i May stay sane this winter Just move to Stowe Bro! Actually, move to Burlington where there is some type of night life and be in striking distance to Stowe and Jay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Front loaded winter it seems by those anomalies. Also could go cold and dry as we say congrats Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Does that dude forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Does that dude forecast? I think he just makes maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Early Novie of yore 11/12 32.1 13.6 1" 11/13 21.1 8.5 11/14 27.6 10.4 Already 4 daily max temps of 32F or less (31.8F 11/8). Switch flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Early Novie of yore 11/12 32.1 13.6 1" 11/13 21.1 8.5 11/14 27.6 10.4 Already 4 daily max temps of 32F or less (31.8F 11/8). Switch flipped. but how much snow, that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: but how much snow, that is the question. Only 1" on Tuesday, but it's pretty impressive that I'll wake up with almost the same amount come Friday morning. The only loss is ironically due to sublimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway Its slow because its moving like 1.5 points per month. If that isn't below average, then what is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 EPS with some fun around T Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 EPS (0Z) looks a lot better vs 12 z in the long range (11-15) particularly wrt the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Snowy ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Icy look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 could be some decent icing up north...wow. I want a damaging ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 the NNE winter we hoped for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Climo ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 This is pretty cool to see. I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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