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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

:lol:missed 3 days in a row, this is getting old here in white plains, missed again.

Me too. Nearest station to me is under .1 for the week and only .01 today. Still under an inch since mid July unless I'm forgetting something.

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15 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Me too. Nearest station to me is under .1 for the week and only .01 today. Still under an inch since mid July unless I'm forgetting something.

I've had almost no rain in the Bronx this August. My neighbor's squash looks crisped.

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18z 3k NAM brings in a heavy complex of storms into the area later tonight(also showing modest SBCAPE/MUCAPE around ~1500j/kg with decent shear values). Im thinking it might be right as current radar shows a developing complex in NE PA, with a warned storm just N of Allentown. See what happens later!

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On 8/21/2019 at 8:54 AM, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that such summers will gradually become more common within a decade or two.

I'd rather have more heat and less humidity :(  The water here on Long Island is awful, we're seeing a lot of health problems from the rise in infections due to bacteria in the water.  We also have new species of ticks that have come here and carry infections.

What puzzles me is that although the humidity has been really high here, the summer has still been rather dry in SW Nassau.  Things are starting to turn yellow.  Why isn't all that humidity precipitating?

 

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

90 here. Probably last of the year 

We havent hit 90 in August until now.  It doesn't matter though, mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s is a lot worse than 90s with dry heat.  Hell, it feels worse than even 100 degrees with dry heat.

 

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we're seeing a lot of health problems from the rise in infections due to bacteria in the water. 

 

Liberty, can you elaborate on this?   Are you a physician?  What types of health problems are you referring to?  Pulmonary?

Auto-immune issues? 

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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

90 here. Probably last of the year 

Just got a 90 (89.5) in myself.  I'm sure we'll see a day or two in September of 90+ on the island.

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Earlier today, Islip set a daily record high temperature of 91° (old record: 89°, 1976 and 2005); Boston tied its daily record high temperature of 93°, which was set in 1955 and tied in 2003; and, New York City-LGA tied its daily record of 93°, which was set in 2003.

After some overnight showers and possibly a thunderstorm, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions from tomorrow into early next week.

With the arrival of cooler air imminent, the following are 90° days to date for select cities:

Allentown: 20
Baltimore: 48
Boston: 14
Charleston, SC: 61
Harrisburg: 29
Hartford: 26
Islip: 8
New York City-JFK: 6
New York City-LGA: 23
New York City-NYC: 14
Newark: 23
Norfolk: 45
Philadelphia: 31
Providence:12
Raleigh: 59
Richmond: 54
Savannah: 83
Sterling: 45
Washington, DC: 51

Across western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.

Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. The probability of a record warm August has increased. There is an implied 63% probability that 2019 could set a new August record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm) in Anchorage.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was 3.16 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.916. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.

On August 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.114 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.102.

Finally, New York City has an implied 67% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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Incoming...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC013-017-039-NYC047-085-230045-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0075.190822T2354Z-190823T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Southern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Richmond County in southeastern New York...
  Kings County in southeastern New York...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 753 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Morristown,
  moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Plainfield and Summit around 805 PM EDT.
  Orange around 810 PM EDT.
  Clark and Union around 815 PM EDT.
  Newark and Elizabeth around 820 PM EDT.
  Port Richmond around 825 PM EDT.
  Jersey City and Bayonne around 830 PM EDT.
  The Verrazano Narrows Bridge and Bay Ridge around 835 PM EDT.
  Flatbush and Coney Island around 840 PM EDT.
  Sheepshead Bay around 845 PM EDT.

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I’m in Harlem and it just got super windy out of nowhere. Checked the radar and see I’m about to get annihilated, totally unexpected.

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Okay this is easily the most intense thunderstorm I’ve seen in ages. Buckets of rain blowing in every direction. Legit tropical storm conditions but with thunder and lightning.

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