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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week.

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week.

Yep

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watch off the african coast for next storm with high in the Atlantic ocean building too on today 12zrun ecwmf i dont think we are done yet for long track storm across the ocean .

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No idea what you’re talking about?

Karens coming

 Kevin said

 his face is red

 time for bed

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week.

Such a monster storm . 

Waste of swell potential here given recurve at 45 W  ....could of been huge 

i see maybe 3.5-4.5 @ 17 seconds on bouys in a week-10 day’s 

Humberto delivered 9 @ 12.8 seconds in Rye NH last weekend  

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4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Such a monster storm . 

Waste of swell potential here given recurve at 45 W  ....could of been huge 

i see maybe 3.5-4.5 @ 17 seconds on bouys in a week-10 day’s 

Humberto delivered 9 @ 12.8 seconds in Rye NH last weekend  

Yeah, that seems about right. The amazing thing about. Swell with periods of 15+ seconds is the amount of energy they contain. Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger.  So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell. Lucky for me on of the best on the east coast south of RI happens to be clos

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10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

. Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger.  So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell.

When I think nice long period swell I look at the YouTube vids of perfect storm sending humongous NE swell down into Palm beach Surprising many . Accounts of one day had 3-4 foot NE swell jacking up to 20 feet on bouys by Afternoonin Palm beach from perfect storm far away 

18 feet @20 seconds was peak swell

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24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Time to stick a fork in the tropical season for another year it seems 

Lol...this can be said for almost every year up here in SNE.  Who knows, maybe we get surprised with a rogue storm that gets in here??  As we all know/and can remember, October can be volatile when it wants to be...

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50 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Time to stick a fork in the tropical season for another year it seems 

"September remember; October all-over"  ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" 

This is the Opal time of year.  Home growns, as it were...  Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows...  That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. 

Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin might have been a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"September remember; October all-over"  ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" 

This the Opal time of year.  Home growns, as it were...  Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows...  That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. 

Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin as that one appeared to be a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A... 

I was hoping to book a last minute vacation to the Outer Banks, October can be wonderful or dreadful down there....I have been watching closely for next week, the front looks like it is going to get hung up somewhere along the east coast, I wonder if something tries to develop next week along that front, somewhere along the SE coast?  

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4 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

I was hoping to book a last minute vacation to the Outer Banks, October can be wonderful or dreadful down there....I have been watching closely for next week, the front looks like it is going to get hung up somewhere along the east coast, I wonder if something tries to develop next week along that front, somewhere along the SE coast?  

Maybe ... I'm not sure how well the model performance is for those specific facet regions/ways in which these cyclones formulate  - so if they are latching onto anything now, I'm not an authority on anything.   I just know the climate regions.  I mean ... a front meandering down there and book-ending a low that starts going out of control is bit different causally/physically in the models than a CV wave kiting westward along the 15th parallel ... couple K east of the Windwards.  Different atmospheric kinematics.  I will say, ...I was singularly impressed with the handling of Lorenzo in the models... particularly the Euro!  It flagged that thing closing off and deepening smartly some six days prior to it emerging off the coast of Sierra Leone.    No problem - nailed it.  Actually the other guidance latched on early too... just happen to notice the Euro first so not sure who/what really gets the trophy.  

But this has been true in recent seasons... We're probably ... oh somewhere in the 50% success for spin-rate vs phantoms ...compared to back in the 1990s - you didn't dare enter a cumulus cloud into the modeling grids or you'd wipe islands off the face of the Earth.  Seems the models have improved overall with genesis points...  That said, yeah...I've been noticing a tendency for cyclonic curvature between the Gulf and Bermuda.. I'm also noticing - as I discussed elsewhere - this propensity for over-top high pressure to spread ESE from Canada through NE and the lower Maritimes..  That preponderant activity is putting enhanced baroclinicity and enhanced easterly trades in general into that same region.  These are not altogether bad omens for development prospect so maybe keep and eye on things. 

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11 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Belfast banger....even the UK can score one but we can't

You're our new offa king.

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