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April Discobs 2019


George BM
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Chance of s*** this week, chance of thunder the next...

(snip)

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds are abundant at present, but low levels remain dry,
and temps have dropped into the 20s and 30s. There should be
some veiled sun this morning, but clouds will thicken this
afternoon as low pressure developing over the Carolina coast
moves northeastward. Expect rain to begin overspreading central
VA around midday and reach the metro late this afternoon, near
or during rush hour. The back edge looks like it will be near or
just west of the Blue Ridge, and the higher elevations there
will likely be just cold enough to see some snow, with a coating
possible along Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Elsewhere, just a chilly rain, mostly light, with amounts
generally less than a third of an inch. Highs today will be
mostly in the 40s and low 50s.

(snip)

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm air advection precip will spread north across the area Thu
night and continue through Fri as shortwave-trough over the OH
Valley moves east. Mid-upper level ridge then builds over the
East early next week leading to a significant warming trend.

Then models show falling heights over eastern North America as
broad trough develops. The GFS is faster than the Euro in
eroding the mid- upper level ridge, but this eventually leads to
a stormy unsettled wx pattern with frequent opportunities for
showers and even t- storms. Will add a chance of thunder for Mon
and Tue.

(snip)

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2 hours ago, 87storms said:

you wouldn't think we'd miss the precip tonight based on the wv loop:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animw.html

what i could see happening is that the upper level energy washes out a bit and the coastal forms too far east.  maybe that's what the gfs is hinting at.

It's the boxing day set-up, only in April. I am fine with it this time around.

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17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's the boxing day set-up, only in April. I am fine with it this time around.

yea, that's what i keep thinking whenever i see that type of a setup lol.  since i'm off tomorrow, i really didn't care for any type of nasty weather anyway.  i think wind will be the biggest impact here...hopefully not too much of that.

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