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We really need to get some met commentary in here.  Radar is showing a much stronger front thump developing with (maybe) a look of a few discrete cells out ahead of the main line?  Somebody posted the HRRR forecasted rotation tracks earlier and this event could get out of hand really quick if that proves true.  

Way above my pay grade here.  Would love some pro comments as folks will be headed outside as soon as 3 hours from now.  (Stubborn folks that balk at moving to Friday but think they will walk their 3 year olds in a driving rain)  Grrrr....

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25 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

We really need to get some met commentary in here.  Radar is showing a much stronger front thump developing with (maybe) a look of a few discrete cells out ahead of the main line?  Somebody posted the HRRR forecasted rotation tracks earlier and this event could get out of hand really quick if that proves true.  

Way above my pay grade here.  Would love some pro comments as folks will be headed outside as soon as 3 hours from now.  (Stubborn folks that balk at moving to Friday but think they will walk their 3 year olds in a driving rain)  Grrrr....

Wind picking up here, discreets are forming, can hear thunder in the distance 

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

We really need to get some met commentary in here.  Radar is showing a much stronger front thump developing with (maybe) a look of a few discrete cells out ahead of the main line?  Somebody posted the HRRR forecasted rotation tracks earlier and this event could get out of hand really quick if that proves true.  

Way above my pay grade here.  Would love some pro comments as folks will be headed outside as soon as 3 hours from now.  (Stubborn folks that balk at moving to Friday but think they will walk their 3 year olds in a driving rain)  Grrrr....

It was me that posted that HRRR data from 11AM this morning. The wind profiles are picking up across the Upstate of SC and Western NC with these storms per the Base wind velocity and composite from both the Greer and Columbia NWS radars. I would be watching those discrete cells that are crossing Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson counties as they get closer to Spartanburg and Cherokee counties.  The instability levels are much higher over the Spartanburg area and Gaffney because of the sunshine from earlier today.  These cells could start to further intensify as they head towards the Charlotte Metro.

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Def think some supercell tornadoes are possible along I40 this evening. Sunshine breaking out today has made things volatile in the Piedmont of NC.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

Def think some supercell tornadoes are possible along I40 this evening. Sunshine breaking out today has made things volatile in the Piedmont of NC.

Just hoping they hold off until after 8pm. WRAL is concerned about pop-up storms before the main band. 

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I'm surprised that there are basically no watches for the Piedmont of NC and SC. Only the extreme northern counties, thus far. Especially considering the southern portion of the line and the discrete ones in GA look a lot more eerie than the northern portion. Of course, that could change.

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I was just wondering the same thing....why no watches with this???  Especially on Halloween. Folks in my neighborhood are oblivious to the weather and are losing their minds about Kernersville moving to tomorrow night.  You would think RAH or Blacksburg would err on the side of caution here?

 

Edit - I stand corrected.  I see the Tornado Watch issued for border counties north.  I'll assume RAH is evaluating.

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4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I was just wondering the same thing....why no watches with this???  Especially on Halloween. Folks in my neighborhood are oblivious to the weather and are losing their minds about Kernersville moving to tomorrow night.  You would think RAH or Blacksburg would err on the side of caution here?

Spoke too soon, and this appears to cover a pretty large area. Still awaiting the graphic. 

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Yeah the graphic they have for the watch is all wrong here's the text:

 

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Columbia SC
   to 30 miles northeast of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU8).

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There were 2 tornado watches that have been issued in the last 30 minutes.  Everyone from DC to GSP are now under a tornado watch.

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The NAM and HRRR both support an isolated severe event on Monday 12/30. Another HSLC set up. Maybe we’ll fit in one more lightning bolt to wrap up 2019. 

A3747C5A-302C-498A-A374-60BB672FE984.png

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8 hours ago, jjwxman said:

The NAM and HRRR both support an isolated severe event on Monday 12/30. Another HSLC set up. Maybe we’ll fit in one more lightning bolt to wrap up 2019. 

A3747C5A-302C-498A-A374-60BB672FE984.png

It has that kind of feel out there for sure. Sun is out in Raleigh and it is already over 70F out. Low clouds are racing by so there is definitely no shortage of low level wind shear.

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This came out of nowhere...

Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
809 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms capable of localized wind gusts up to 40 mph
or even a brief tornado will be possible through 11 PM.

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Questions remain in Alabama due to morning rain on Saturday. Euro has consistently hammered Mississippi and the GFS has now slowed down to do the same. NAM going nearly unidirectional upstairs is a real party pooper for fans of intense severe weather though.

Saturday is still the back half of the NAM (as of Thursday writing) where NAM accuracy falls off. However the accuracy issue is usually on mesoscale details. Upper wind fields is a larger scale issue. I'm afraid the GFS/Euro will trend toward the semi-unidirectional NAM. Sure it has helicity off the charts, but that is mostly speed shear. Turning is meh on the NAM. It would be a strong but sloppy line.

Now the GFS and Euro (globals) both still have a classic winter Dixie outbreak. Globals start turning 700 mb wind, with 500 mb southwest or better. NAM has 700 mb barely west of south and 500 mb still SSW. They all have a mess at 200 mb, but the globals have enough turning up to 500 mb for a lot of severe wx and some tornadoes. Plus they all have robust LLJs.

Instability is marginal, but that is normal in winter severe weather. Tonight or Friday morning, one could check fcst soundings for where that instability lies Saturday; low level or mid-level. If low level (just a few thousand ft AGL) it only takes a few hundred CAPE for severe. If mid-level only it's tough to light the candle. Such mesoscale detail isn't clear until about a day to 36 hours ahead.

If everything comes together, one would expect that secondary warm front, originating from the Gulf Coast front, to lift north of I-20 or even US-82. Worst action would be from there south. Otherwise it's a sloppy rain-out except down on the Gulf Coast.

Most of this was copied from my Tennessee Valley post. However it looks like the worst of it will be this Southeast Region, because of central/southern Mississippi and Alabama. Even there it could underachieve if the NAM is right.

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