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General Severe Weather

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March 14 has a thread in Tennessee Valley. I called it Pi Day being a little silly. At first we thought most of the severe weather would be in our region. As it evolved south of the Tenn Valley people just kept going on the thread. Sorry if we hijacked your region. :)

At any rate, it is a fairly interesting thread. Posts show the progression of thought from forecast to nowcasts to reports. Cheers! 

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Thursday severe weather is possible in southern Mississippi. Models forecast adequate speed and directional shear. Appears moisture will be there in time, especially I-20 south. 

I would focus on the lifting boundary showed by both conceptual models and numerical models. Morning rain is forecast in northern Mississippi. Should keep a lifting warm-front like feature defined. Pre-frontal trough comes in from the west ahead of the cold front, key for robust severe. Right on the cold front is usually trash. Prefrontal trough can be better.

Intersection of those boundaries is currently forecast in central Mississippi. More rain would push it toward I-20. Less rain would put northern Mississippi in play.

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HRRR tries to get supercells going on the warm front in Mississippi on Saturday. No other CAM (I've seen) agrees. Warm mid-levels. Erratic upper level winds (bad hodograph). Bulk shear is good and so is instability. However I'm real skeptical of anything but a messy blob. Good news for folks who don't like intense severe. Though some wind/hail is likely.

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18Z NAM showing some strong cells in central NC Monday night.  RAH mentions severe threat with an isolated tornado possible.

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Here's the 12z HRRR sounding over central NC at 20z.  Storms begin to initiate shortly after this sounding at 21z.  Damaging winds, and hail seem to be the main threats.  Wouldn't rule out a spin up on the more discrete cells that form ahead of the main line of convection.  

hrrr_2019040812_008_35.85--79.27.png

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40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems awfully wedgy this morning for severe. But there's time to clear out a bit I suppose.

It want be long until the sun starts to break through.  

image.png.f1a171e46d4a3ff60a25c675d40c4582.png

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RAH: 10:50AM

Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this 
morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to 
dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting 
in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding 
depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model 
projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon 
with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to 
materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection 
depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus 
convection and enhance low level shear/helicity.

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8 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH: 10:50AM

Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this 
morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to 
dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting 
in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding 
depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model 
projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon 
with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to 
materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection 
depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus 
convection and enhance low level shear/helicity.

That's good analysis from RAH.  The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally.  

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47 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

That's good analysis from RAH.  The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally.  

We broke out around 10am in the coastal plains and the temp jumped up fast. Still under mostly full sun with a few high clouds at times. HRRR has cone around to showi g a better line of storms so we will see if these inhibiting factors can be overcome.

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Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off.....

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It stayed cloud covered so long this morning in the Triad that I thought for sure we were in the clear.  Now sitting in a hot sun, 76° and watching some towers starting to rise back towards winston.  Could get interesting!

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Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in.

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15 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in.

Its humid as hell. Over here in Currituck.  At least those frozen wins off the sound we've had the past several days are gone. 83 degrees.  Haven't turned on the AC yet but it's starting to get warm in the house.

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Nothing even remotely interesting materialized here in the center of the Triad but hey look it's more rain...

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1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Its humid as hell. Over here in Currituck.  At least those frozen wins off the sound we've had the past several days are gone. 83 degrees.  Haven't turned on the AC yet but it's starting to get warm in the house.

We were at jockeys ridge Saturday and it was so much windier on top of the dunes than even the parking lot. Wish I had my kestrel with me. It was pretty darn chilly too with waves of sea fog rolling past us.

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Under our first severe warning of the year. Hearing some boomers out there. Hard to believe that 6 days ago it was only 37 degrees out! 81/64 currently.

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Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham:

56744717_10106116423679829_2460268489621

56723907_10106116423624939_7817521553158

 

And before the storms it looked like this in Durham:
56505467_10106115991720479_8719857726366

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham:
 

Did you take those pictures with a drone?

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Had a good squall line pass through SW Harnett county, have been out of power for about 3 hours.  Heavy rain, tons of lightning and quarter sized hail!

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3 hours ago, tramadoc said:

Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in.

That sucks but better now than mid-August.

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Looking at radar and the squall line is over the Chowan River and headed towards me in Pasquotank County. It’s about 2015 hours and I should see the storms by 2100. The wind has picked up appreciably in the last hour or so. It’s also cooled off quite a bit since sundown. I can see lightning to the west and hear the thunder as well. Gonna suck having to put the windows down with the HVAC out, but I have a nice big Wind Machine floor fan. Hopefully I can sleep without sweating my b**ls off.

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