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The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right before this, it was also in Winthrop, but it was at least further north more on land and not at a treatment plant in the middle of the atlantic ocean.

Right. Might as well put it out at 44013 at this point. 

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Like Jerry said most intense storm since 15. This had a Jan 2011 feel.  Good call Kev on the upped 12 to 18

20190304_112530.png

We only picked up 11 inches here...good storm for sure, especially for this year.  But we didn’t get into the real super heavy rates here like some did.  It snowed hard and steady...but nothing to write home about here...nothing like the late January 2011 Beast that  came through here. That had blizzard and whiteout conditions with it here; last nights did not.  Those of you who came in with 15 and 16 inches with this one congrats!!  

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53 minutes ago, jmcrae66 said:

I’m in Sandy Hook and had just about 12 on the button on the patio table.  

See I can measure on the patio table since the back of the house faces North so I’m blocked from Southerly enhancement and my roofs have steep slopes so any wind could enhance snow amounts on the table. Funny thing is, when I first moved here.... I was reporting lower than surrounding areas until I realized my board was being blocked by the garage a bit and by the woods. Now I magically run high so next season I’m putting a camera out there to see if there are any non natural snowfall ehancements.

#snowmeasuringbeserious

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6” final of snow and ip. Congrats to folks who caught the big one. Not easy to do this winter. I thought it was going to cut but instead it bucked the seasonal trend and gave you guys a winter parting gift.

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With all the technology out there where are the automatic snow depth sensors? Infared triangulation and ultrasonic sensors are extremely accurate and cheap. 

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48 minutes ago, BrianW said:

With all the technology out there where are the automatic snow depth sensors? Infared triangulation and ultrasonic sensors are extremely accurate and cheap. 

They are okay for snow depth, but not so much for official measurements of new snowfall since there's no way to automatically clear the board without moving parts (unless you want to invest in something really expensive). The NWS really tries to refrain from sensors with moving parts (hence the move to ultrasonic anemometers). Infrared sensors can struggle with depth measurements with sunshine, but that wouldn't be a huge issue while snow is falling. Ultrasonics aren't perfect either, especially with high ratio snows, although the technology has gotten better. But yeah, I think the clearing is the issue.

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3 hours ago, TheSnowman said:
   2 N Rehoboth          25.7   800 AM  3/04  

 

BUT but but, they TOOK OUT the Burrillville 17.0", and still haven't put mine in.  OK what the hell?  Now they Did tell me.... They have to Watch which towns they post and What amounts they post because Governments give certain treatment to towns based on amounts.  This has to be it... because Providence County is a Mess now.  And 25.7"??  What in Jesus please.  How do they allow that?  16 year old working the data slip that in while playing games on his phone?  

It may have ben an error where they meant to type "15.7" and not the "25.7" you see.

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pasters will have high variance reports within a short distance. I’m looking at upton’s snowfall report and mine sticks out to others in the area. I think there are too many low reports though, especially from the public or the media. When compared to a trained spotter in Monroe who reported 12.0”, my 13.75” is within the margin of error when you factor in elevation, measuring spot, frequency of clearing, and other random factors. 

There was a noticeable increase in accumulations as you went east from where I am in Mahopac (NY) through Danbury and then towards you. It was definitely elevation based too.

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We only picked up 11 inches here...good storm for sure, especially for this year.  But we didn’t get into the real super heavy rates here like some did.  It snowed hard and steady...but nothing to write home about here...nothing like the late January 2011 Beast that  came through here. That had blizzard and whiteout conditions with it here; last nights did not.  Those of you who came in with 15 and 16 inches with this one congrats!!  

There were 2 storms in Jan

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Just for the record, 14” in East Woonsocket, RI. 

 

The title of this thread is perfect for what for what happened last night. 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There were 2 storms in Jan

I know that Ginxy.  Last nights wasn’t like either of them here In Southington. Last night was not that impressive here.  11 inches is a good hit..but nothing extraordinary.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, totally foregettable event here.

I agree completely.  It was a nice storm..but forgettable is the perfect word for it.  But it was a nice ending to a horrible season..glad we scored a decent/significant event.  

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Very forgettable here too...no big rates,etc

anything from 5 to 6 would be acceptable but I could in no way go any higher without being a fraud

 

most of western mass pretty meh with this one, some slightly higher amounts just to the south which is normal

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree completely.  It was a nice storm..but forgettable is the perfect word for it.  But it was a nice ending to a horrible season..glad we scored a decent/significant event.  

11 with no big rates?? No 2/hr stuff even for a couple hours?

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9 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

11 with no big rates?? No 2/hr stuff even for a couple hours?

Like I said earlier...it snowed very steady and at a good rate(I’d say about an inch per hour) for the whole storm.  Started about 5:45 pm and it was over by 5:00 am.  A little over 11hours of duration, and 11 inches of snow.  No 2”/hr rates here that I saw.  If we did..we’d have the 15-16 inches that some got with this one.  

 

But if the thing was a slow mover and it snowed for 18-20 hours and we picked up 20”, then that would be a memorable event to me. This wasn’t that unfortunately here. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

11” here. I’ll always remember this one. Special storm 

Yea. You don’t get double digits THAT often (at least me) and the fact it came in less than 12hrs with how pastey it was caked to everything...memorable. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. You don’t get double digits THAT often (at least me) and the fact it came in less than 12hrs with how pastey it was caked to everything...memorable. 

In a year of 3 weeks of winter .. you remember the only blockbuster for the rest of your life. 4-5” rates for folks 

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, totally foregettable event here.

Same. The pre-Thanksgiving storm and cold were memorable since they were anomalous but otherwise this winter was completely forgettable barring a major end of season hit. Not even any notable cold or warmth. Just months of meh. 

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25 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

11 with no big rates?? No 2/hr stuff even for a couple hours?

It was 1.5-2" an hour around 12-3 am here, missed out on the crazy stuff though. Not particularly memorable but highlight of the winter (barring some big storm yet to come) I suppose.

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18 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

It was 1.5-2" an hour around 12-3 am here, missed out on the crazy stuff though. Not particularly memorable but highlight of the winter (barring some big storm yet to come) I suppose.

This, though I never hit 2”/hr rates which is fine. I can see how it’d be memorable for those that got obliterated. 

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Some post-storm analysis of guidance... nothing really groundbreaking here, we all had a sense the mesos did excellent on this

I thought a visual summary of the guidance history could supplement our anecdotal / tired recollection.

Major caveat is that this uses only a 10:1 snowfall map. I considered using qpf but I did not think that the captured end result we care about as well (e.g. R/S lines which played a factor), and I do not have a qpf map other than the digital accumulation maps.

Also, not sure why but PivotalWeather shreds the 12k NAM 6z/18z runs.

As you can see:

• Mesos were indeed excellent. 12k NAM / Euro may have been the best in the final 12 hours. 

• 12k / 3k NAM had the best jack zone of the pike region. Euro / RGEM was always too far south. 

• GFS was terrible. Way too dry throughout. Completely useless.

• ECMWF characteristically made slow incremental changes in the same direction towards the best solution.

• RGEM was first to latch on to widespread double digits. Not redeeming a terrible performance most of the season.

Post_Storm_Model_Comparison_48hrs.thumb.jpg.c5005079f9a5f8884b831f8a6471d924.jpg

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In a year of 3 weeks of winter .. you remember the only blockbuster for the rest of your life. 4-5” rates for folks 

I agree with this sentiment. If this event had been sandwiched in the middle of Feb '15 I could see it slipping into obscurity, but given the utter lack of interesting events this winter, this will be an event I'll remember from this year. 

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6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Some post-storm analysis of guidance... nothing really groundbreaking here, we all had a sense the mesos did excellent on this

I thought a visual summary of the guidance history could supplement our anecdotal / tired recollection.

Major caveat is that this uses only a 10:1 snowfall map. I considered using qpf but I did not think that the captured end result we care about as well (e.g. R/S lines which played a factor), and I do not have a qpf map other than the digital accumulation maps.

Also, not sure why but PivotalWeather shreds the 12k NAM 6z/18z runs.

As you can see:

• Mesos were indeed excellent. 12k NAM / Euro may have been the best in the final 12 hours. 

• 12k / 3k NAM had the best jack zone of the pike region. Euro / RGEM was always too far south. 

• GFS was terrible. Way too dry throughout. Completely useless.

• ECMWF characteristically made slow incremental changes in the same direction towards the best solution.

• RGEM was first to latch on to widespread double digits. Not redeeming a terrible performance most of the season.

Post_Storm_Model_Comparison_48hrs.thumb.jpg.c5005079f9a5f8884b831f8a6471d924.jpg

I lol at that GFS comment. Time after time over the years we see people say that. If they shut down the entire Gfs suite, no one would notice or even blink 

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The euro also was a driving rainstorm a few days before and then jumped SE. it was pretty bad even a few days out. But over last 48 hours it did better. It was a hair too warm though. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro also was a driving rainstorm a few days before and then jumped SE. it was pretty bad even a few days out. But over last 48 hours it did better. It was a hair too warm though. 

For sure... I couldn't find 24-hour snowfall maps (vs. total snowfall that is hard to distinguish from preceding Fri-Sat event) to capture how (badly) Euro and others did days before. The consensus Friday was that Sunday would be a snow-to-rain mess for most of SNE.

I mean, look at this... 72 hour (!) prog of 12z Euro... and ironically, the GFS Friday for the same time:

12z_ECMWF_3_days_before_storm_showing_rainstorm.thumb.jpg.2273d2f660ff7e06c8906759c183ce39.jpg  18z_GFS_3_days_before_storm.thumb.jpg.24f390abb53244e8699993ab56e3446d.jpg

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41 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I agree with this sentiment. If this event had been sandwiched in the middle of Feb '15 I could see it slipping into obscurity, but given the utter lack of interesting events this winter, this will be an event I'll remember from this year. 

Yep... though in March, this event was the "first child" of winter storms for many of us in SNE.

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