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wdrag

OBS thread 2P Mar 3-10A Mar 4 (snow, possible sleet s fringe)

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like 4.8 at LGA vs 2.2 at JFK. Typical for the North Shore  to do better  when we have marginal temperatures like this.

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This would have been a bigger snowstorm if there was a nice high to the north or the storm bombed out.

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54 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Event post-mortem...

Call: 6-10" NYC Metro, north shore LI, NE Jersey, lower Hudson Valley and CT

3-6" with mixing Jersey shore, south shore and the forks.

 

What worked:  

Lower Hudson Valley, NE Jersey, Connecticut.    Generally aligned with expectations there as dendritic growth was solid, band cranked out 2"/hr precip rates.  Widespread 6-10" totals will verify.

The mixing idea along the Jersey shore, south shore and forks held down totals there.  3-6" will verify for many, but barely.

 

What busted:  Central Park ASOS is reporting 5", which is an inch lower than my forecast.  I consider this a bust for Manhattan, likely a chunk of Queens and the north shore LI pending OKX final storm report. IP line was far just enough north during the  evening we lost snow to sleet, that makes a difference.  That, plus a temp of 33 led to very little accumulation until the band came through.  As a result, busted too high on low end of range for lower Manhattan, northern Brooklyn and I think Queens (though I may squeak by there, 4-8" would've been a better forecast).    I consider SI and south shore Brooklyn as a coastal area, I'm not overly surprised there was less snow and mixing there.

 

In short, the northward tongue in the mid-levels was battling against some pretty impressive snowfall rates.  Should've been more cautious in LI and in NYC specifically given this is March. 

Honestly I think the park was an estimate. I had 4” at 120th and Broadway on a wide open college campus lawn. I had very little sleet here. The problem was trouble accumulating until the heaviest rates moved in. .5 before and 3.5” during. Only about a tenth of an inch of sleet at the very end

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Honestly I think the park was an estimate. I had 4” at 120th and Broadway on wide open college campus lawn. I had very little sleet here. The problem was trouble accumulating until the heaviest rates moved in. .5 before and 3.5” during. Only about a tenth of an inch of sleet at the very end

Did u measure exactly when the accumulating snow stopped? I ask cause of the weight of the snow and temps will cause you to start losing snow the minute it stops. Central park definitely does not estimate 

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There were some signs of this under performing for parts of the NYC area.

 

1.The mixing line was racing northward faster than most models had it

2. Marginal situations are terrible for the south shores of the NYC area

3. No cold high to the north which is needed for our area since we live near the water.

4. 850s weren't favorable at all

 

I have 15.6 inches for the winter

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As for not sticking to the pavement for a long time, we did have quite a bit of sunlight yesterday as well. I was amazed driving to Jersey at how nice the weather was earlier in the day. This time of year, that sun can really warm up those dark surfaces. Still absolutely gorgeous to look at outside now.

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Just measured 8" here. I know that's less than it should be, since at 12:40 I had 7.5" (snowed for awhile after).  I wasn't staying up all night though after working both days this weekend.

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5" at Central Park is like when the NFL season is over and the Houston Texans go 11-5 and win the division and you go, "huh." but you know it's meaningless and they'll be out in the first round.

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11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Just measured 8" here. I know that's less than it should be, since at 12:40 I had 7.5" (snowed for awhile after).  I wasn't staying up all night though after working both days this weekend.

Saw 9" reported from Kinnelon, where I grew up, and perhaps a couple hundred feet higher elevation than where you are.  Current homestead too far NW for the good stuff, will finish with 3-4".

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Just now, tamarack said:

Saw 9" reported from Kinnelon, where I grew up, and perhaps a couple hundred feet higher elevation than where you are.

Thank you.  That's totally reasonable.  Kinnelon has some high spots, I'm right on the border across town in Butler.

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30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There were some signs of this under performing for parts of the NYC area.

 

1.The mixing line was racing northward faster than most models had it

2. Marginal situations are terrible for the south shores of the NYC area

3. No cold high to the north which is needed for our area since we live near the water.

4. 850s weren't favorable at all

 

I have 15.6 inches for the winter

The signs were there all along.  Too many people ignored them and didn’t remain objective.   They allowed their personal wants to interfere with their forecasts

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3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Thank you.  That's totally reasonable.  Kinnelon has some high spots, I'm right on the border across town in Butler.

My old place was near West Fayson Lake at 700', bordering land of the Butler reservoir watershed, and I'm old enough to have been among the last class of Kinnelon students to graduate from BHS.  In some marginal events, higher spots like the 850-900 of Stonybrook Highlands would get a lot more than at home.

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2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

The signs were there all along.  Too many people ignored them and didn’t remain objective.   They allowed their personal wants to interfere with their forecasts

A lot of weenies on the board (myself included) lol

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20 minutes ago, hooralph said:

5" at Central Park is like when the NFL season is over and the Houston Texans go 11-5 and win the division and you go, "huh." but you know it's meaningless and they'll be out in the first round.

With LGA at 4.8 inches 5.0 seems like a safe bet in Central Park when the snow ended around 3:30. I'm sure the streets didn't accumulate anywhere near that but that's not how snow is officially measured anywhere. I get the analogy though, if you're staring down from a 20th floor apartment onto 32nd street you're probably thinking 5 inches? where?

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I got more snow with the little system on Saturday than i did with the bigger one last night.

2.2 inches last night

15.6 for the winter

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5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

The signs were there all along.  Too many people ignored them and didn’t remain objective.   They allowed their personal wants to interfere with their forecasts

Almost everyone went with 4-8 for the city.

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My old place was near West Fayson Lake at 700', bordering land of the Butler reservoir watershed, and I'm old enough to have been among the last class of Kinnelon students to graduate from BHS.  In some marginal events, higher spots like the 850-900 of Stonybrook Highlands would get a lot more than at home.

Alright, I know exactly where that is.  I'm pretty close to Bubbling Brook road, which leads up to the other side of the reservoir.  Elevation varies a lot around here as you know, and so in marginal events (like during the spring) totals tend to differ.

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3 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said:

A lot of weenies on the board (myself included) lol

The signs were there once the storm began but most models did not see the warm layer persisting so long on the coast. I certainly had my doubts here on the UWS once we were several hours in and I didn’t even see snow accumulate on car tops - just like many events last March where areas just to the N&W cashed in big time.

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5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With LGA at 4.8 inches 5.0 seems like a safe bet in Central Park when the snow ended around 3:30. I'm sure the streets didn't accumulate anywhere near that but that's not how snow is officially measured anywhere. I get the analogy though, if you're staring down from a 20th floor apartment onto 32nd street you're probably thinking 5 inches? where?

I'm not questioning the measurement. I'm just saying it's a hollow 5" with the compaction and quick melting. As meaningful as being the NFC South Champion. :p 

I have a terrace with furniture on it, so I get to do the suburban picnic table measurement stuff, too. 

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28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Probably 3” between this event and last event in Long Beach, but I had 9-10” between both in Huntington. Horrible winter for snow lovers on the south shore.

Welcome to the north shore bud. Snowy week for us. Up to 19.3" for the season. Happy you made the move?

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30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Probably 3” between this event and last event in Long Beach, but I had 9-10” between both in Huntington. Horrible winter for snow lovers on the south shore.

Haha can confirm!

 

6.6 inches total for the season with November’s event constituting a bare majority of it.

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NOHRSC interpolated 24hr sfall through 12z/4. Seasonal total in this part of Wantage now 34.7.  I thought the banding was well modeled by the NAM and in the resultant s+ area (colder profiles and larger dendrites easier to accum). Max today so far was 31.8 ~630A. now 28.9 with increasingly gusty can and partial sunshine.  We may not get past 32 here in northern Sussex County NJ today.  No matter, melting and settling in progress. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-04 at 9.53.50 AM.png

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I am to the south and had over 6...but am outside of the city areas to the west of the city did ok

 

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like I wound up with about 5.0"-6.0" of snowfall accumulation here. 

Sounds about right.  We got 6.0" in Metuchen, which is only a few miles S or SW of you guys.  The "miracle" last night was how we barely mixed at all with sleet, yet areas only 10 or so miles S did and areas well to our NE, like LI and the southern NYC boroughs did, extensively.  That line kept progressing towards us, mixed briefly a couple of times, but then would collapse back down south of the Raritan.  Somewhat simillar to Saturday morning, when the sleet line parked right along or just south of the Raritan and we got 4.5" while folks in NB/EB got 1-2" of mostly sleet.  Up to 24" for this winter.  

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like 4.8 at LGA vs 2.2 at JFK. Typical for the North Shore  to do better  when we have marginal temperatures like this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_okx?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Also very normal for March.  I've seen more storms like this in March than I have in any other month.  In early season (November) snowstorms, JFK does better than LGA because a NE wind keeps LGA milder.  We saw that in November 2012 especially.  But neither location did extremely well, the really big snowfall totals were off to our NE- Boston to Providence got the real deal and finally got their storm.  I cataloged the whole storm, we had 7 hours of snow and 6 hours of a mix or rain.  There was only a little bit of sleet.

4 pm to 6 pm rain/snow mix

6 pm to 11 pm snow

11 pm - 11:30 rain/snow mix

11:30 - 12 midnight back to all snow

12 midnight - 12:30 am back to a rain/snow mix

12:30 am - 1 am back to all snow

1 am - 4 am back to a rain/snow mix with some intermittent sleet for a brief time

4 am - 5 am back to all snow as the storm concluded

The temperature remained around 33 for the entire storm, dipping to 32 and for a few hours during the heavier bursts of snow.

 

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

SNE got crushed. Some areas have over 15 inches.

I expected that.  A mini version of March 2001 in terms of snowfall distribution lol.  Logan "only" had 10 inches but just to the west and to the south they had around 18".  SNE finally got their storm- they deserved it more than we did, we already got ours back in November when Logan somehow only recorded 0.2"

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Heard an inch or two in Long Beach. The shaft lives on down there. 

It's March lol cant expect much in these borderline airmasses.  It's always going to be like that unless a storm is timed well with Arctic air this late in the season.

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It was pretty clear on the models yesterday that the city south of the Bronx might have mixing issues and LI definitely would have mixing issues, not sure why it was ignored not only on here to an extent but also by the NWS, there was no way the South Shore of LI should've been under a winter storm warning. It really sounds like from Central Queens north there really wasn't much if any mixing, the issue seems to be more the warm ground and lack of rates, the precip never really got super heavy for a sustained period of time which is whats really needed in the city to get big accumulation in March  

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