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OBS thread 2P Mar 3-10A Mar 4 (snow, possible sleet s fringe)


wdrag
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wetbulb.thumb.png.e5522ed8cc7c8dc41be0fcd3f1aeb6f4.png

The wet-bulb zero line at the surface is still NW of the city by a good bit, but aircraft soundings out of LGA in the 17Z hour showed that it's only the lowest few hundred feet where that's the case. Everything above that is sufficiently cold for primarily snow as precip works into the area.

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Wantage NJ, just before go time.  37/19  at 250P,  down from a  high of 38.7.  Should be no problem to drop to freezing 2 hrs after SB. Will post 12z NAM 800-600mb banding signal 3z/6z/9z-4 in the Shellacking thread,  by 305P.  Then if someone can post radar images at those times, we'll see how the NAM  and this way of looking at FGEN, fared. The only big negative for 2/hr in the colder sector of the storm- it seems the primary lift is just below the scientifically defined IDEAL dendrite zone.  It's a model...imperfect. Just trying to use something that I think has value, as imperfect as it is. 

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Snow began Wantage 8s High Point around 350P.  I see a bit faster in the higher elevation to our northeast in Sussex County. We're off and running.  Just amazing if this comes to pass from 38.7F and partly sunny at 1230P to 8" by 4AM Monday.  Hard hitter. small flakes right now. 

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4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Light snow uws tho obviously too warm to expect accumulations at this point

Just walked home from the gym. Temp has dropped rapidly to meet dew points. I doubt we even start as rain, think we start accumulating as soon as the sun goes down. 

HRRR looks absolutely fantastic, .75 line way back inland, wouldn't be surprised to see some 10-12" lolls where bands set up. I like my 5-9" call for Harlem. 

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