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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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Hard to get excited if you are in the immediate NYC metro and points south and east - we have seen these borderline fiascos a couple times already this winter Jan 19-20 and a couple weeks ago....

shel·lac

Dictionary result for shellac

/SHəˈlak/  
verb
gerund or present participle: shellacking
  1. 1.
    varnish (something) with shellac.
  2. 2.
    informalNorth American
    defeat or beat (someone) decisively.
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4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Very nice look

4801DBAE-B78C-44A9-B459-4E30EDDA37E6.gif

It depends how it gets there though.  The coast could easily begin as rain on a track like that.  I can’t really see details yet on the UKMET maps 

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4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

UKMET has been most consistent so far with the Sunday Night event. Last 3 runs all look very similiar

I want to believe the UKIE is right, but it has shown one pretty benchmark storm after another this Winter. I don't know how it gets such a high verification score.

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1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

GEFS look like a classic benchmark track

1286C755-B273-447B-847A-AD37718E490D.jpeg

6Z was better, But this is very similiar to 0Z. still slightly NW, but hopefully this is the farthest NW is shows.  Keep in mind this is not tracing up the coast over the water. It goes SW to NE from the lower midwest so it would exit off the DE coast. Would prefer this to be just SE of the benchmark for NYC to be mostly snow

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1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

I want to believe the UKIE is right, but it has shown one pretty benchmark storm after another this Winter. I don't know how it gets such a high verification score.

Cuz it’s great maybe with predicting everything else but storm tracks lol? Like how many clouds will appear that day lol. I can’t figure it out either and I wonder the same thing, it’s been BM quite often this season only to cave as the event gets closer.

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1 hour ago, Metasequoia said:

I want to believe the UKIE is right, but it has shown one pretty benchmark storm after another this Winter. I don't know how it gets such a high verification score.

Yes, but on some earlier storms it was lonely in those BM tracks; this time, it's aligned reasonably well with the other models - in fact the model spread right now is smaller than I would expect - sure the outcomes are different, but that's only because the gradient is going to be a knife's edge one from rain to snow, which is not unusual in these parts.  

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8 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Gfs is all snow for the city

GFS is still iffy and has it raining on long island. ICON has it snowing in southern Jersey on north, not buying it at all. Nam, Euro, Para and CMC say otherwise.  

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS is still iffy and has it raining on long island. ICON has it snowing in southern Jersey on north, not buying it at all. Nam, Euro, Para and CMC say otherwise.  

Agree with you, though the UKIE I think is snow for the city as well

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I hope the entire board gets a nice snowstorm but taking into account how things have unfolded this winter and what a lot of guidance is suggesting I would still say NW of 95 stands the best chance for  significant snow. 

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie is similiar to gfs

Basically all the 0Z models now have a track benchmark offshore or just offshore - will Euro also trend southeast  ?

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

Basically all the 0Z models now have a track benchmark offshore or just offshore - will Euro also trend southeast  ?

Yes but very slowly.  It only slowly caught on to this current morning’s snow wave (it had nothing here 36 hours ago) and it’s slowly moving north on the system tomorrow night.  I don’t see NYC getting 6-8 inches as the Euro showed at 18Z

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