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Midweek event, Yah or Nah? February 27-28th Clipper

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As long as your expectations aren't for warning snows, I don't really see anything "wrong" with this system as modeled right now. It looks very typical for an open wave isentropic lift event. Prob 2-4" and maybe 4-6" in a weenie band if it maxes out over or region...but you wouldn't expect the higher amounts this far out. 

It could obviously weaken as we get closer...it could also strengthen as well. There's no real golden nugget that say it will do one or the other right now. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as your expectations aren't for warning snows, I don't really see anything "wrong" with this system as modeled right now. It looks very typical for an open wave isentropic lift event. Prob 2-4" and maybe 4-6" in a weenie band if it maxes out over or region...but you wouldn't expect the higher amounts this far out. 

It could obviously weaken as we get closer...it could also strengthen as well. There's no real golden nugget that say it will do one or the other right now. 

Right now, I feel comfortable with 1-3" north of the pike, and 2-4" south....3-6" in the Berkshires.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right now, I feel comfortable with 1-3" north of the pike, and 2-4" south....3-6" in the Berkshires.

Yeah nothing wrong with that. Always good to start conservative on an open wave. If it looks like we have good crosshair sig when we are close in with good fronto banding showing up, then you can always increase. But a forecast should never count on those at this stage. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah nothing wrong with that. Always good to start conservative on an open wave. If it looks like we have good crosshair sig when we are close in with good fronto banding showing up, then you can always increase. But a forecast should never count on those at this stage. 

Yea, forecasts reliant upon ratios of much greater than 10:1 should not be made until within at least 24-36 hours.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's been pretty spot on...missed one event a couple of weeks ago.

Dare I say Pickles has been....lucky...in his persistent state of pessimism this season?

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's been pretty spot on...missed one event a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t think so. I mean negativity has run rampant and made this place miserable . But he’s been more negative than Tblizz and that’s pretty damn hard to do 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think so. I mean negativity has run rampant and made this place miserable . But he’s been more negative than Tblizz and that’s pretty damn hard to do 

He has been pretty good with his calls though.  Optimism and weenieism is no more helpful.   It has been a miserable winter.

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Man, euro remains quite bullish. It has a good shortwave and it really hitting the fronto. For an open wave, it's pretty nice. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, euro remains quite bullish. It has a good shortwave and it really hitting the fronto. For an open wave, it's pretty nice. 

Pickles says toss 

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18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Dare I say Pickles has been....lucky...in his persistent state of pessimism this season?

I think there is a little more luck involved with seasonal snowfall, than pattern recognition...but yea, every good call has a little luck, and every bad call some bad luck.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Pickles says toss 

I mean...I get the pessimism. I just don't think persistence would be my reason. We've had plenty of systems that look like this which produce solid advisory snow. 

But it could crap out too. It's a northern stream system in fast flow so if it doesn't keep the integrity of the shortwave in a coherent manner, then yeah, maybe it's. 1-2 inch deal. 

But I'll throw out an example that this reminds me of...2/27/11...nice litttle event that actually went low warning in NE MA and SE NH with a weenie band and even some hangback snows. Not saying that's where the max will be...could be displaced a bit south this time but it overperofrmed was my point. This one could too....just like it could underperform. 

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1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

How’s it look for New York City thank you in advance

On the fringe and a tick less than 0z run, maybe 1"

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Congrats SNE crew, hopefully this pans out.

Thats a nice 24-hour QPF total on the EURO.

IMG_2340.thumb.PNG.9a493e0a474b74f113949062438dca70.PNG

Man...I'm right on the edge of the goods in the Berks...too bad I'm up in Leominster all week...maybe a solid 3-6" regionwide event, lollies in the berks to 6+?

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean...I get the pessimism. I just don't think persistence would be my reason. We've had plenty of systems that look like this which produce solid advisory snow. 

But it could crap out too. It's a northern stream system in fast flow so if it doesn't keep the integrity of the shortwave in a coherent manner, then yeah, maybe it's. 1-2 inch deal. 

But I'll throw out an example that this reminds me of...2/27/11...nice litttle event that actually went low warning in NE MA and SE NH with a weenie band and even some hangback snows. Not saying that's where the max will be...could be displaced a bit south this time but it overperofrmed was my point. This one could too....just like it could underperform. 

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised either that the GFS may have sniffed this out sooner. The progressive bias of that model allowed the lead shortwave to exit faster and allow more room for the next to amplify just enough. The Euro even 24-36 hours ago was hanging that back over ME and not giving any room for the second shortwave to move into SNE.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Given H7 RH, I wouldn’t be a QPF queen in the rt2 to SNH area. 

I'll get a H6 finger that drops 3.5" on 0.08" QPF with the way this winter is going.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'll get a H6 finger that drops 3.5" on 0.08" QPF with the way this winter is going.

Yep lol.

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