• Member Statistics

    15,537
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gino27
    Newest Member
    Gino27
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

Recommended Posts

Glad I’m in good company @usedtobe! I’d still lean toward the euro on total precip and the NAM more for temps and thermal profile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My thinking aligns with Hoffman’s in that for those outside these bands tossed north by a warm front, there are most certainly going to be winners and losers. @Amped made a great post yesterday talking about this. Precip driven by an adjoined warm front and WAR feature will have a less than perfectly uniform QPF distribution and in the case of our warm nose nudging north quickly at h7, there will be discrepancies in snow that could loom large (2” vs 6” in a 25-30 mile range).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxUSAF said:

Glad I’m in good company @usedtobe! I’d still lean toward the euro on total precip and the NAM more for temps and thermal profile.

NWS must be weighting the GFS/FV3 a LOT in its forecast... only way those bullish numbers make a lot of sense.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

NWS must be weighting the GFS/FV3 a LOT in its forecast... only way those bullish numbers make a lot of sense.  

Possible although you could sort of justify a widespread 4-6” swath using the euro with a little smidgen of gfs blend. They came down from yesterday when they had a lot of 6-8” which seems really unlikely IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

NWS must be weighting the GFS/FV3 a LOT in its forecast... only way those bullish numbers make a lot of sense.  

Last Model Diagnostic Discussion from WPC last night indicated the NAM is the furthest north with the expected QPF maxima compared to other guidance, but is within the general ensemble spread, so it was maintained. The overall pattern evolution is a weighted average of all models, so no disclaimers made given the trends of last nights runs. 

If anyone wants a link to the discussions, here's where to find them. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
NWS must be weighting the GFS/FV3 a LOT in its forecast... only way those bullish numbers make a lot of sense.  

 

Didn’t the 06z EURO justify a widespread 4-6” swath?

 

Anyways, it’s almost obs time given that I’m probably 16 hours from first flakes or so.

 

41/32 with high clouds. Sun not struggling to get through though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Last Model Diagnostic Discussion from WPC last night indicated the NAM is the furthest north with the expected QPF maxima compared to other guidance, but is within the general ensemble spread, so it was maintained. The overall pattern evolution is a weighted average of all models, so no disclaimers made given the trends of last nights runs. 

If anyone wants a link to the discussions, here's where to find them. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd 

When I was a lead forecaster in college, we were always taught to read the NCEP diagnostic disco first before looking at anything else...either obs or models.  You learn so much through that one product.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON is another beatdown across the area... kind of has the euro idea of two heavy bands but is even thumpier with both...  first band crushes DC and northern VA early morning...second band crushes MD late morning to mid-day.  Everyone wins.  

  • Like 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Possible although you could sort of justify a widespread 4-6” swath using the euro with a little smidgen of gfs blend. They came down from yesterday when they had a lot of 6-8” which seems really unlikely IMO.

That's probably what they and WPC went within during collaboration because it does fit their forecast. I refrained from making a final call on this storm because of any minor adjustments in the placement and strength of any synoptic features will cause significant shifts in the snow maxima and final distribution of sleet/freezing rain. I want to see all guidance before making any final calls today. Probably will not happen until the evening for me since I work and I'm going to be crazy busy today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON is another beatdown across the area... kind of has the euro idea of two heavy bands but is even thumpier with both...  first band crushes DC and northern VA early morning...second band crushes MD late morning to mid-day.  Everyone wins.  

Hoff, agreed. The consistency shown in the modeling by the ICON and FV3 bullseyeing NVA to the M/D has been worth watching. 

I personally liked having the GFS and RGEM south, and set my look on a compromise of the camps to bring a favorable solution to most of our sub. 

it would appear that models have some leverage to that double banded solution that the Euro has started to key in on. That’s what I’ll be watching for the rest of the 12z suite. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NWS must be weighting the GFS/FV3 a LOT in its forecast... only way those bullish numbers make a lot of sense.  

I know I'm biased since I work there, but one thing I like to look at is the trend in the WPC probabilistic guidance. What looked like a bar of 4" here in the urban corridor from yesterday's PWPF is now closer to 2-3". 4-6" here in central-northern AA feels like a pipe dream. If this were deal or no deal, I'd sign up for 4" right now, but instinctively I think 2-3" would be more realistic. In fact, I think there's a better chance of 1-2" of snow before sleet here than 3-4". Hope I'm wrong. 

Screenshot_20190219-103354_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190219-103245_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190219-103313_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty much everyone is rain between 21z WED and 00z THUR besides the mountains out west and to the NW on the 12z GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, the GFS seems better for places north and west. by 06z Thursday is 1.6 IMBY, previous GFS was 1.3. Flip looks about the same time IMBY (18z). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There must be a lot of sleet on the GFS around 1-4pm that the conditional maps aren’t picking up on because the clown maps are still crazy. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, high risk said:

         That's extremely apparent if one looks at the NAM QPF for southern MD.

yes- at least on the NAM - Euro kind of leaned that way previously, but came in better at 6z. GFS kind of agrees, but I suspected a bit south. And it is PA now that looks like the best thump - sleet and FZ for Nova and MD - except the Mts do well with the WAA thump. The 2-4 inch call for Nova and Southern MD - probably better bet.

 

image.thumb.png.9836654f88b52c0315a768e3bac10569.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Glad I’m in good company @usedtobe! I’d still lean toward the euro on total precip and the NAM more for temps and thermal profile.

Thanks but I like the CWG forecast of 2 to 5 for the city and 3 to 7 or 4 to 7 father out towards the northwest.  I don't trust the GFS amounts so lik eyou I'd lean towards the Euro amounts and the NAM timing of the changeover.  The bottom axis of really heavy precip will determine our fate. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Agree that’s spot on.  Taking off for this one regardless of OPM.  Someone has to watch the thermometer at my house and do obs. 

Making sure you see snow for the first time this year, eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the sounding at Hour 30 for the DC metro region - it painted this as snow on the 6z run and as mix on the current run, by this point approximatel 0.4" QPF has falling, prior runs had 0.5-0.75" QPF. It's a relatively minor difference and probably rate dependent. I think with a sounding like this it would be snow in heavy precip or snow/sleet mix in lighter precip.

I personally don't see this GFS run as some huge step back, just another variation of the same with probably ~0.3-0.4" of QPF falling before we lose the column in the DC metro region - supports 2-4" of snow before we flip with some boom potential if big rates come in with the initial bands.

 

688104804_gfs_2019021912_fh30_sounding_77.42W76.68W38.83N39_18N.thumb.png.e3534e6952b54ef7367f06f5b5615002.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mappy said:

So, the GFS seems better for places north and west. by 06z Thursday is 1.6 IMBY, previous GFS was 1.3. Flip looks about the same time IMBY (18z). 

My best guess for us is 3-4. Then sleet for a couple hours. Then a pretty good glazing. Would not be surprised if we flip to sleet a little soon than expected as the warm nose tends to race north in these type of events. If it holds off for a bit due to better banding then we could do well. I dont think we get above freezing until very late tomorrow evening perhaps midnight. I think our max potential is 5-6 if we can snow a little past 18z with some decent banding. I'm going with the euro. It been rock solid so far. Hopefully it holds at 12z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

Here's the sounding at Hour 30 for the DC metro region - it painted this as snow on the 6z run and as mix on the current run, by this point approximatel 0.4" QPF has falling, prior runs had 0.5-0.75" QPF. It's a relatively minor difference and probably rate dependent. I think with a sounding like this it would be snow in heavy precip or snow/sleet mix in lighter precip.

I personally don't see this GFS run as some huge step back, just another variation of the same with probably ~0.3-0.4" of QPF falling before we lose the column in the DC metro region - supports 2-4" of snow before we flip with some boom potential if big rates come in with the initial bands.

 

688104804_gfs_2019021912_fh30_sounding_77.42W76.68W38.83N39_18N.thumb.png.e3534e6952b54ef7367f06f5b5615002.png

Ah, good post.  I was comparing the pretty colors on TT before I dug into it.  I mean, it's the GFS and CAD, so I'm not too alarmed unless the mesos follow suit, which I doubt at this point.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 has light snow starting at 03z in RIC. Still snowing at 06z and the snow reaches DC at 06z. Ice starts in RIC at around 12z and the heavy snow reaches DC at 12z. Sleet begins in RIC at 15z, heavy snow in DC at 15z before the flip.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, which is probably next to nothing, the 12z CMC looks better if we are to believe the snow maps lol

gem_asnow_neus_fh36_trend.thumb.gif.95675c1c6a619bc33aaaedd09f72a07f.gif

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.