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stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

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16 minutes ago, mappy said:

depends on your location -- 95 and east stayed below 4", then it went 4-6+" up to the PA line. 

I had 7” here. There were some 8” totals along the PA line just to my west.  I missed the storm though stuck in Baltimore trying to get home in god awful traffic and road conditions. 30 was a mess!

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

6z Euro looks more thumpy into the metros than 0z.  Still sending the best stuff into northern MD and southern PA but an uptick of the initial thump for what its worth.

11C2EADC-6876-4AFF-8218-37B071987CDB.thumb.png.6c232c5144fdc409d16279d566fdbe08.png

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Euro doesn’t have one consolidated band. It sends waves. An unitial band comes across VA to DC. Then another across MD and into PA. There is “some” minimum between the two that you can see there but the two thumps overlap enough that no one gets screwed too bad. As a result there is no 8-10” area but a very big area of 4-6”. Not a bad idea. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

11C2EADC-6876-4AFF-8218-37B071987CDB.thumb.png.6c232c5144fdc409d16279d566fdbe08.png

Checking temps, we (DC) are at 0C at 700 by 15z so its really only a few hours of snow before we flip to sleet (I think I read yesterday we want -2c 700 temps for snow).  NE MD holds on until 18z at 700.

 

EDIT: We don't lose the surface until 21z in and near the city.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Checking temps, we (DC) are at 0C at 700 by 15z so its really only a few hours of snow before we flip to sleet (I think I read yesterday we want -2c 700 temps for snow).  NE MD holds on until 18z at 700.

As others have stated, and i have noticed with these setups, the warm push above the surface comes faster than modeled and the cold at the surface moves out slower than modeled, so I believe it. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

As others have stated, and i have noticed with these setups, the warm push above the surface comes faster than modeled and the cold at the surface moves out slower than modeled, so I believe it. 

All of the snow in DC and northern VA comes with that initial wave between 5am and 11am.   On the euro at least. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

All of the snow in DC and northern VA comes with that initial wave between 5am and 11am.   On the euro at least. 

It's nice to see the euro on board with it finally with what other guidance had been showing (To a degree).  I agree with DC, we will go to sleet faster than any model shows so we will need to maximize what window we have.

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Would be great to get some cloud cover in here before solar maximum...even if it's a veil of cirrus.  

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Saw mention of the freezing rain accumulation with temps near freezing .......... no, it won't accumulate on roads, or even hard surfaces many times, but as we saw out here last week out here, it can accumulate easily on trees and power lines.  We had temps right around the 30-32 degree mark (KOKV reported 32 the whole time) and ice was able to accumulate to 1/3 - 1/2" on trees and power lines.  Many trees down and thousands without power for over 24 hours.  So hopefully when we transition it's to sleet then to rain.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Saw mention of the freezing rain accumulation with temps near freezing .......... no, it won't accumulate on roads, or even hard surfaces many times, but as we saw out here last week out here, it can accumulate easily on trees and power lines.  We had temps right around the 30-32 degree mark (KOKV reported 32 the whole time) and ice was able to accumulate to 1/3 - 1/2" on trees and power lines.  Many trees down and thousands without power for over 24 hours.  So hopefully when we transition it's to sleet then to rain.

Just drove out that way this weekend.  Headed west to Petersburg WV from Winchester.  The tree damage was pretty serious in the elevated valleys....There were areas where almost every tree was topped off.  I'm sure it looked like a war zone out there...

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12Z NAM.....DC is over to sleet by 15Z. .3-.4 has fallen by that time, so sticks with the thinking of 1-3/2-4 snow before the flip.

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12z NAM looks to be coming in hot. Dry Slot at 08z in RIC. I'm sure it's a model hiccup.

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Rain  switch over seems to be happening around 4pm *in Richmond*. Ice looks to be a threat more so than before. I think the models are picking up on the CAD

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^^ talking about Richmond.

Folks, if you are going to be doing model play by play, please please please be specific on what area you are talking about when you do so.

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2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Rain switch over seems to be happening around 4pm. Ice looks to be a threat more so than before. I think the models are picking up on the CAD

in RIC?  so you are frozen until that point?  interesting I wouldn't have thought that.  location dependent there too for sure. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

^^ talking about Richmond.

Folks, if you are going to be doing model play by play, please please please be specific on what area you are talking about when you do so.

This.  Especially if you're on mobile, it's hard to understand where a poster is talking about.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

^^ talking about Richmond.

Folks, if you are going to be doing model play by play, please please please be specific on what area you are talking about when you do so.

 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This.  Especially if you're on mobile, it's hard to understand where a poster is talking about.

Apologies.

 

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

in RIC?  so you are frozen until that point?  interesting I wouldn't have thought that.  location dependent there too for sure. 

This was per the 12zNAM, subject to change.

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18 minutes ago, snowfan said:

12Z NAM.....DC is over to sleet by 15Z. .3-.4 has fallen by that time, so sticks with the thinking of 1-3/2-4 snow before the flip.

not sure what site you are using -- COD has .22 for DC at 15z

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Initial band at 12z looks fun on 3k.

Need to be more specific please. Fun for who? DC? Northern MD? 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

not sure what site you are using -- COD has .22 for DC at 15z

pivotal says .23-.28 of moisture in the 6hours preceding 15z

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3k NAM has a pretty decent band move through quickly from NOVA to about Baltimore from 5-7 am but then it just falls apart and the run is generally disappointing. Just a couple of inches for most before the flip.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Close call for OPM.  2-4” is usually not shutdown worthy but the timing is dicey.  

The word "ice" is there in the forecast.  That'll cause them to shut down.  Plus the winter storm warnings are already out.

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Close call for OPM.  2-4” is usually not shutdown worthy but the timing is dicey.  

it's not close at all

Snow starts before dawn

the storm lasts all day

LWX has ridiculous snow numbers

they're going to close unless the storm changes completely according to guidance today

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the key is how long we can hold off on the sleet.  given the less than ideal setup, i agree with others that are thinking 1-2/2-4 for dc and tbh i wouldn't be suprised if we ping for a few hours after if the cad is strong enough.  the 540 line is all the way up into canada before the precip even gets here.  i know that's not the end all, but i don't recall any setups where that's a good thing.

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Close call for OPM.  2-4” is usually not shutdown worthy but the timing is dicey.  

Dont they usually use the LWX warnings? Which they already put a warning out with more snow than that. Guess they could change it today though. 

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4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

pivotal says .23-.28 of moisture in the 6hours preceding 15z

thanks, the .2-.3 range sounds pretty good for DC before the flip. 

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Outside of yesterday’s 12z run, the 3k NAM has been pretty consistent with the front end snow. 2-4”/3-5” depending on latitude and elevation. 

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