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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


stormtracker
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40 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

NAM3 sfc temps at 00Z Thurs. Certainly not ideal for appreciable ice accretion, especially with higher rates (which more runoff). But, light fzra or fzdz at 32°F is certainly more efficient, especially on elevated surfaces, as we saw with the recent event in/near Mt. Airy. 

nam3km_T2m_neus_60.png

You just have to love CAD and our mountains! Look at the spread between Blacksburg (27) and Bristol (57) on that map. If the models are off just a bit and we hang on to the CAD several hours longer I can see a potential for .25/.5 of freezing rain in western VA areas.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I actually feel better being in the middle of the GFS and NAM band.  It's like the ICON if you average it out.  I just kinda wonder why the GFS likes just south of the area while others don't.

I'll be honest, I haven't looked at models yet, but maybe the GFS has a slightly stronger H to the north of us (wall)?

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Keep in mind Global solutions like the GFS, CMC, and Euro won’t clue into the short range with a setup like this. CAD may be underdone and eroded too quickly. 

Is the main issue the extent of the CAD or the trajectory of the storm and placement of the heaviest banding?  I suppose it’s both.  

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I thought they were essentially abandoned years ago. I think the NAM has a planned sunset as well? @dtk?

   There won't be any further upgrades to the NAM, although it's not clear when it can be turned off.    As long as the GFS struggles in cold air damming events and with instability in general, the NAMs will stay.     The NAM3 sometimes runs a bit cold in damming events and can be too wet, but it's far superior to the GFS in overall handling of this type of event.     We saw that very clearly with the November storm.

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35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All setups. 3k NAM certainly has value as does the Canadian mesos IMO.

The rgem looked good at 48 imo. It seemed in the “south” camp with the initial fronto banding. 

15 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

The GFS has functionally shown the same thing for the past five runs. Pretty impressive consistency on putting the heaviest band just south of DC. Could be consistently wrong. 

 

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I actually feel better being in the middle of the GFS and NAM band.  It's like the ICON if you average it out.  I just kinda wonder why the GFS likes just south of the area while others don't.

This!!!!  Being in between two major model camps (gfs/rgem v euro NAM) isn’t a bad place to be as usually some kind of compromise ends up reality. 

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

   There won't be any further upgrades to the NAM, although it's not clear when it can be turned off.    As long as the GFS struggles in cold air damming events and with instability in general, the NAMs will stay.     The NAM3 sometimes runs a bit cold in damming events and can be too wet, but it's far superior to the GFS in overall handling of this type of event.     We saw that very clearly with the November storm.

Thanks. Do you or @dtk know of any future plans to improve the short range high resolution guidance?  The sref was a great idea (a short range high res ensemble could be useful) but the members just suck and have extreme biases. 

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This event is a lock at this point IMO. General 3-6 for just about everyone followed by some sleet/ice. Obviously still details on who jacks with the snow. But we are all gonna get hit.

I tend to agree with you.  We have a well timed cold High.  Their is abundant gulf tapped moisture barreling toward us.  The question is who gets 10+ inches and who gets 2-4. And that just can’t be worked out until gametime 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. Do you or @dtk know of any future plans to improve the short range high resolution guidance?  The sref was a great idea (a short range high res ensemble could be useful) but the members just suck and have extreme biases. 

   I certainly won't defend the SREF, but it's not a hi-res ensemble (members are 16 km).    The HREF is an excellent way to view existing hi-res guidance in terms of means and probabilities, although more winter products are needed.     Moving towards an hourly-updated hi-res ensemble around 2021 or so.

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By 18Z Wed, FV3 has heavy sleet.....maybe heavily rimed snow.....in the metro area. Heavy snow from BWI north and northeast. By 0Z, the steady precip is moving out as most of us lose the column. FV3 has a 3-5" snowfall for DC and the immediate area with much more along the 70 corridor and further E/NE from Baltimore/BWI. 

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34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I actually feel better being in the middle of the GFS and NAM band.  It's like the ICON if you average it out.  I just kinda wonder why the GFS likes just south of the area while others don't.

the run to run consistency with the GFS placement of the band is staggering. It is probably picking up on baroclinic instability between the CAD and the SE ridge.  This tells me that someone will get deathbanded.. just not sure where at this lead. 

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2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

the run to run consistency with the GFS placement of the band is staggering. It is probably picking up on baroclinic instability between the CAD and the SE ridge.  This tells me that someone will get deathbanded.. just not sure where at this lead. 

Gfs did shift north “some”. Euro ticked south “some at 6z. Perhaps were seeing convergence on that compromise. 

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