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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Yeah the EURO and GFS Legacy are showing a tropical wave interacting with disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean taking a track similar to Dolly '08 or Harvey and becoming a Western Gulf hurricane in the next 7-10 days.

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Advisories to be issued on Tropical Storm Chantal at 11pm. 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds.  As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC).  This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

Forecaster Brown
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TS Chantal is aliiive...  fairly odd to have formation so far north [40N], but she's supposed to bend south into warmer SST, but more unfavorable atmo layers, at least for a while, then...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite
images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has
been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined
surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds
south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become
Tropical Storm Chantal.

The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in
excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the
northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow
down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast
to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly
stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to
the consensus models HCCA and TVCN.

Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to
westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After
48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over
warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is
expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less
than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance.
Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected
throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a
tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that
the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the
deep convection sooner than currently expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 40.2N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 40.3N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 40.2N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 39.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 37.4N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 34.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 34.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 36.0N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

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9 hours ago, STxVortex said:

TS Chantal is aliiive...  fairly odd to have formation so far north [40N], but she's supposed to bend south into warmer SST, but more unfavorable atmo layers, at least for a while, then...

Leslie 2: Mid-Atlantic Boogaloo

 

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Another storm that would have been lost pre satellite and further not named even a decade or two ago. I’m all for better and more accurate  science but when comparing seasons historically I believe storms such as Chantel should be left out.

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Westerly windshear has dramatically decreased across the Caribbean and much of the MDR below 20-25° latitude. Additionally there are signs of backing Azores ridging, which should continue to relax easterlies somewhat over the next week. Robust waves and inverted troughs are exiting Africa during this time. Though the globals are reluctant to latch onto anything yet aside from occasional blurps out of the GFS, I expect a shift towards favorable atmospheric conditions and a decrease in subsidence going into early September. Some of these waves should be strong enough to break off the suppressed ITCZ and amp up moisture feed, convergence and lift across the lower central development region. Essentially, aside from obvious climatological cues, I don't expect things to be quiet much longer.

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Posting my first outlook with numbers. Wish I had more time to dive deeper and add more images, but oh well. We’ll see how it goes.

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Peak Outlook

One of my favorite stories comes from Phil Klotzbach, but has been shared by others. Every year on August 20, the late and legendary Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell to herald the arrival of the ramp up of hurricane season. One of the things that is important to understand is that although the season starts on June 1, the overwhelming majority of activity occurs between August 20 and October 20th. The last two years, I've predicted significant activity during the peak of the season, but I underestimated its intensity. This year, I want to try something different and put numbers on my prediction. 

The outlook below encompasses the next 60 days, the period between August 22 and October 20. Feel free to troll if this is a disaster :lol: 

j68lZbN.gif

 

WxWatcher007 Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 8
Number of Hurricanes: 4
Number of Major Hurricanes: 2

 

I have been bullish on an active peak, but unlike the prior two years, the signals for an active and quieter peak counterbalance each other well. Rather than give a range, I figured I would go specific, but I would consider this a success if I am +/- 1 in a given category. 

Overall Current Environment
Earlier in the season, I said that things were hostile but were simmering in the basin. I still believe that to be true, although I did not anticipate the lack of instability in the MDR (independent of SAL) being such an overwhelming factor in the inability of increasingly vigorous waves to develop. Sometimes things can simmer without boiling over, and that's where we've been. 

Even in the face of some well timed CCKWs, the MJO has been weak and we've seen too much sinking air in the MDR. That has effectively kept a lid on everything. 

Despite some well placed outbreaks, SAL hasn't been historically bad. SSTs have been warm across most of the basin, but in the critical region for CV development, the eastern MDR, SSTs have actually been below normal, further compounding the hostile environment waves have faced. Shear has been hit or miss, but far lower on average than what we would have seen if we remained in a Nino regime. Interestingly, we've seen cooling in other parts of the Atlantic recently while a warming in the MDR. 

vRFvZNb.gif

Overall, the environment has been more favorable in the western Atlantic and we have seen that through the development of our three named storms. Andrea formed off the SE coast. Barry in the Gulf, and Chantal off the east coast and north of 40N, which is uncommon. 

Where we're headed
Consistent with the approaching climatological peak of the season, things are starting to change in the basin. 

SST/TCHP
The expansive nature of warm SSTs should allow for the homebrew region to be open for potential activity through early to mid October. With regard to TCHP, although the best values are limited in terms of geographic scope, there are three areas that need to be highlighted. First, there is a very significant warm eddy in the Gulf that lies near a typical northward moving track of late season Caribbean systems. This is to the NW of a rather large area of extreme TCHP off the coasts of SW Florida and Cuba. Second, the entire Western Caribbean--that speaks for itself. Finally, the area off the East Coast looks rather significant. The gif below shows June-July-August changes in TCHP. Looking at the last ten days however (not pictured here), TCHP has continued to increase in the homebrew region. 

giphy.gif

Wind Shear
A while back, I posted an image of they typical VWS anomaly in ASO during various ENSO states. Here is what things tend to look like in a warm neutral regime

jeRDPKg.jpg

 

Here's the 5 day averaged projected wind shear from the long range GEFS for early September

VMpIsdn.png

 

And here's the absolute value

gfs-ens_ashear_atl_65.png

That's a robust signal for activity as far as wind shear is concerned. One important caveat is the location and strength of PV streamers, which impart shear on tropical waves and systems and can serve as a significant inhibiting factor for development. I expect that the atmosphere continues to resemble a warm neutral regime as we head into September and October, which means that shear is unlikely to be a significant roadblock for development in general. 

Moisture/SAL/Instability
Although this season has made it clear that SAL and instability should be considered independent factors, I am tying everything together here. As I mentioned earlier, the SAL has been below historical standards, but it does seem to have been well placed. This has had a couple of different impacts. First, it has, through the SAL, helped to place a cap on much of the MDR. I believe it has an impact on relative humidity levels in the basin as well. With sinking air coming from the suppressive phases of the MJO and CCKW, this has helped reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic greatly. This has not had the same effect in other parts of the Atlantic Basin, further bolstering my argument that the homebrew region is most likely to be active.

Atmospheric Conditions
Finally, an important consideration in a basin that has counterbalancing factors is the role of items like the MJO and CCKWs as they enhance rising motion and convection in both the basin and across Africa. I'll readily admit that I still have quite a bit to learn in this space, but it looks like over the next month at least we will likely see at least one period where atmospheric conditions are more favorable. We're currently in it. A CCKW has traversed the Atlantic. Although we haven't seen any development from waves, what is perhaps more important is that the CCKW is expected to increase the potency of African waves, through the enhancement of an already potent African Monsoon. I think we've seen some pretty strong waves this season, and as we reach the peak, those waves are getting stronger and will be enhanced in both quality and quantity by atmospheric conditions. 

The key factor here, I think, is that the lead waves are likely to reduce SAL in conjunction with the climatological reduction of SAL outbreaks and extent. That should create more favorable MDR conditions toward the middle and end of September, provided we don't quickly revert back to sinking motion in the MDR. 


I wish I could say a lot more, but I've been time limited recently. Here's a quick summary of the next few weeks:

  • I think that the last third of August (21-31) is relatively quiet, with 1-2 named storms. I expect one in the homebrew region (defined as Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Western Atlantic), and another in the MDR.
     
  • Early September (1-10) is also likely to be on the quieter side, with increasing activity toward the end of the period as we see a drop in SAL consistent with climatology, drop in wind shear consistent with an accelerating warm neutral ENSO atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic, and increase in SST/TCHP consistent with climatology and the overall upper air pattern. This period may feature our first major hurricane of the season.  
     
  • I do not like looking at the upper level pattern and projecting, but I think this peak brings and active period for the US for reasons outlined much better by HM and others. I see three landfalls during this period: one tropical storm landfall, one hurricane landfall, and one major landfall. I think the areas most likely to be impacted are the areas climatologically favored--I do not see a higher than normal risk north of Virginia Beach, but it is incredibly important to remember that landfall locations are very hard if not impossible to predict with much accuracy at long range. 

Thanks for reading. I wish I had more time to dive deeper. Let me know what you think. 

 

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

1. Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is
located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern
coast of the Florida peninsula.  This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily
northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic Ocean.  The low is forecast to move near or over
the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit
development during that time.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back
over the Atlantic waters on Saturday.  A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves
from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the
southeastern United States coast.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and
southern and central Florida through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands.  Additional slow development
of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves
generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

two_atl_5d0 (1).png

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Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles is looking very suspicious that it is trying to cutoff the wave axis in the low levels. It clearly has cyclonic turning in mid levels evident on visible. Convection keeps pivoting west and wsw of the axis however. If mid level flow can relax just a bit more and the disturbance can sustain or, even better, an MCS develop at the low level cutoff, we may have a a classified storm in the MDR. Perhaps the NHC did not have a great look at the feature this morning. ASCAT missed. But I figure the odds will increase to moderate on the 2PM AST 5-day outlook besides.8023b3112437ee4ad1e8880565e6769d.gif

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles is looking very suspicious like it is trying to cutoff the wave axis in the low levels. It clearly has cyclonic turning in mid levels evident on visible. Convection keeps pivoting west and wsw of the axis however. If the disturbance can sustain or even better an MCS develop at the low level cutoff, we may have a a classified storm in the MDR. Perhaps the NHC did not have a great look at the feature this morning. ASCAT missed. But I figure the odds will increase to moderate on the 2PM AST 5-day outlook besides.8023b3112437ee4ad1e8880565e6769d.gif

From Eric Webb

S9I9LRe.png

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From Eric Webb

S9I9LRe.png&key=a59fa9ecdc5c0c02d85e7826587be9520438aac1e709ce823881a50638773552

Yeah I was referring to ASCAT this morning. Still, even with respect to that most recent successful pass, the overall circulation still looks rather weak. Obviously directional winds on the N-NW side are going to be stronger due to the folding of the axis and easterlies. If convection can ramp up again this evening, we may have an interesting development. Still expect odds to go up at 2 PM.
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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
From Eric Webb
S9I9LRe.png&key=a59fa9ecdc5c0c02d85e7826587be9520438aac1e709ce823881a50638773552

Yeah I was referring to ASCAT this morning. Still, even with respect to that most recent successful pass, the overall circulation still looks rather weak. Obviously directional winds on the N-NW side are going to be stronger due to the folding of the axis. If convection can ramp up again this evening, we may have an interesting development. Still expect odds to go up at 2 PM.

Yeah, it’s not quite there but you can tell it’s trying. The environment doesn’t look all that hostile for now. I think the track will be key to whether this survives long term.

It’ll be interesting to see what the 2pm odds are. I agree that they go up, probably significantly.

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Yeah, it’s not quite there but you can tell it’s trying. The environment doesn’t look all that hostile for now. I think the track will be key to whether this survives long term.

It’ll be interesting to see what the 2pm odds are. I agree that they go up, probably significantly.

If this does become a TS, score one for the GFS op. The Euro op missed on this pretty hard. Sure, it continuously resolves the disturbance but hasn't even flirted with sub 1000 mb yet. The GFS has been on the feature for days and has had a number of runs at moderate TS strength.

 

If this does develop, it will probably impact the islands. Late term there will be an upper pv that should pull whatever remains into the Bahamas and near Fl / SE coast.

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Up to 70% probs. Per evening visible and shortwave, the cyclonic turning looks even more pronounced than earlier today. No doubt that the axis has indeed closed. However, that does not mean we have a confined low level vort. Mid level circulation, certainly, and even a broad low level cutoff, albeit weak. But the invest needs some robust convection. Like I said in an earlier thread, a good period of convection/MCS right over the cutoff, this thing increases vorticity and should be a go for cyclogenesis and classification.

 

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Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. :D Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

 

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Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:

 

 

This looks fantastic, Josh! Congratulations and keep an eye on Dorian. Things are looking a little more concerning for the SE CONUS tonight!

 

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18 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. :D Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

 

That’s bananas awesome!!! Super looking forward to it!! 

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Looks like we have two more waves coming off Africa that the Euro really likes developing over the past few runs...

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23 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like we have two more waves coming off Africa that the Euro really likes developing over the past few runs...

Most of the hurricane seasons I tracked as a kid or teen wouldn't have activity until late September and October. Hurricane Keith October 2000, Hurricane Iris October 2001, Hurricane Lili October 2003, ect ect. If the climate models are correct, we could have some activity during this time.

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Won't be around for long, but TS Fernand has formed in the W GOM... will move west and make landfall in NE MX and dissipate in about 72 hours

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and
from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West.  Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.  A motion toward the west-northwest is
forecast tonight and Wednesday.  This motion could bring the center
of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves
inland.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on
the intensity.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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The one coming off Cape Verde now looks almost certain to be a threat to shipping lanes only.  The orange coming out behind it also looks like it might recurve.

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