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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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50 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

They should just name it for media purposes.  It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda.   

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Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning.  The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized.  If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system.  This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

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Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

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Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Sargent to Port Bolivar.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early
Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night
and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move
farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves
onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches
across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest
Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol...

Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread?

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol...

Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread?

And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT.

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Just now, hlcater said:

And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT.

And landfall too?

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol...

Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread?

Done

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Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something! 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something! 

Yeah, really active. More than usual in the peak though.

 

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By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

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5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

According to the last few Euro runs, it has Karen forming off the coast of Africa and getting huge in the mid-Atlantic and Lorenzo forming in the southeast Caribbean, both within the next week or so.

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23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead.  There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting.  Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin. :guitar:

 

7WwVkkNbNaUCa.jpg

534T84cElAuRp.jpg

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45 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

 

8 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead.  There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting.  Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin. :guitar:

 

7WwVkkNbNaUCa.jpg

534T84cElAuRp.jpg

Yeah, I think the wave train is going to roll for the foreseeable future. Not worried about SAL as I think the rising motion we get from the CCKW passage will overcome it.

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99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.

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31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

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As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  

two_atl_5d0.png

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If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it.

As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  
two_atl_5d0.png&key=855eed0b5c51b1c250be282d1feefb408fbb6e6c5ef5fe77c5ba85d32d9081b2


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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11 hours ago, RU848789 said:

As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  

two_atl_5d0.png

Here's the update on that map (with the downgrade of Jerry) -

EE-nMyrU4AAZG9G.png

Looks like they plan to look at that latest system (Windward Islands one) later today (with another recon planned for tomorrow) - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Quote
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0220 PM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-115 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE JERRY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 22/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0910A JERRY
       C. 22/1000Z
       D. 23.6N 68.0W
       E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
       A. 21/1800Z                   A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0112A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1430Z                   C. 22/0915Z
       D. 10.0N 56.0W                D. 11.5N 60.0W
       E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 

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The models are showing all the interests  in the Atlantic following each other staying way ots in the Atlantic. 

The coast might be safe for now but we still have to watch homegrown storms  especially in October 

 

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Likewise NCEP forecasts a strong heat ridge over the eastern CONUS the remainder of the month into Oct. Don't just assume modeling will follow suite with every MDR to Caribbean system from here on out. It only takes one getting missed by a weakness and slipping under an ECONUS ridge at the right time to end up as far west as the Gulf. Ridge and trough interactions are dynamic, not held within stasis.

 

Even looking at current global modeling, a case in point. Look at the location of fantasy hurricane moving under the ridge into an amped CONUS pattern. That would spell trouble:388d4ed927ade4105cec4bb25692ad16.jpg

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The 12z Euro has an interesting development of current 99L.  It has it going north through the eastern Caribbean and then turning to the southwest before meandering a little.  This could be an interesting one to watch.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh120-240.gif

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33 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS has a solution a bit like the 12Z Euro.  System comes north and then gets stuck before being pushed back west or southwest

12z geps also show that solution

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