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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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40 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

The one coming off Cape Verde now looks almost certain to be a threat to shipping lanes only.  The orange coming out behind it also looks like it might recurve.

Not according to the 12z GFS in fantasy land :lol:

 

We'll see every solution in the coming week. 

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^Boston getting wrecked in 2.5 weeks

But the tropics have really come alive!  From right to left we have Tropical Depression 8, Invest 91L, Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Fernand, and Hurricane Juliette:

Untitled.jpg

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1 hour ago, Sportybx said:

The whole east coast gets wrecked in 2 weeks . From South Carolina all the way up to nyc and Boston ....... 

Imagine the excitement in here if that ever happened....servers cooked for sure!  

 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Imagine the excitement in here if that ever happened....servers cooked for sure!  

 

No power left to melt.

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7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

No power left to melt.

Lol...I meant the lead up..you know 2-3 days before it hits up here.  500 people on at once like when a blizzard is heading for SNE...

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34 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The worst possible track a hurricane can take?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh366-384.gif

Why would this be the worst possible track and not one slamming into the Jersey sure say ? 

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18 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why would this be the worst possible track and not one slamming into the Jersey sure say ? 

Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.   

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Midnight GFS has Humberto pulling a Dorian in the Bahamas (slthough, less intense storm and briefer stall). Considering the utter hell they just went through, I would take one for the team with a hit to prevent that 

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4 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The worst possible track a hurricane can take?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh366-384.gif

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

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6 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

Absolutely.    Everybody is on the "Catastrophic Train" of late....lol.   It's real easy to get caught up in the Hype(like lots here do) when that's all you see on the news/weather channel etc etc...   And terms like Devastating and Catastrophic become common phrases for things many times that aren't even close to that type of magnitude.   What happened in the Bahamas was Catastrophic and what happened in Florence last year was too; and Maria in P.R.; Harvey, Katrina, Andrew, Hugo etc etc....those do deserve the extreme terms put on them.  

 

And like you said, the chances of any tropical storm/hurricane hitting north of NC is rare...it happens from time to time as we all know, but it's a rare occurrence, and has a 99% chance of not happening as the Goofus just depicted.  But as Weather enthusiasts, it's interesting to entertain the possibilities nonetheless.   

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It's not even worth discussing but a track up the coast like that has been seen many times including most recently Irene. Biggest threat with those storms is inland river flooding. You really need a track like the 12z GFS showed yesterday to get meaningful storm surge into the NYC area and New England.

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8 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

Is it possible for a track pattern to, more or less, lock in with tropical systems? As always .....

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12 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.   

Nope.  A storm slamming perpendicular into the east coast at any one major city location would be the worst possible track (i.e.straight into the Ches. bay, SNJ/Del Bay, LI, etc.)

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46 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling.

And the Euro hasn't been showing it for a few runs now. Looking less and less likely with each run. 

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9 hours ago, wxmx said:

"Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting.

LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention.

Hopefully you don't have any damage.

How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about

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11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention.

Hopefully you don't have any damage.

How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about

24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation.

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Its back on the GFS

NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.

94L_tracks_latest.png

94L_intensity_latest.png

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.

If it can stick together and make its way into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, it could have the potential to really ramp up.  I don't think Dorian caused any upwelling in those areas so the water should be prime for intensification.  

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