• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Recommended Posts

A boundary is forecast to stall and linger over the north GOM next week. An MCS currently organizing over Kansas may push SSE with the boundary and move off the Panhandle coastline possibly developing a sharp surface trough / area of low pressure, which some of the globals are trying to close off into a tropical or sub tropical cyclone. At least something to watch for development towards the mid-to-late week timeframe.535df0bb46fb3cf103a32907f2417f70.jpg&key=2a27502538c97c63306533ed3dd9e8824061ba6989edb6fc4a723768fb3a521d


Obviously keeping a close eye on this. So many variables but a possibility. At work still, has there been any consistency with today’s model runs?


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Obviously keeping a close eye on this. So many variables but a possibility. At work still, has there been any consistency with today’s model runs?

 

IMO, there’s been enough of a signal on both the operational and ensemble guidance to take note and watch casually, but not enough to declare this a bona fide threat—if that makes sense. I think we need a few more days to get a better sense of:

1) where/how that boundary sets up along the Gulf (for development)

2) what happens with that western Atlantic ridge (for track)

There’s still a lot to be resolved and not enough consistency for me yet.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though we are still beyond 72 hrs from a trackable feature, if one does indeed resolve, there are already two different camps between the GFS vs ECMWF runs over the past few days. Though both models do have a sharp surface trough / low pressure system over the SE US & NE GOM, the ECMWF is more aggressive in southern advancement of that boundary and an attached 850-700 mb vortex. Cyclogenesis on the Euro is much further south out over the GOM, versus the GFS runs which keeps the feature either inland or in closer proximity to land.

Granted we are still early into in these model runs and confidence should remain low for now. If given a scenario of better modeling agreement on the eventual placement of the surface trough, even with a disturbance positioned out over the GOM doesn't guarantee TC development. That being said, last night's 0z ECMWF was the most aggressive in development so far:b6491dc444786c1721d175a67410861a.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20% odds introduced by the NHC.

KxqvJKs.jpg

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Odds are up and there is still quite a split on the ensemble and operational guidance with regard to track and intensity. There seem to be two camps, with one (led by the Euro operational) developing something in the Gulf and bringing it toward LA/MS/AL and another (led by the GFS) developing something either in the Gulf or off/along the southeast and tracking it northeast. 

Still convoluted overall. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to 60% now. New GFS reverses course from 12z and follows the Euro westward in the Gulf while the legacy GFS develops a decently intense southeast coast scraper before moving out to sea. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

XxrBGeZ.png

 

Looks kind of lopsided.   Probably good for heavy rains and a couple  of weak tornadoes. Not good considering how much rain they've had in the MS Valley.  TS Lee 2011 comes to mind as an analog. This seems to be moving a little faster though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The shift west continues tonight on the GFS, with a due west trajectory through 108. Not a whole lot of meaningful intensification though as it remains large and disorganized. Pretty interesting run..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z Euro shifting west and bringing into Beaumont, TX area with a lot of rain and as a strong TS.

Odds of develooment up to 70%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8:00 am EDT NHC

image.png.9ef4d0f59945970ca024b75e99a93ddf.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, hlcater said:

Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?

From its performance up around our area I'm wondering if it's atmosphere coupled lol.:whistle:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish?


.

"TWA 517, do you want to report a UFO?" :P  Kidding.  There are some hints of a trough in the gulf around that time frame on some of the models so we'll see if that blip pops back up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year

euro shows hints of this 

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

and the river at NOLA will be above 15 feet well into August.... 

they just announced today they are keeping the spillway up north open longer (was going to close this week)

and up north isn't exactly dry (not hugely wet) as a front moves from north to south dumping rain in the watershed..

plus once they close the spillway... about 125,000 cfs of extra water will flow downstream ..at 16 feet the flow is 1,250,000 bfs at NOLA

so the closing of the spillway will off set some any reduction of flow from up  north

to sum up: NOLA still at risk from storm surge going up river

The Bonnet Carre Spillway will have to remain open longer than officials were hoping for as rainwater from once Hurricane Barry makes it’s way down the Mississippi River.

Corps of Engineers spokesperson Ricky Boyett says before they can close the Spillway, the river must drop to 21 feet at the structure, but that’s just not happening…

“Right now what we are really waiting on is for the rain to finish. As Barry moves up the valley, it’s putting more rain in the river and ultimately that rain has to come down to us.”

21 feet at the Spillway would put the river around 16 feet in New Orleans.

Boyett says they aren’t concerned that the additional water will put any of the levee system in danger.

“We’re not seeing a rise, what we’re seeing is an extended fall. It’s going to level out for about a week or so, and then we will start to see a slow fall.”

https://kpel965.com/bonnet-carre-to-remain-open/

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.
Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Windspeed said:
8 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:
Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August.

Even right now it's still warm enough for tropical systems

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Warm Eddy in the gulf looks like it's in a similar spot to 2005 fwiw.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Amped said:

The Warm Eddy in the gulf looks like it's in a similar spot to 2005 fwiw.

I had a feeling we could have a big hit this year. It will be hard though with El Nino conditions present, and only 12-13 named storms looking likely. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.