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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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12z ECMWF still doesn't show development for 94L. Considering how poorly it did with Dorian, increasing ensemble support, combined with it being peak season, makes me doubt that scenario.

 

06z/12z GFS picked it up again, but 18z has dropped it in favor of the wave immediately behind it. 

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7 hours ago, LandofLincoln said:

Heading to Antigua next Tuesday through Monday the following week. Have to say I'm rooting against this one.

don't be a buzzkill

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

don't be a buzzkill

Hey I’m fine with the 18z GFS solution, because I’ll be out of the area by then. But I’d rather not see my vacation have to be ended early.

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5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though.  Dangerous area if it did end up there.

Whats the Euro have?

It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

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Now the 12z's Euro and GFS are in general agreement with a storm developing just north of Puerto Rico.

Screenshot_20190907-153943_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190907-153935_Chrome.jpg

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Though 94L comes and goes with modeling development, and should continue getting watched, it is the following wave exiting the west African coast I believe will be our first CV longtracker with potential impacts. Gabrielle is technically a CV long tracker. At any rate, the new tropical wave should remain southerly in track through the MDR and strong signals of ridging next week may even drive it through the Lesser Antilles as a Caribbean runner. It already has a broad closed low and should detach itself from the ITCZ / monsoonal trough not too long after it emerges. This is way in advance and obviously subject to change, but it just has that look as well as decent low-level versus upper-level modeling support over the next 5-7 days. We are entering the height of the Cape Verde season climatological speaking, but you still have to have a favorable MDR. It looks like September into October will remain active.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

I thought when I produced my outlook, I was being really bullish. Apparently it wasn’t enough. Everything I’ve seen the last few days is a blaring signal for a lot of activity through early October. 

Combine that with the upper level pattern over the Atlantic and I think our tropical season is going to get a lot more rough. 

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6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

I feel like Ventrice busts a lot but I thought his posts on this domain were really interesting, especially given the timing and infrequency of SHem SSW events:
 

 

 

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12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

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12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about

He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party

Untitled.jpg

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2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party

Untitled.jpg

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb :lol:

Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb :lol:

Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean.  Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian?  Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2.  I'd love to see the models from mid-August.

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6 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida

 

Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but...

  • Confused 1

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but...

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola 

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5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola 

The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification.

 

Or the model is on crack.

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10 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification.

 

Or the model is on crack.

Ya, more like the model is on Crack...especially this far out.  

 

Interesting to see how it all evolves though going forward???

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