Kyle-1

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About Kyle-1

  • Birthday August 29

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    TPA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tampa, FL
  • Interests
    Photography, Astronomy, Severe Weather

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  1. Cell to the south of Dallas starting to look like it wants to produce too.
  2. Hook is getting nasty; debris ball likely on radar.
  3. Rotation definitely getting stronger, warning was the correct call. Decent hook near University Park.
  4. Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them.
  5. I count nearly half of the EPS members showing some sort of retrograde motion, as opposed to going straight out sea, on the 12z ECMWF Ensembles. Quite a bit more than what was shown on the 00z ECMWF Ensembles. Something to watch out for. This was how we got our first sign that Dorian would miss Florida.
  6. 12z ECMWF still doesn't show development for 94L. Considering how poorly it did with Dorian, increasing ensemble support, combined with it being peak season, makes me doubt that scenario. 06z/12z GFS picked it up again, but 18z has dropped it in favor of the wave immediately behind it.
  7. What's going on with the EWRC? The inner eyewall simply isn't letting up and is every bit intense as it's been all yesterday. Seems like every time that outer eyewall tries to wrap around it falls apart.
  8. Didn't see it posted, but Levi Cowan is suggesting the reason the HWRF is more west is because it's portraying a weaker storm than the GFS/ECMWF as a result of upwelling.
  9. Doesn't strike me as the profile you'd see for an EWRC. No appreciable double wind maximum.
  10. Dorian's refusal to enter an EWRC is very reminiscent of Irma. I don't think Irma actually had a true EWRC while it was powering westward, that inner eyewall just kept powering along.
  11. I don't think whether-or-not if the storm passes north/south of Freeport really matters at this point; it's how much longitude it moves before the stall happens that's the real concern. 12z EPS is actually tightly cluster on Freeport/slightly north of Freeport compared to 0z but was further west through the next 48 hours overall.
  12. FYI, the HMON has been scoring the absolute worst at all time periods for Dorian.