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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Just now, Ji said:

Ill take the euro...good dump of snow then ice and rain. Not bad for a transitional week to epic weenie 2nd half pattern

I am totally on board with the long range looks.  I think something good is coming.  But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground.  Would you really be happy with that?  Really?  Be honest with yourself.  

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that snowmap dosent make sense. There is 12 hours of snow on the euro for Loudoun

 

image.thumb.png.bcfc6f33a1e7dc0f9710a1d1aecc0136.png

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am totally on board with the long range looks.  I think something good is coming.  But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground.  Would you really be happy with that?  Really?  Be honest with yourself.  

dude i only like snow when its falling...i like seeing it fall.....when its over...im ready to move on. I 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I am totally on board with the long range looks.  I think something good is coming.  But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground.  Would you really be happy with that?  Really?  Be honest with yourself.  

Yes

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I tried to use my words wisely.  Still a wintery day before the deluge I suppose was my main point.

Yea... some might appreciate that and who I am to deb on that.  If some are happy to get a little taste of winter before another drenching rainstorm that is great... and they should enjoy it.  But this run is 90% rain and kind of a bummer after several euro runs in a row with a big snow event.  I am not surprised, not upset, not even disappointed.  This exact run is kind of what I have expected from this type of setup, and why I haven't let myself get excited yet.  A little bit of frozen to a lot of rain is kind of the climo favored outcome here.  But we have already beat the odds a few times this year so why not again maybe.  

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Yes

lol I know you would...and good for you, seriously.  But I was talking to Ji...and we both know the answer 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea... some might appreciate that and who I am to deb on that.  If some are happy to get a little taste of winter before another drenching rainstorm that is great... and they should enjoy it.  But this run is 90% rain and kind of a bummer after several euro runs in a row with a big snow event.  I am not surprised, not upset, not even disappointed.  This exact run is kind of what I have expected from this type of setup, and why I haven't let myself get excited yet.  A little bit of frozen to a lot of rain is kind of the climo favored outcome here.  But we have already beat the odds a few times this year so why not again maybe.  

lol i see snow from 00z to 6z. I see snow from 6z to 12z. i see ice from 12z to 18z...and then it goes to rain. thats 18 hours of winter conditions

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

that snowmap dosent make sense. There is 12 hours of snow on the euro for Loudoun

 

image.thumb.png.bcfc6f33a1e7dc0f9710a1d1aecc0136.png

The 850 only pushes south for a short period then retreats...barely gets much south of you at all...there is probably a very limited window of pure snow and low ratio at that.  It's a little far out to pick apart details like that.  But you were upset about the 0z run last night when it started in this direction...this run took another step and now you are ok with it?

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"meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing.

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Just now, Ji said:

lol i see snow from 00z to 6z. I see snow from 6z to 12z. i see ice from 12z to 18z...and then it goes to rain. thats 18 hours of winter conditions

and we are talking an op run a week out...who thinks its will look exactly like that.  will get excited or depressed on Friday at the earliest

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am totally on board with the long range looks.  I think something good is coming.  But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground.  Would you really be happy with that?  Really?  Be honest with yourself.  

I'd be exponentially happier with that compared to all rain. 

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. 

On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. 

If he can make it over to Colesville, he can add us to his client list.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 850 only pushes south for a short period then retreats...barely gets much south of you at all...there is probably a very limited window of pure snow and low ratio at that.  It's a little far out to pick apart details like that.  But you were upset about the 0z run last night when it started in this direction...this run took another step and now you are ok with it?

I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously 

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We all know the Euro is a fail, and it could happen that way. And we don’t need another deluge, even if it starts frozen. But I don’t think we should get tied to any scenarios until at least Thursday or Friday (as Bob mentioned).  It’s the typical 2 steps forward 1 step back. GEFS was a great run, but the Euro said no, as generally happens around this time.  We can always hope for a nice clean event for a PD3 if we can indeed score blocking. 

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

that snowmap dosent make sense. There is 12 hours of snow on the euro for Loudoun

 

image.thumb.png.bcfc6f33a1e7dc0f9710a1d1aecc0136.png

Isn't this just a six hour map?

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Wait, aren’t we supposed to not talk details (amounts and who mixes who doesn't) at 5-6 day leads? This place is confusing at times. :D

I think when it’s the Euro it’s a sharper wound.  If the JMA said no it would an lol moment and move on.  Euro no’s are death blows

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New thread for next weeks storm chance. This thread will still be the NAO/soi/EPO/PNA/MJO extravaganza.

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously 

At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

6 or 7 days is still too far out to expect clarity with the models imho.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

6 or 7 days is still too far out to expect clarity with the models imho.

Except when they all generally agree or are moving towards a cruddier scenario. We (most of us) were resigned to the fact this was not going to be a clean snow event so theres that.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. 

 

Hmm, following the lead of the CFS maybe. EPS will be telling. Regardless, expect big time improvements to show themselves very soon. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Fozz said:

"meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing.

don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later

Its all prelude to the epic pattern coming in 10-15 days. This time it's for real.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its all prelude to the epic pattern coming in 10-15 days. This time it's for real.

You are probably kidding but I am not...if these day 10 looks are even remotely close than an epic pattern is coming day 10+.  

pressuregood.thumb.png.8880d71edfd8fd30e657dc52c4b43ccd.png

crashing soi

pressuregood2.thumb.png.927c34005426e7bfe9c5955e241b6b22.png

I will take that look day 10 and roll with it

So the op euro is an example of how next week could fail...and I kind of think that's how it "might" go down but I am confident we will have more chances and better ones after.  

NOT saying next week will fail... but if it does I think a better pattern is on the way with the trough axis shifting east.  

 

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