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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

someone hasn't been paying attention in class - that's all the professors here have been discussing all semester:grad:

You guys lost me after -NAO and -EPO. There's just too many initials for my ADHD addled brain. Something about blocking. I know we mostly don't have it anymore. And suppression, when we do get some blocking it's too much. And south and east winds, not just bad for fishing, bad for snow...how'm I doin? 

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41 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You guys lost me after -NAO and -EPO. There's just too many initials for my ADHD addled brain. Something about blocking. I know we mostly don't have it anymore. And suppression, when we do get some blocking it's too much. And south and east winds, not just bad for fishing, bad for snow...how'm I doin? 

-EPO

+PNA

-NAO

-AO

MJO p8/p1

 

Ticking timebomb of a pattern if those indices were to occur all at once.

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I believe a favorable pacific pattern is more important to have in our favor over a favorable Atlantic. You can still snow with a +NAO but it’s much more difficult to snow with a +EPO/-PNA. 

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

and no mention anymore of snowstorms...…….

There are some possibilities, but I want to see how the pattern begins to work out. The subtropical jet could become more active down the road.

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2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

and no mention anymore of snowstorms...…….

if we end up back at MJO 5 or 6, it's lights out on the rest of the month most likely....need a push into 8-1-2 which we have yet to see this winter for some reason

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

if we end up back at MJO 5 or 6, it's lights out on the rest of the month most likely....need a push into 8-1-2 which we have yet to see this winter for some reason

The mjo was in 8 for a short time . D.C got their snowstorm when the mjo was in 8

 

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The mjo was in 8 for s short time . D.C got their snowstorm when the mjo was in 8

 

That won't really cut it-it might get us a storm, but we need a good strong run through the good phases in order to get a 2-3 week period with multiple threats....

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

That won't really cut it-it might get us a storm, but we need a good strong run through the good phases in order to get a 2-3 week period with multiple threats....

As it's been all season, I'm not the least bit interested in any significant snow threat here until the roaring zonal Pacific jet slows down and we see sustained ridging in the West. Then maybe we could at least luck out with a well timed and placed system that can track favorably for us. With the Pacific jet the way it is, we're destined for either cutters and transient cold, or lousy suppressed to garbage storms. The Atlantic looks to be little or no help either, with weak assistance from the NAO at best. The post day 7 storms will continue to be mirages until that changes. A 1-3/2-4" type event is possible, but even that hasn't happened near the coast whatsoever. 

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s not a common occurrence for DC to get to double digit seasonal snowfall by January 31st ahead of NYC. I could only find 4 other years since 1950.

Seasonal snowfall by January 31st

2019....DCA......12.9......NYC.....7.5

2000..................14.5..................9.5

1990..................12.7...................7.9

1963..................18.3.........,.........9.8

1957...................10.3..................9.8

long live 1989-1990!  it made it into the list lol.

by the way, in three out of four of the above the winters following those winters was pretty good

1957-68

1963-64

not 1990-91 lol

and 2000-01 even with the March 01 miss

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least NYC was able to go above 2012 for days with a high below 32. Today was number 6 on the season so far. 

NYC days with a high below 32 during the 2010’s

25......2014

21......2015

19......2018....2011

15......2010

10......2016

9........2017....2013

6........2019.....so far

4........2012

 

 

last year was a pretty good winter, and yet not forecast to be like this one was

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9 hours ago, TwcMan said:

I believe a favorable pacific pattern is more important to have in our favor over a favorable Atlantic. You can still snow with a +NAO but it’s much more difficult to snow with a +EPO/-PNA. 

I have a strong feeling this winter you'll need everything to line up otherwise it'll continue to be a thread the needle pattern.

without the -NAO you'll see coastal huggers or suppression without a favorable pacific you'll see cutters or suppression.

 

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp is 12 here. 

...KFOK @ 3*.

..i'm @ 7.7*.

interestingly enough Gabreski got down to -0* between 1am-2am..

more wasted cold.

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1 hour ago, tim said:

...KFOK @ 3*.

..i'm @ 7.7*.

interestingly enough Gabreski got down to -0* between 1am-2am..

more wasted cold.

Our only storm track options since the fall have been cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream. We really got lucky in November. That hugger ran into the Arctic high over the Maritimes and dumped the record early snows. If it wasn’t for that storm, we would be near 1” on the season so far.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Our only storm track options since the fall have been cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream. We really got lucky in November. That hugger ran into the Arctic high over the Maritimes and dumped the record early snows. If it wasn’t for that storm, we would be near 1” on the season so far.

Euro ensembles warming in the long range for the east-cold looks centered out west...with each passing day it becomes more possible that the 11/15 event will be our biggest event of the winter

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The model runs last night were an unmitigated disaster as far the eye can see. It was reminiscent of February, 2012 

in the end, the MJO will decide a good part of it-if it goes back to the poor phases, lights out....

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39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro ensembles warming in the long range for the east-cold looks centered out west...with each passing day it becomes more possible that the 11/15 event will be our biggest event of the winter

This big -PNA coming up looks like something out of a La Niña February. The strong MJO 4-6 phases this winter really altered the El Niño pattern. 

 

98538C5B-7670-447E-87FA-4A3DDB46200B.thumb.gif.3badfdbe7fa57e2a1f63bd6fc943b1d6.gif

 

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46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The model runs last night were an unmitigated disaster as far the eye can see. It was reminiscent of February, 2012 

I hope so, let this disaster of a winter burn and have it take all those snowy forecasts with them. 

Nothing this winter reminded me of a Nino, at best it was a Nina hybrid and now Feb looks like a full Nina. It's been the most unusual winter I've ever seen. I don't think it fits into any analog group. 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This big -PNA coming up looks like something out of a La Niña February. The strong MJO 4-6 phases this winter really altered the El Niño pattern. 

 

98538C5B-7670-447E-87FA-4A3DDB46200B.thumb.gif.3badfdbe7fa57e2a1f63bd6fc943b1d6.gif

 

The CanSIPS may not have been so crazy. The model runs last night are ugly right past mid February 

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55 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

winter been over for weeks now.. about time die hard winter fans admit it....

I'm still holding out hope because it's only early February but the guidance looks atrocious .

No one predicted this winter to be terrivle for Boston, NYC and Philly. Majority of forecasts had near 30-40 inches for NYC with more in Boston .

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How’s it over when Chicago reaches one of the coldest nights in its history we’ve had two single digit temps in January and it’s 20 degrees right now. Winter is not over, it doesn’t want to snow but more cold air is coming for sure.

Didn't you know that around here winter is only defined only by how much snow you accumulate above your seasonal average ?

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How’s it over when Chicago reaches one of the coldest nights in its history we’ve had two single digit temps in January and it’s 20 degrees right now. Winter is not over, it doesn’t want to snow but more cold air is coming for sure.

Agree

Winter isn't over but the guidance looks terrible for snow.. Can it snow? Sure but the PNA and MJO better gets its act quick pretty soon.

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How’s it over when Chicago reaches one of the coldest nights in its history we’ve had two single digit temps in January and it’s 20 degrees right now. Winter is not over, it doesn’t want to snow but more cold air is coming for sure.

Nobody cares about cold without snow. 

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nobody cares about cold without snow. 

I know me neither but come on winter isn’t over. There’ll be plenty of snow chances it’s february 2nd for Pete’s sake. Models are good for 5 days tops. Let’s see what they sort out today! I mean it can’t be over I’m jumping! :cliff:

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