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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF
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Here's what the 3k NAM was calling for at this hour... just some spotty light rain IMBY with a surface temp of 41. And yet, we're instead getting solid SN at 33 with most surfaces other than roads starting to cave.

The NAM was wrong, and I was wrong for writing this off because of it. Of course to be fair, these fine details are not easy to figure out, but a last minute shift for the worse isn't always going to be right.

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5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Here's what the 3k NAM was calling for at this hour... just some spotty light rain IMBY with a surface temp of 41. And yet, we're instead getting solid SN at 33 with most surfaces other than roads starting to cave.

The NAM was wrong, and I was wrong for writing this off because of it. Of course to be fair, these fine details are not easy to figure out, but a last minute shift for the worse isn't always going to be right.

 

If you toss every single nam run (or not even look at it) and rely heavily on the globals you will do far better in forecasting your backyard and setting expectations. Are the nams right sometimes and the globals wrong? Yea, that definitely happens. But the vast majority of the times a simple gfs/euro blend will be closest to the ground truth. 

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