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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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Cut, just so clear... that is a different rooted phenomenon to what Ray and I were just discussing... You may be using that other discussion as a segue but, that's different phenomenon. 

 

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Meh, it was directed at Ray...  I don't care if either of you get enlightened and/or engage in any endeavor to do so...  

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Cut, just so clear... that is a different rooted phenomenon to what Ray and I were just discussing... You may be using that other discussion as a segue but, that's different phenomenon. 

 

No relation? It's interesting none the less as we cruise towards solar minimum.

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3 minutes ago, cut said:

No relation? It's interesting none the less as we cruise towards solar minimum.

No relationship... 

The main focus was actually the Pacific SSTs on the winter circulation...  I digressed into aeronautics ... about fluid dynamics wrt to wind resistance...  which solar radiation is effecting airline personnel is a separate matter.  

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh, it was directed at Ray...  I don't care if either of you get enlightened and/or engage in any endeavor to do so...  

 

We just joshing. I read them, not that you care, but I do. I magically become smarter afterwards ....but it doesn’t last long. 

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We need a poll of the % of folks reading tips post in their entirety....

I do.  Sure, they're dense, but it's part of why I come to the board.  Otherwise the discussion thread's 90% posts by the southern NEs whining about the crap winter down there.  The amazing and wonderful 2015 winter has developed into a sense of entitlement.

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Okay ...so,.... mmyeah, okay.  

Some models trying to come back with a bit more amplitude and so forth for that critical Feb 27 through March 5 (or so...) time span.  But, part of the problem with the guidance ...particularly at this range, is what I was just commiserating with Ray about, ...the flow is too fast for phasing.  The GFS actually came about half way back... the GGEM has a tantalizing solution where southern stream deep west Atlantic low is just missed capture.  

I think Scott's advice is salient ... prooobably not a lot of determinism outside of 4 days in this particular set of circumstances..  

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We just joshing. I read them, not that you care, but I do. I magically become smarter afterwards ....but it doesn’t last long. 

I'm just ribbing back - ...but mine are meaner and assholier ;)   it's the way I roll 

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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We need a poll of the % of folks reading tips post in their entirety....

 

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Less than 10%

I do. I learn a lot from them. He was one of the only mets who suspected this winter would be a klunker

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13 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I do.  Sure, they're dense, but it's part of why I come to the board.  Otherwise the discussion thread's 90% posts by the southern NEs whining about the crap winter down there.  The amazing and wonderful 2015 winter has developed into a sense of entitlement.

You know it's true ....  

that 'entitlement'? 

or maybe that's a little too strong of a word, but it does seem to lead a failure to recede back into one's climatology on some level or another.  Prior to the demise of Eastern WX ... the mid-Atlantic folk were insufferable - and I'm not sure whether you, or anyone else reading this ... , were part of the 2002-2009 era, but particularly in the earlier years, they did not cordon off "sub-forums" by region. It was a very different culture.   Not judging...just sayn'. 

Anyway, 1996 utterly RUINED them folks.  I don't know what was worse, the storm, or... the unmitigated sense of feeling ripped off every year after the fact ...at least through 2006 before they came back to Earth and seemed like their tone and tenors were not as offended by mere normal PHL climate.  1996, in case folks are wondering, is the year of the great Megalopolis Blizzard... 

They've had other extra-ordinary winters in the MA since.  2010 leaps to mind... but, we haven't been interacting with those cats down that way nearly as intimately since American came on line, and is heavily sub-forum contained.  So who knows what their expectations are like now...  Course, in 15 years of weather social media shenanigans ... it's unlikely the same users are there anyway. 

Point is, I know what you mean and I agree.  It seems years like 1996, 2010... 2015 ... 2008 ..whatever, we tend to spin up hopes pretty high and have to crash pretty hard when dr reality serves a dose of sanity. 

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Euro isn't even close for Wednesday....a totally different look than other guidance. It's really cold with temps near 0F though....

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro isn't even close for Wednesday....a totally different look than other guidance. It's really cold with temps near 0F though....

Euro also was last to the potty for the Monday snowstorm. It’s tossed today 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... deeper than all that.. 

I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - 

Firstly,  ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. 

Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina.  As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not.  Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental.  

It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina.  SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds.   I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation.  NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else.

Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week.  That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway.  Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom.  Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji.  This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated  (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds...  The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to...  These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... 

But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.  

 

Okay, gotcha. And I didn't take offense to anything...no worries.

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

I'll make sure my wife wears sunscreen while she's working:P

I've never thought of the radiation aspect of flying - though it makes sense as the earths protective layer is thinner up there - just like Mt. Everest.

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Either last year or the year before we had a heck of a windstorm.. trees snapping and power flashes in the distance, it definitely  was wild for a bit

Last October I think. No damage or power issues here. The last damage around here that I recall is October of 2011. Allot more wind/snow damage when I lived in Coventry. We even had a tornado in July 2013.

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D 7/8's got a decent prelude set up ...not sure it'll do anything with it on this run... but, with the EPO ridge dislodged and drifting into NW Canada, it should push that SPV fragment S and into that "dent" in the field over the Missouri Valley region...  The flow over the Gulf and Florida and so forth is also less compressed ... 

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Lol at this season, the EURO is cooking up something good at 198 hours, coming up the coast and right on cue @216 it has no precip over SNE as the low is moving ENE...It does snow in PA though :frostymelt:

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Heh... I'd watch that... 

The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me.  Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s) 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I'd watch that... 

The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me.  Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA with while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s) 

Its a lot of parts that are disjointed at that time, it has something cooking at Day 9 in the midwest right after the swing and miss. Probably better not to be a bullseye at this point since we all know how that has worked out so far this year. That day 7-10 periods seems ripe for something, definitely a window for something more "substantial" than this year has produced.

Also that period of time has a lot of southern stream moisture being worked into the equation...lots of cold to the north, lots of moisture to the south hopefully they can combine into something nice here and not over the plains...the southeast ridge seems to be beaten down at that time too.

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30 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:
59 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:
I do. I learn a lot from them. He was one of the only mets who suspected this winter would be a klunker

I usually just read the last paragraph

I read until I come across something I don't understand . . . so one or two sentences on average. :arrowhead::axe::lol:

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I read them when I have time.  During the work day it’s never.

This.  While at work there just isn't time to delve in to the deep ideas most times.

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