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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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37 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So now you can get solar embedded in roof shingles?  If so that’s the move.  Welcome to the 495 belt Mike!

OT, So the answer is maybe, Tesla offers what I consider to most desirable solution, albeit untested. Combined with a power wall a good solution for new construction. Expensive. Best article I have come across on it

https://news.energysage.com/should-i-wait-for-tesla-solar-roof/

on topic , gonna rain some more here

 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m thoroughly looking forward to the big rips Monday. Those kinds of winds are what you take a day off for to watch stuff crash down 

That October 2017 and March 2018 were like that. You could hear the gusts and the sound of shit snapping. Not easy to do with hardwoods too.

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Two snow chances next week. First one is up in the air. I think euro op is trash so tossed. Might be a light event, but tough to say. Second one maybe weekend and that could be a biggie. 

There all up in the air, That’s where they fall from.  Lol

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That October 2017 and March 2018 were like that. You could hear the gusts and the sound of shit snapping. Not easy to do with hardwoods too.

Sounds like some of these weenies on here are thinking NBD. They’ll find out soon enough 

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BTW and tamarack may appreciate this. The amount of white pine damage on the s shore in incredible. There’s some areas that are completely void of them. It’s like Mother Nature said enough of these things. Pretty amazing. I was at my parents and I can see houses in the woods that were never visible. 

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Every other model has next Wednesday but the euro isn't biting. We'll see if that comes back. 

Mar 1-2 looks interesting too. 

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The snowpack we have is very robust. A lot of sleet and ice in the snow.  With the last cutter we only hit 43 here and the damage was not huge even with higher dews. Its going to take a really warm cutter I think to melt this off and I don't see anything like that imminent.

With the sun angle increasing, the exposed areas will lose snow quickly though with even some relatively benign "cool" days like today with highs near 40.

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1 minute ago, White Rain said:

The snowpack we have is very robust. A slot sleet and ice in the snow.  With the last cutter we only hit 43 here and the damage was not huge even with higher dews. Its going to take a really warm cutter I think to melt this off and I don't see anything like that imminent.

With the sun angle increasing the sun exposed areas will lose snow quickly though with even some relatively benign "cool" days like day with highs near 40.

You’ll keep yours. But it’s gone be ugly in spots with the sun taking a toll in typical sunny areas and the rain coming up. 

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4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Well, the Pit was sold yesterday.  Hanging in Westboro last night while we wait for our purchase to get recorded.  Then, bring in the movers.  

I am beat!!!!

It looks like I've missed diddly on the board during my move.  This weekend will allow me to see what types of leaks exist in the new house.

Congrats, All done flipping houses now?

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57 minutes ago, S&P said:

OT, So the answer is maybe, Tesla offers what I consider to most desirable solution, albeit untested. Combined with a power wall a good solution for new construction. Expensive. Best article I have come across on it

https://news.energysage.com/should-i-wait-for-tesla-solar-roof/

on topic , gonna rain some more here

 

Mitch just got a tesla power wall installed in his new house. 

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48 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

MPM Hubby and Me stay mostly ice on Sunday..(please!). Comes in at night....perfect for big dog accretion. 0.6"

enjoy your 33 and rain 

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I mean, if it gets really bad model wise, we can always just hang out and calculate the weight of a cubic yard of snow for different water ratios...that went over pretty smoothly last night, if i do say so myself 

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

I mean, if it gets really bad model wise, we can always just hang out and calculate the weight of a cubic yard of snow for different water ratios...that went over pretty smoothly last night, if i do say so myself 

That gave me an ice cream headache....................:blink:

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15 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

1" of water over 1 sq ft is 929 mL, at 20 deg C, 760 torr of atmospheric pressure that would be 929 g or 2.08 lbs. Probably a little more than that for water near 0 deg C.

 

For 1" deep snow, assuming a 10:1 ratio, that's 0.208 lbs/ft^2, more if sleet/wet snow, less if fluff.

That's for I cm depth, not 1".  Gotta cube that 2.54 cm/inch, not square it.

Morning map from GYX shows our area at 5" (90%); 7" (expected); 13" (10%) - big spread at the low prob end, still some p-type questions.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

House was built in 86. Knock on wood nothing immediately needed, but those items I mentioned are original. I already lost a few shingles in recent storms over last few years. 

When we bought our house 10 years ago it was a complete rehab.  We went with the fiber cement Hardie Planks instead of siding or shingles.  Easy to paint, look great and incredibly durable!  A little more expensive and you need to find a contractor who knows what they are doing, but worth the investment.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Every other model has next Wednesday but the euro isn't biting. We'll see if that comes back. 

Mar 1-2 looks interesting too. 

God bless you...my hours of long range threat hunting are done until next December. If a valid threat shows up inside of 4-5 days, then I'm in.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW and tamarack may appreciate this. The amount of white pine damage on the s shore in incredible. There’s some areas that are completely void of them. It’s like Mother Nature said enough of these things. Pretty amazing. I was at my parents and I can see houses in the woods that were never visible. 

Stephen Long's book "Thirty Eight: The Hurricane that Transformed New England" goes into considerable detail on tree damage and salvage, with white pine front and center.   Grows fast and tall, wood is brittle, the one species that commonly projects well above the general crown level - no surprise it does poorly when the gusts pass 50 mph.

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ORH county def has to watch the ice...it starts in the upper 20s to near 30F, and then we see a "jump" to like 33-34F between 12z and 15z....this is often bogus diurnal warming by the model. I could see it staying below freezing much of the morning hours and that could produce some nasty glazing. I don't think overall it will be a huge deal...the QPF just is't enough and you typically want a better high position.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH county def has to watch the ice...it starts in the upper 20s to near 30F, and then we see a "jump" to like 33-34F between 12z and 15z....this is often bogus diurnal warming by the model. I could see it staying below freezing much of the morning hours and that could produce some nasty glazing. I don't think overall it will be a huge deal...the QPF just is't enough and you typically want a better high position.

wind field starts afternoon or late evening Sunday? Just wondering 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Every other model has next Wednesday but the euro isn't biting. We'll see if that comes back. 

Mar 1-2 looks interesting too. 

EPS is utterly devoid of that mid week thingy too - ...at least per 00z.

In fact, I'm rather bemused at everything this morning.  Not that anyone asked - 

But, there's all but one storm, granted a robust one  ... for western Ontario ...Otherwise, with two to perhaps three intensely deepy -EPO cold dump events track-able throughout the Euro run (for example), we are left being sold that nothing necessarily happens of consequence between those oscillations that span some 0C to -30C at 850s, along with concomitant wave roll-outs.  ..... nothing else.  Hmm.  I guess.  Oh, there are other cyclones dappled about the hemispheric space, but they are fractal blips ... gone upon the next run. There's no like clad signal ...anywhere.  It really is rather remarkable. 

The thing is, they are all doing this... Not just the Euro.  The GFS is clearly suffering from velocity induced "ripping" in the W-E coordinate...by the way.  I really suggest people get their heads around this concept limitation... perhaps even start modulating a "butt f*" index into their seasonal outlooks.  Ray's?  shit ... it woulda been spot on... if he had only included this one factor - if he had known about velocity saturation and this secondary interference problem ... this piece of utter shit resultant winter might have naturally fallen out of that arithmetic of factors.

Little tongue in cheek there... ha... but... see, part of the problem really is what I feel is a static problem with subtropical height abundance ( a positive anomaly that may be unnoticed of sorts...) that is girdled the hemisphere from HA all the way around to the N. Atlantic.  As mid ...now late winter height nadir reaching its maximum depth presses down from higher latitudes... it's defaulting the whole scope and scale into a hurried over abundant velocity rich environment. And one that is destructively interfering against more organized systemic events.   Some pricey words there ...but, just think of it this way (for the lay folk) ... it's hard to organize a marching band with hyperactive kids. 

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