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Bob Chill

MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

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Man

-30 850s and moisture. I see how the isobars of the low show northeast move but then by western Kentucky the isobars show  the latitude gain would stop. Also gotta think for an hour or two post arctic frontal passage that it's going to be squally.

 

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6 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

WPC latest track looks like the nams 

lowtrack_circles.gif

I said yesterday low goes right over DC. That track keeps us in low 40’s and then when you have extreme cold lurking the low quickly “flushes” the cold air downward and into our area very quickly after moving east/northeast of the city.

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Euro wind gust panels (usually overdone) are showing 35-40mph gusts with temps in the teens late Sunday afternoon. We may not get much frozen out of this deal but it's going to feel like deep winter late Sunday through all of Monday. 

ETA: Up to 50mph gusts in NE MD on Monday. Not a good day to walk around nude in the yard. 

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Euro is a significant event for the mountains of western MD.  Cumberland gets over 6” of snow.  Garrett basically stays below freezing the whole event except for an hour or two after midnight as temps really crash.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Euro is a significant event for the mountains of western MD.  Cumberland gets over 6” of snow.  Garrett basically stays below freezing the whole event except for an hour or two after midnight as temps really crash.

How much snow does Garrett county get?  It is hard to tell on these maps how the mountains in Garrett county are affected.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro wind gust panels (usually overdone) are showing 35-40mph gusts with temps in the teens late Sunday afternoon. We may not get much frozen out of this deal but it's going to feel like deep winter late Sunday through all of Monday. 

ETA: Up to 50mph gusts in NE MD on Monday. Not a good day to walk around nude in the yard. 

NEMD pummeled! By wind chill

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2 minutes ago, pitmd said:

How much snow does Garrett county get?  It is hard to tell on these maps how the mountains in Garrett county are affected.

2-4”/3-5” with more in the eastern part of the county near the border with Allegany. Sleet/ice would be bigger story verbatim. 

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6 minutes ago, pitmd said:

How much snow does Garrett county get?  It is hard to tell on these maps how the mountains in Garrett county are affected.

NWS Pitt just upgraded to a warning for Garrett and an advisory for Canaan. Here is the warning for Garrett:

O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0002.190119T1200Z-190120T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190118T1900Z/
Garrett-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
and Grantsville
110 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Patchy freezing drizzle will wane this afternoon. Heavy
  mixed precipitation is expected Saturday and Sunday. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of one-tenth
  to two-tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Garrett County Maryland.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM
  EST Sunday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 2 PM this
  afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
  difficult travel conditions.

 

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WWA just posted for S Baltimore, Central & SE Howard, and SE Harford Counties.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUED: 1:27 PM JAN. 18, 2019 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of up to one inch and less than a tenth of
an inch of ice accumulation expected.

* WHERE...Southern Baltimore, Central and Southeast Howard and
Southeast Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 9 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro wind gust panels (usually overdone) are showing 35-40mph gusts with temps in the teens late Sunday afternoon. We may not get much frozen out of this deal but it's going to feel like deep winter late Sunday through all of Monday. 

ETA: Up to 50mph gusts in NE MD on Monday. Not a good day to walk around nude in the yard. 

I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for  hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago?

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6 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Winter storm warnings up for northern Baltimore County and other parts of Maryland. I'm shocked.

They seem to be being overly cautious..I guess maybe they think colder ground temps will come into play? Or the shutdown has mentally drained them. I don’t see any model that supports 1” of snow around Baltimore currently 

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

They seem to be being overly cautious..I guess maybe they think colder ground temps will come into play? Or the shutdown has mentally drained them. I don’t see any model that supports 1” of snow around Baltimore currently 

Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for  hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago?

Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day.  Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls.  I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so.  Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were.  The following day it was still windy and in the teens.

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for  hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago?

2/14/15 was the intense snow squall.  

2/13/17 had an great wind-driven rain squall

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The NWS forecast for Fairfax is snow with rain and snow on Saturday, changing to rain Saturday night, with a high of 41 before dropping through the day on Sunday.  That is significantly colder than the 50’s that was forecasted earlier in the week. My concern is the icing Sunday and Monday, even in this area, from the rain plus the melted snow. I would think there would be more advisories on Sunday for our area. 

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Models having hard time with lurking arctic blast, snow cover, and assertive cold high pressures in general

perhaps we spike in next two hours but forecasts  yesterday for this afternoon were highs in upper 40’s and were in upper 30’s so far.  This is not garden variety cold lurking and really any high pressure that we have had for these events has been suppressive. There have definitely been stone cold cutters but we are not in that kind of pattern now. 

 

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet

I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in Baltimore:wacko2:I also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. 

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10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day.  Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls.  I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so.  Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were.  The following day it was still windy and in the teens.

Thanks. It was wet and sideways like out of a fire hose, 1” in 22 minutes 

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in Baltimore:wacko2:I also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. 

the warning vs advisory is for ice not snow

N Carroll and Baltimore - 1/4 ice, 1-3 snow/sleet

N Harford - 1/10 ice 1-2 snow/sleet

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