moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The next two cycles are when the meltdowns happens as we tickle north...classic 24-48 hour N trend. Then we'll get the "inside 24 hour messenger SE slide" and end up back to where we were before all of that. Those are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ECMWF is extremely icy in Connecticut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: It’s what the bosses want. What can you do? Yea I know all hype all the time. Worst thing that ever happened to great Mets that and 10 day forecasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow that 18z EURO is pure filth with the mid level fronto banding up here. Thats how you can rack it up. That band is the key in NNE. Even the basic 3-hr QPF panels pick it out easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: ECMWF is extremely icy in Connecticut. Non-Electric Blue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: ECMWF is extremely icy in Connecticut. Yea about HVN HFD west, torches ECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Wow that 18z EURO is pure filth with the mid level fronto banding up here. Thats how you can rack it up. That band is the key in NNE. Even the basic 3-hr QPF panels pick it out easily. Hey, James is in the Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Wow that 18z EURO is pure filth with the mid level fronto banding up here. Thats how you can rack it up. That band is the key in NNE. Even the basic 3-hr QPF panels pick it out easily. Mid-coast ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea about HVN HFD west, torches ECT Rain for Kevin, Ice for Ryan? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea I know all hype all the time. Worst thing that ever happened to great Mets that and 10 day forecasts And future cast. I recall when the on air mets gave their own thoughts and ideas on storms. At times there were widely divergent takes on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Harvey is bullish. He doesn’t absolutely hug the guidance so it would have to change substantially for him to make a big redo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: ECMWF is extremely icy in Connecticut. Models have been hitting at a decent amount of ice since Sat; tough forecast to make, I don'tenvy you. Is the Quinebaug Valley ever as susceptible to ZR as the CT River valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wow that 18z EURO is pure filth with the mid level fronto banding up here. Thats how you can rack it up. That band is the key in NNE. Even the basic 3-hr QPF panels pick it out easily. 7-10 split N of coastal front and S of ML goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Rain for Kevin, Ice for Ryan? Well IDK Kev seems safely west. Typical north bump? see what tomorrow brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Imo Harvey ends up 4-8 for this area which is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Harvey is bullish. He doesn’t absolutely hug the guidance so it would have to change substantially for him to make a big redo. He has to use guidance this far out? I mean we are only talking 50 miles of upper air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The next two cycles are when the meltdowns happens as we tickle north...classic 24-48 hour N trend. Then we'll get the "inside 24 hour messenger SE slide" and end up back to where we were before all of that. The next 24-36 hours separates the men from the boys . You have the model huggers who think each run is the final outcome.. and then you have the few who understand what can and can’t happen based on this setup . And they end up the victors when the others come back as models come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The next 24-36 hours separates the men from the boys . You have the model huggers who think each run is the final outcome.. and then you have the few who understand what can and can’t happen based on this setup . And they end up the victors when the others come back as models come back You ain’t getting to 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You ain’t getting to 32 You and I and Ginx and Will know that.. but Ryan and other melters seem to not get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He has to use guidance this far out? I mean we are only talking 50 miles of upper air He’s about 70 and he’s been doing these with pretty high accuracy since he started at Providence over 40 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You and I and Ginx and Will know that.. but Ryan and other melters seem to not get it I think Ryan said you will stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: He’s about 70 and he’s been doing these with pretty high accuracy since he started at Providence over 40 years ago. Hand drawn maps based on surface data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I think Ryan said you will stay cold. You missed his last post then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Hand drawn maps based on surface data? You can use pattern recognition. We have a brutally cold Arctic high in a spot that we couldn't draw better than where it is to stay cold....so he could be hedging a bit colder based on that. I am leaning that way too. There's time to adjust if models really change. I mean, there's a reason we know kevin isn't hitting freezing despite several model runs showing him over freezing including the king euro himself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 who melted? discussion has been pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is when the humans beat the models . There’s only a few that can look past models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That high is such s thing of beauty such a beast to lock in surface cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 SREFS always have to have that one 30 inch member lol. They did up the qpf though for the queens at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea I know all hype all the time. Worst thing that ever happened to great Mets that and 10 day forecasts I talked with Todd Gross (good 90's Boston Met) about that and he was the first person I ever heard use the term "chamber of commerce forecast". I remember him saying how much he hated long range forecasts and how even the 5 day was a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is when the humans beat the models . There’s only a few that can look past models yeah, hopefully you can join them soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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