ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Also, snow ends in SNE during the mid to late afternoon Sunday. Has a nice little ending for eastern zones Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs finally catches a clue. gfs was drunk. Now just waking up with a hangover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ice1972 said: Don't forget the chain and padlock for the genny...... My style is a put the genny outside someplace that once it snows would be a BITCH to steal...You think you can drag it through a foot of snow before I catch you? Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, #NoPoles said: So this storm is currently basically at the west coast thursday night, and affecting the east coast saturday night. This thing is flying. I cant fathom how this is supposed to drop big snow totals. I mean, maybe where the mid level fronto genesis occurs...but im having a hard time believing that heavy amounts of precip will occur over a decently large geographical area It won’t outside of banding. That’s one of DT and Larry Cosgrove’s rules. Fast moving storms you always see the QPF “mysteriously” drop as you get inside 48 hours. I think 15 or more will be mostly higher terrain and in banding for sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought it would be much further se as it hit the EC based on h5, but it jams the sfc north when I finally looked at the pretty precip fields. GFS will keep correcting SE with sfc as we get closer. That's almost a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS will keep correcting SE with sfc as we get closer. That's almost a no brainer. What an awful model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nice backside in SWCT. A couple of hours of snow with plunging temps and high winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought it would be much further se as it hit the EC based on h5, but it jams the sfc north when I finally looked at the pretty precip fields. It kind of pump the brakes on the east progression, But you had it trying to phase too so that started to tug it more north the NE at the end, That is what i have seen happening today, Is s/w is weaker down south so its getting further east before its starting to be influenced by the northern stream and then a late phase at this lat up here and NE Maine and the Maritimes get clocked, Earlier runs had it stronger down south tracking further north then getting some interaction with the northern stream a tic or two sooner and keeping the track over SE MA/Cape into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS will keep correcting SE with sfc as we get closer. That's almost a no brainer. Do you think it gets above 32F along I95? Machete to your head.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: What an awful model! It’s very bad on any type of SWFE. We’ve seen that for years. The NAM used to always have south bias problems with them too beyond 48. That doesn’t seem to be an issue with it anymore. A decade ago the only decent model on SWFEs beyond 48-60 was the Euro. The NAM is respectable now at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Do you think it gets above 32F along I95? Machete to your head.... No. Maybe far SW CT near Greenwich does but otherwise it's gonna be really tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No. Maybe far SW CT near Greenwich does but otherwise it's gonna be really tough. That’s a problem, I’ll alert my subscribers to go rent gennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Almost 2 inches of qpf on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That was a good thump for BOS. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS has been so off here lately i don't place much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was a good thump for BOS. I'd hit it. You'd bang it and i would throat punch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a problem, I’ll alert my subscribers to go rent gennies. I should also have added that further east near GON will get above freezing but I assumed you weren't talking about them. I think there is still a lot of uncertainty around the icing there. As QPF has diminished, the icing danger isn't quite as bad. Could be more like 0.35-0.50 type ice which would cause some problems but not nearly as catastrophic as, say, 0.75-1.00 accretion. This could still end up as a sleet bomb too...watch for deeper cold layer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You'd bang it and i would throat punch it. Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. Melts? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a problem, I’ll alert my subscribers to go rent gennies. Dont underestimate the rush on generators. In 2008 when my area got pretty much destroyed by an ice storm, I had to drive from the NH border almost to CT to find a generator in stock. I'm honestly surprised so many live long term in the NE without a generator. Unless its a tiny affected area theres no ROI on stores stocking enough generators to actually meet demand in an actual event...most stock for their usual yearly purchase volume. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. See if we can crack 10” of snow on the season too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. I just don't trust it, That what i'm getting at, Its had a lackluster performance, Hopefully it remains cold for your areas as your on the fence down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. Can you let the weenies have one win? Geez you’re a wet blanket haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I just don't trust it, That what i'm getting at, Its had a lackluster performance, Hopefully it remains cold for your areas as your on the fence down there. I don’t trust it either lol. You should do well there . That’s an arctic over your fanny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Can you let the weenies have one win? Geez you’re a wet blanket haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Because people know weather is a passion Im getting emails, text, fb messages all asking me about this huge storm. People are hearing feet of snow and so much over hype up here. A friend just texted me they heard 3 feet for Nashua. GFS keeps trimming qpf about .8 now. This seems like it will be a fairly normal winter storm for us. 8-14" of powder easy to remove snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: It kind of pump the brakes on the east progression, But you had it trying to phase too so that started to tug it more north the NE at the end, That is what i have seen happening today, Is s/w is weaker down south so its getting further east before its starting to be influenced by the northern stream and then a late phase at this lat up here and NE Maine and the Maritimes get clocked, Earlier runs had it stronger down south tracking further north then getting some interaction with the northern stream a tic or two sooner and keeping the track over SE MA/Cape into the GOM. This is the one reason I believe this could go further southeast over the next 36-48. The Euro/UKMET catching onto that supposed NS interaction and the GFS not doing it to a stronger degree than those two deviates from the GFS tendency in that scenario. If those two models are overdoing that interaction this thing could slide 50-75 miles more SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think the sleet will save the pack. The cutter as currently modeled doesn’t bring 50 dews and it is a short lived warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I think the sleet will save the pack. The cutter as currently modeled doesn’t bring 50 dues and it is a short lived warmup. And it may never cut . Lots of bagginess in isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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