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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like Spanker in DXR and Marky thinking plain rain and 35-45. Maybe in ACY. Not CT

I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. 

I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. 

I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. 

Thank you, that answers my question. I'm 5 miles northwest of HVN.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. 

I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. 

I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. 

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19 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Da Nile ain't just a river in Egypt Jerry. :D 

It's a little warmer. As a matter of fact it's showing rain over the Tolland Massif at hr 72.

It was quite similar to 6z, about 20 miles north vs 0z with the mid levels.  I. No way, shape, or form did it move to GFS which was 150 miles NW yesterday.

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Just now, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thank you, that answers my question. I'm 5 miles northwest of HVN.

You are pretty close to ground zero for the biggest icing threat. I think anyone near or just north of the Merritt in that area should be the most concerned. Basically an area bounded HVN up to Middletown over to Waterbury and DXR. 

 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. 

Yeah there may be enough thump of non-ZR at the beginning to save it from being really bad. Some of it will probably depend too on how quickly the WCB moves east. The trend has kind of been to scoot it out eastward a bit quicker which dryslots everyone faster. Prob why the qpf numbers are falling somewhat back to more reasonable levels. 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are pretty close to ground zero for the biggest icing threat. I think anyone near or just north of the Merritt in that area should be the most concerned. Basically an area bounded HVN up to Middletown over to Waterbury and DXR. 

 

Do not want this. Send the ice to Tolland.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. 

I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. 

Hello. Just wanted to say thank you and to the others who really do add amazing input to this forum. I have not had a chance to really look at all the models in the HVN area. I work as a paramedic for AMR in New Haven and will be working this weekend. Just wanted to know what you think the impacts will be, start time and when the most intense part of storm will be. I appreciate it.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

12z Euro looks a lot more realistic.  The widespread 2" QPF in like 18 hours wasn't happening without closed mid levels advecting Atlantic moisture into the fray and slowing it down.  

The EURO looked more like a SWFE on crack but much more realistic with widespread 1-1.5" QPF.

TWC  maps are going to end up being off by like 50%.  The media sensational BS dries me crazy .

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17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. 

Rainfall rate may also preclude it from getting out of hand. If it's anything more than light intensity, most of what falls will go down storm drains as accretion becomes much less efficient.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'm reading that correctly, it's showing BOS getting same or greater than AQW and ORE.  I must be reading it wrong.

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think it can emphasized enough that this is not a classic in-situ or "eroding" CAD situation. This is actually being actively fed by pure arctic dewpoints from the north and northwest ageostrophically. This is not like a lot of other storms in that sense. 

Typically a high in this position keeps us all snow...so we don't really pay attention to how the CAD is working when we're getting wite to wire heavy snowfall. But I can already see a lot of people being surprised come Sunday wen their temps aren't rising anywhere near what they thought. 

Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow?

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow?

No. The ratios are almost entirely driven by snow growth. If the lift is in the SGZ, then the ratios will be high. If not, then It's prob 10 to 1 baking powder. 

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm reading that correctly, it's showing BOS getting same or greater than AQW and ORE.  I must be reading it wrong.

Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow?

The max snow number is 8.  So if the model says BOS is getting 8 and ORE 18, both will have 8.

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I wonder if any of the NWS would put out an ice storm warning?  Probably pretty hard to do since the area is hard to exactly pinpoint.  If it was a stalled front with wave after wave traversing the same area I guess it would be much easier to do.  Winter Storm Warning to Joe public would cover anything frozen.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

I wonder if any of the NWS would put out an ice storm warning?  Probably pretty hard to do since the area is hard to exactly pinpoint.  If it was a stalled front with wave after wave traversing the same area I guess it would be much easier to do.  Winter Storm Warning to Joe public would cover anything frozen.

Gotta have high confidence in half an inch of ice and I don't think you can say that anywhere...esp at this time lead. 

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