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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

At 84z, the GFS has the low on top of Kevin's dome.

Who knows what is going on with the GFS. With that said,  it is an interesting depiction at 84.

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Yeah BOX looks reasonable. Lots of SN and IP even to the NH border. Definitely looks like a nasty ZR threat more central and srn CT I think, esp maybe HVN west. Longitude will help.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The box from HubbDave to Hippy/MPM to Mitch to Dendrite...that's your jackpot on all guidance.

We act surprised 

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

FV3 still putting down 2 or more inches across much of MA/RI, and CT.

GFS a bit more generous with 2.5" from an ORH/RI points east.

Toss any gfs family. Nam more reliable and it is tamer with qpf.

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thoughts on ZR/ sleet in SNE?

On the table for sure, but the ingredients are so mesoscale in nature that we can’t say much beyond there is potential for someone to get a V-day 2007-like scalping, or some bigger ice totals. 

I’m leaning sleet given the cold air depth, but there will be freezing rain somewhere in there too.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We act surprised 

Pickles told me it would be up here :(.  

We knew how this works out with cold air mass and unphased system.  Head south young man.

  • Haha 1

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Albany finally gets big snows.

I think they've been sneaking some big ones in the past few years.  Gone are the 2011-2015 type droughts.

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Aside from the GFS, most of the guidance has been keeping the big icing threat down to southern half of CT...perhaps parts of RI and even western interior SE MA could get it on the ice if the sfc CF stays pinned far enough south there. But that's not gonna be resolved for at least another 36 hours most likely. 

The Arctic airmass is impressive so I won't be surprised at snow hanging tough for quite a while in areas that eventually get scalped. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Aside from the GFS, most of the guidance has been keeping the big icing threat down to southern half of CT...perhaps parts of RI and even western interior SE MA could get it on the ice if the sfc CF stays pinned far enough south there. But that's not gonna be resolved for at least another 36 hours most likely. 

The Arctic airmass is impressive so I won't be surprised at snow hanging tough for quite a while in areas that eventually get scalped. 

Steve furiously trying to start his generator while Kevin hustles out to try and get his truck in the garage to protect it's finish.

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58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's actually the shortwave I marked here. You can see a secondary WCB forming just to its east.

2019-01-17_5-55-29_zpsfyqcjudb.jpg\

 

This shortwave is the one that moves downstream and forces the lee cyclone.

Yes exactly, thats the one that will force the lee cyclone once east of the Rockies (near Texas I think?)

 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Aside from the GFS, most of the guidance has been keeping the big icing threat down to southern half of CT...perhaps parts of RI and even western interior SE MA could get it on the ice if the sfc CF stays pinned far enough south there. But that's not gonna be resolved for at least another 36 hours most likely. 

The Arctic airmass is impressive so I won't be surprised at snow hanging tough for quite a while in areas that eventually get scalped. 

This really does remind me somewhat of some sort of hybrid between Jan 94 and VD 2007 and St Paddy's Day 2007 lol

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Steve furiously trying to start his generator while Kevin hustles out to try and get his truck in the garage to protect it's finish.

Lol cept if he leaves it covered in snow. Thinking scalpers here like Scoots said New Haven area. Deep cold to almost the coast

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah BOX looks reasonable. Lots of SN and IP even to the NH border. Definitely looks like a nasty ZR threat more central and srn CT I think, esp maybe HVN west. Longitude will help.

What’ are you thinking for the Duxbury Plymouth area?

Trying to figure out whether I’ll miss the game working.

Some white then wet?

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