weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The back end significant thump after the sleet seems to be a growing euro feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: The back end significant thump after the sleet seems to be a growing euro feature Yup--that'll help the eastern areas especially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Seemed like the 6z euro was a bit warmer, but maybe faster too. Could be a ton of sleet in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol cept if he leaves it covered in snow. Thinking scalpers here like Scoots said New Haven area. Deep cold to almost the coast Not liking my location here at the foot of the valley. Surface cold will be locked while a thicker warm layer is overhead. Could get ugly if we have 5 or 6 inches of snow before the ice sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Definitely warmer aloft on the 6z euro. Pellets to NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What’ are you thinking for the Duxbury Plymouth area? Trying to figure out whether I’ll miss the game working. Some white then wet? A few inches..maybe 4-5 in DUX. Then heavy rain and flash freeze to IP/ZR/SN after like 3-4pm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely warmer aloft on the 6z euro. Pellets to NH. I noticed that. I couldn’t tell whether it was a function of timing but I think the sleet is 20 miles further north at 6Z. What are your run thoughts on the strong back end dump euro is depicting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I noticed that. I couldn’t tell whether it was a function of timing but I think the sleet is 20 miles further north at 6Z. What are your run thoughts on the strong back end dump euro is depicting ? Dump of IP? It's still a torch aloft even as the low passes. I do worry about the srn vort perhaps ticking this north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's too bad this thing can't slow down a bit; I think it's moving a bit too fast to become a huge event. We've got a mecs in any case. Of course in the winter we've had so far......this is enormous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Dump of IP? It's still a torch aloft even as the low passes. I do worry about the srn vort perhaps ticking this north. Mid levels start crashing..I think we’d flash back to snow for a few hour hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dump of IP? It's still a torch aloft even as the low passes. I do worry about the srn vort perhaps ticking this north. I think the SJ means "Scooter Judgement" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Mid levels start crashing..I think we’d flash back to snow for a few hour hours at least. Yeah probably some to end it, agree. But it will take a little time to cool 850. Starting to think it may be a paint feeler for awhile near the pike and just north. Quite the plethora of ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Less freezing rain more sleet in Worcester area? Snow+ to snow/sleet+ to sleet+back to snow for a few hours as the the temp drops like a rock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah probably some to end it, agree. But it will take a little time to cool 850. Starting to think it may be a paint feeler for awhile near the pike and just north. Quite the plethora of ptypes. Man pack when it all ends thanks to cold low levels and plenty of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah probably some to end it, agree. But it will take a little time to cool 850. Starting to think it may be a paint feeler for awhile near the pike and just north. Quite the plethora of ptypes. what is a paint feeler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seemed like the 6z euro was a bit warmer, but maybe faster too. Could be a ton of sleet in BOS. Yeah, 6-12" seems like an easy out. large range. Could realistically be 3-6", and not a far shot from the 1-3" I initially suggested. A number right near 6" would be my guess right now, so I guess 4-8" BOS would be my call. It really does look like a crap ton of sleet. It's going to take time to recover and flip to snow. It's torched in the mid levels. Even if cold air swings through the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: what is a paint feeler? When a weenie overloads and sticks it's tongue on every surface around them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z Euro has full fledged ice storm conditions with grid issues south of Pike CT / RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A few inches..maybe 4-5 in DUX. Then heavy rain and flash freeze to IP/ZR/SN after like 3-4pm I think. Sounds like Brett's going to be sanding/salting and listening to Zo on the radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not liking my location here at the foot of the valley. Surface cold will be locked while a thicker warm layer is overhead. Could get ugly if we have 5 or 6 inches of snow before the ice sets in. Concerning around these parts. We hope it’s mostly sleet, only saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is on the NWS site now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: If you look at a Wilks 2006 reliability diagram for QPF you'll see that all models tend to have a wet bias for QPF. They too often are too wet. I'm trying to find a specific North American diagram with recent stats, but no luck. For Europe the EPS is something like 80% of the forecasts for heavy QPF, it actually occurs about 50% of the time. I suspect North America would be no different in that regard. That's an interesting metric ...for me anyway.. .Considering that I've mentioned that with this and other lead up scenarios in the past, that it seems the models will over due the QPF ... particularly in these open wave scenario... Still, there's enough counterpoint data to suggest this may just be a rarer phenomenon like y'all been saying - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 MPM and Ray dream map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like they lined it up with Albany and Grey a little more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Concerning around these parts. We hope it’s mostly sleet, only saving grace. Yeah man, I will gladly welcome the sound of pinging this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 hours ago, Greg said: This looks more and more like a colder storm. we've been saying that all week... Is this new to you ? I know I get it... you want to see it in the actual model illustration ... I guess with the benefits of a classical education/experience in this game ... you and others will learn to one day trust the advice - of course...now is a good time for it tunnel it's way to Lake Superior just for saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Maybe I missed talk of ensembles, but the clustering south of LI is encouraging. Pretty good tug on the mean to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'd probably not get bullish on high end of those amounts given the influx of warmth aloft. Respect the tongue aloft. Unless this thing goes off ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The Euro did not phase in the main PV at all...it phased a lobe in later, which is why it croaked us. The 18z GFS phased some of the main PV, which won't happen. My blog was about this tonight. The EURO is a good way to turn this into a HECS, but not ready to sign off on that yet...that perfect degree of lobe phasing and timing needs to hold for a couple days. Too early to go ballz deep. The context of the time was the N/stream ... to which "lobes" certainly qualify... The entire PV never phases anyway... omg - heh... 'Magine that? 10 closed isohypsic lines S of LI... ?? Hey... Will will attest, I've been the biggest proponent of the less phased total evolution the whole way ... I'm just being forced to capitulate to more of it by the fact that the Euro is inside D5 as of 12z yesterday (I'm catching up and haven't seen the 00z ...), and both that run and the 00z had N/stream party crashing ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We pray that the rest of the guidance decides to take a tipple of Uncle's Absyinthe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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