January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[ATreglown]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

JI, did you hear what Bob just said? You are not allowed to use the word "disaster" anytime soon! 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, cbmclean said:

What is it that makes you feel this way?

Guidance all agrees that the AO is going negative and not just a little negative. Also, ensembles unanimously agree that higher heights and surface pressure are going to build in the nao domain. The wrench right now is the pac and western trough. Even with a -AO and *potential* -NAO, the pna and/or epo ridge build too far west so the east gets stuck in a period of above normal heights and temperatures (and crappy storm track). However, it's not common for the east to be in a shutout snow pattern with a solid -AO in place. The only time I've seen it recently was 2011-12. That winter was ruined because a huge vortex set up over AK and literally cooked the conus. Not the same as what seems to want to prevent us from getting into a decent pattern where we at least have a chance. That's my logic in a nutshell. 

Even if the Pac does jack things up I believe it will be shortlived. I could be totally wrong but I have a thesis and not blind hope. 

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What is it that makes you feel this way?

His girl. his girl. HIS GIRL!!! 

(sorry, couldn't resist, lol)

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

I hope your right. But my doubts are tied to the fact the only thing the guidance has been wrong about is the NAO and slightly too Far East with the epo ridge. Those 2 kill our snow chances but other than that the general longwave pattern hasn’t been way off. And this isn’t super long range anymore. While everyone has been taking comfort in “it’s day 15” it’s actually been getting worse and moving up. The pattern goes up complete crap day 8/9 now. It’s bevoming more clear the way we wanted out better looks too as it comes closer. They of course degraded as real time approached. This look isn’t. 

[Ji]

To me winter is over....by the time we recover from this day 8-10 disaster...its prob like feb 20 and I start losing interest quickly

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

To me winter is over....by the time we recover from this day 8-10 disaster...its prob like feb 20 and I start losing interest quickly

No doubt we could score a fluke hit over the next 8 weeks still but in terms of a 'sustained' grand finale most are hoping for, we've likely already played our best hand and cashed out. I understand ir's a different look now than back in Dec but the drivers are still the same this year. IF (still an 'if') the PAC goes to crap next week it very likely isnt going to just flip right back to a good look. That's not what I'm seeing anyway. And if recent past history is any indication it could take several weeks for the better PAC pattern to reload. There is just as good a chance that we will be ending winter early as there is we get a return to a sustained solid cold wintry pattern that that the CFS and weeklies continue teasing with. 

[Ji]

Yea...we could have a decent feb 15 to early March but after pD weekend...my winter excitement goes from a 10 to a 5. This distaster at day10 is a killer because we arnt scoring anything noteworthy before then. A good winter is not happening. Now its trying to get one event to salvage something

[Ji]

We are going to pay dearly for our prolonged high amplitude mjo 5 and 6

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea...we could have a decent feb 15 to early March but after pD weekend...my winter excitement goes from a 10 to a 5. This distaster at day10 is a killer because we arnt scoring anything noteworthy before then. A good winter is not happening. Now its trying to get one event to salvage 

I hope we can score at least some flooding if spring starts in 10 days lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I hope we can score at least some flooding if spring starts in 10 days lol

Severe season will probably be on steroids this year. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

but this winter has been a disaster already, glad you guys in DC got your 10"+ snowstorm and that the South got theirs in early December, we had one 4-6" snowstorm on Nov 15 that changed to rain and nada since lol.

It's time to start considering it though- because our TV Mets as well as TWC LR Mets have been talking about Pac air flooding the CONUS after SB weekend.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Severe season will probably be on steroids this year. 

I'd like a warm and dry Spring followed by a hot and dry summer and then we can have a 1966-67 winter next year lol.

Because 1965-66 was being used as an analog for this winter, so getting Summer 1966 followed by a great winter like 1966-67 would be nice.

 

[blizzardmeiser]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I hope we can score at least some flooding if spring starts in 10 days lol

Excellent- we could really use the rain...

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

We are going to pay dearly for our prolonged high amplitude mjo 5 and 6

MJO has been a persistent thorn, but the Nino essentially failed- it's an undefined blob of warmish sst, and we have seen little to no atmospheric response.

Chuck isn't completely wrong with his Nina posts, lol.

I will take winter weather when I can get it though. If we have a bad week heading into mid Feb, so be it. There will still be chances going forward.

[WinterWxLuvr]

MJO forecasts have been completely unreliable IMO. I have watched them consistently and they seem to always be 4 to 5 days of progress and then a stall or turn toward the COD. That turn doesn’t usually happen and then it keeps progressing through the stage. If the first good stage is 8, then we will probably be there in a week.

[HighStakes]

I may do a post later today about winters that started either awful or mediocre and ended up decent to very good. We still can pull off a very solid 2-4 week period. There are quite a few examples. Granted I know even if it snows a lot late in season how difficult it is to sustain snow cover and deep winter feel ( 2015 aside ) and many of you will point that out again. 

[frd]

 

Finally but will it last 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation-6.35

 

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Finally but will it last 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation-6.35

 

Not sure if that look will continue but if it does and we can get mjo to phase 8 in a week or so we'll be in business fast and models will respond. That period in the 8-15 that doesn't look so great will change quickly. Similar to what happened before the snowstorm 2 weeks ago. 

[poolz1]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Finally but will it last 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation-6.35

 

Both Ens and ops look to turn the SOI neg on a consistent basis after D10ish.  Op runs actually have what would be some pretty robust negatives and ens agree.

Maybe this is signaling a move toward phase 8 in the LR.

[frd]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

Not sure if that look will continue but if it does and we can get mjo to phase 8 in a week or so we'll be in business fast and models will respond. That period in the 8-15 that doesn't look so great will change quickly. Similar to what happened before the snowstorm 2 weeks ago. 

I hope so,  if we can just lock into a -SOI for a while its money. 

[frd]

Already spoke about this,  but more so for a visual .

 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

We are going to pay dearly for our prolonged high amplitude mjo 5 and 6

That has been the key to what’s gone wrong to this point. It’s not as simple as “mjo”. But the mjo recycling through high amp warm phases is simply indicative of the failure of the nino this year. The sst is totally irrelevant because there has been no atmospheric response. The only reason a nino helps is it typically muted convection in the maritime region and enhances it further east in the Pacific Ocean. That places forcing in the right places for us to get a favorable longwave alignment. But that hasn’t happened. If you had told me in November that the Soi would be positive most of the time and the mjo would take 2 record tours through phases 5/6 I would have told you we’re in big trouble. That’s not a nino. 

It could still flip. But that won’t change what has happened to this point. Almost everyone got the tropical forcing wrong. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

MJO has been a persistent thorn, but the Nino essentially failed- it's an undefined blob of warmish sst, and we have seen little to no atmospheric response.

Chuck isn't completely wrong with his Nina posts, lol.

I will take winter weather when I can get it though. If we have a bad week heading into mid Feb, so be it. There will still be chances going forward.

The nino fail and the mjo problem are the same thing. A nino mutes the mjo. It’s highly unlikely we would have had the mjo issues had a real nino emerged. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Not sure if that look will continue but if it does and we can get mjo to phase 8 in a week or so we'll be in business fast and models will respond. That period in the 8-15 that doesn't look so great will change quickly. Similar to what happened before the snowstorm 2 weeks ago. 

This I agree with and it’s our last best hope. As I said to bob last night the guidance been messing up the tropical forcing and it’s impact all winter.  If we get that right things could flip fast right on a dime. But my faith in getting it right is questionable. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Both Ens and ops look to turn the SOI neg on a consistent basis after D10ish.  Op runs actually have what would be some pretty robust negatives and ens agree.

Maybe this is signaling a move toward phase 8 in the LR.

That is exactly the soi look we want. Subsinance near the maritime continent and lower pressures in the central pac.  But last time it showed that about 2 weeks ago it was a head fake and the pattern quickly reverted to the base state all winter. So that is an encouraging sign but I want to see it progressing closer before I feel warm and cozy about it. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The nino fail and the mjo problem are the same thing. A nino mutes the mjo. It’s highly unlikely we would have had the mjo issues had a real nino emerged. 

That was the basic point I was trying to make- if the Nino was legit, the MJO would not likely be as strong, but with near neutral ENSO conditions, the active MJO is 'swamping' it and mitigating any significant 'Nino like' atmospheric response.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

That was the basic point I was trying to make- if the Nino was legit, the MJO would not likely be as strong, but with near neutral ENSO conditions, the active MJO is 'swamping' it and mitigating any significant 'Nino like' atmospheric response.

Yup...now let’s all split into two teams and one dump boiling water in the central pac and the other ice cubes all around it and fix this problem stat!!!!

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This I agree with and it’s our last best hope. As I said to bob last night the guidance been messing up the tropical forcing and it’s impact all winter.  If we get that right things could flip fast right on a dime. But my faith in getting it right is questionable. 

MJO modeling is changing again in regards to the phase and amplitude this morning, no surprises there. 

Also, renewed confidence in a severe drop in the AO this morning. Almost complete agreement with a -4 SD drop or greater. 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

MJO modeling is changing again in regards to the phase and amplitude this morning, no surprises there. 

Also, renewed confidence in a severe drop in the AO this morning. Almost complete agreement with a -4 SD drop or greater. 

 

 

 

This is what I was talking about in my post last night. That is a severely negative AO. And look at this NAO forecast. It doesnt make sense to me. I cant ever remember a time with a positive nao with the ao tanked like that?

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what I was talking about in my post last night. That is a severely negative AO. And look at this NAO forecast. It doesnt make sense to me. I cant ever remember a time with a positive nao with the ao tanked like that?

My god the NAO is almost never negative. Literally always positive except for a few days here and there since Oct.