poolz1 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Cherry picked LR op panel but....if you loop that last few runs of the FV3 it carries the same theme and maybe the way out. A new, what will be Aleutian low, rotates down and kicks the Gulf of AK ridge poleward. The 18z run connects the west based block and this ridge. Rolling this forward you can see how quick the PNA ridge will pop... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So now the pna is trying to play bad guy, smh Always somethin'! But long shutdowns precede snow...I'm tryin' to hang onto that...lol I'd much rather fight a -pna versus a +ao or +epo. Our area is actually doing pretty good with our chance to success ratio. We've really only had 4 real chances this year and 3 of them produced. That's not that common. Vast majority of the time when we get 4 chances only 1 will produce. Has the feel that if things get right and chances happen on the regular we'll go on a heater. Only two weeks away... for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'd much rather fight a -pna versus a +ao or +epo. Our area is actually doing pretty good with our chance to success ratio. We've really only had 4 real chances this year and 3 of them produced. That's not that common. Vast majority of the time when we get 4 chances only 1 will produce. Has the feel that if things get right and chances happen on the regular we'll go on a heater. Only two weeks away... for now Bob Chill time...lol But this time, your two week label is gonna HAVE to have legs--no more time for anymore two week stints! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Getting close to the -pna being a lock. I wish it could go "poof" as easily as did the modeled -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Getting close to the -pna being a lock. All global ens look similar with that. I'll have no problem dealing with a relax/-pna as long as I can see the end of it and it's not getting pushed out in time. So we can indeed see the end of it in the panel you just showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 @poolz1 Good fv3 run even before uber fantasy land. Nice cad signal after the torch early next week. Crappy storm track for snow. I'd be totally good with ice or mix. Anything but a shutout. Can't say for sure yet but we appear to be heading for a shutout pattern in a week to 10 days. Hopefully it's short so we can enjoy the mild temps while watching a good patttern move up in time. The shutout pattern in Dec/early Jan really sucked. No hope from d1 through d15 will discourage even the most optimistic weenies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: So we can indeed see the end of it in the panel you just showed? It's still a neg pna but much better than the full latitude trough we're seeing. If (mt everest sized if) the ao/nao go as negative as that ens mean then we don't want a towering +pna. Would be congrats Raleigh. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rx18z gefs actually looks pretty good at the end. Solid confluence/compressed flow with low heights near and east of 50/50. Getting close to the -pna being a lock. All global ens look similar with that. I'll have no problem dealing with a relax/-pna as long as I can see the end of it and it's not getting pushed out in time. I can extrapolate good things beyon this panel. I have 4 weeks of good climo to go at this point and you still have 6. Two 1' storms and a couple moderate ones and you knock dowm climo. That’s a good solid big snowstorm look. Not cold. But that’s the kind of look where it’s 45-50 degrees for days and then boom an h5 low gets forced under us and it’s 32 and sh!tting snow. I can work with that. In general the gfs products including the fv3 are spitting out good looks regularly now. It’s all tied to their idea of better blocking. Remove that NAO block from the GEFS panel above and it would be garbage. The euro after days of utter crap had a run today that may have been a first blink. The mean looked crappy but i saw signs there was some divergence in there. The snow mean in the long range ticked up a slightly too. Hopefully it was a baby step towards the gfs idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a good solid big snowstorm look. Not cold. But that’s the kind of look where it’s 45-50 degrees for days and then boom an h5 low gets forced under us and it’s 32 and sh!tting snow. I can work with that. In general the gfs products including the fv3 are spitting out good looks regularly now. It’s all tied to their idea of better blocking. Remove that NAO block from the GEFS panel above and it would be garbage. The euro after days of utter crap had a run today that may have been a first blink. The mean looked crappy but i saw signs there was some divergence in there. The snow mean in the long range ticked up a slightly too. Hopefully it was a baby step towards the gfs idea. If you wouldn't mind...could you circle where the neg nao is on that panel? I still don't know what it looks like, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If you wouldn't mind...could you circle where the neg nao is on that panel? I still don't know what it looks like, lol From the link below: “The NAO consists of a north-south dipole of anomalies, with one center located over Greenland and the other center of opposite sign spanning the central latitudes of the North Atlantic between 35�N and 40�N.“ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Wow, what a -PNA on 18z GFS ensembles. We are probably going straight to La Nina, at least for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @poolz1 Good fv3 run even before uber fantasy land. Nice cad signal after the torch early next week. Crappy storm track for snow. I'd be totally good with ice or mix. Anything but a shutout. Can't say for sure yet but we appear to be heading for a shutout pattern in a week to 10 days. Hopefully it's short so we can enjoy the mild temps while watching a good patttern move up in time. The shutout pattern in Dec/early Jan really sucked. No hope from d1 through d15 will discourage even the most optimistic weenies Yea...some sort of shutout seems to be in the making. Like you said, somewhere in that D8-12 range. Hoping as we get closer it ends up being a 2-4 day transient ridge that traverses the CONUS. I wont lie...I am extremely discouraged losing any time in Feb to a shutout...but, what are you going to do? I'll keep looking down the road and tracking...until the smallmouth start to wake up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd much rather fight a -pna versus a +ao or +epo. Our area is actually doing pretty good with our chance to success ratio. We've really only had 4 real chances this year and 3 of them produced. That's not that common. Vast majority of the time when we get 4 chances only 1 will produce. Has the feel that if things get right and chances happen on the regular we'll go on a heater. Only two weeks away... for now Yeah, but the western Atlantic ridge is always amped.. it's basically 0 chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If you wouldn't mind...could you circle where the neg nao is on that panel? I still don't know what it looks like, lol Red around Greenland with blue south of it is the look you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. I saw “some” positive in the eps today. The ridge getting cut down some to our north is a sign some members are trying to cut the jet under the block. The temps aren’t that warm and the mslp plots are good with low pressure to our south and high to the north. The one feature that based on anomalies is likely dead locked in is the epo ridge and it’s not in a good spot absent NAO blocking. So my guess is there is more divergence with runs that lack the adequate blocking torching the east and creating the mean ridge and runs with better blocking having more trough into the east. That would create that mean look. It wasn’t a good run but I thought a baby step from the complete dumpster fire of the last few eps runs. I did notice that. I made a post this morning after the 0z run regarding disagreement among the members, with some showing cold pressing into our region by late in the run. Same with the 12z run, but even more so. You can see the indication of a 50-50 low under the +heights over Greenland. I suspect this will be a pretty brief warm up, but for now it seems likely there will be one, maybe lasting 4-5 days. Overall though the EPS isn't advertising the really good west-based blocking we are seeing on the GEFS and CFS. Its there, just not as impressive. I will feel more confident a legit -NAO is on the way when the EPS throws up some of those looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a good solid big snowstorm look. Not cold. But that’s the kind of look where it’s 45-50 degrees for days and then boom an h5 low gets forced under us and it’s 32 and sh!tting snow. I can work with that. In general the gfs products including the fv3 are spitting out good looks regularly now. It’s all tied to their idea of better blocking. Remove that NAO block from the GEFS panel above and it would be garbage. The euro after days of utter crap had a run today that may have been a first blink. The mean looked crappy but i saw signs there was some divergence in there. The snow mean in the long range ticked up a slightly too. Hopefully it was a baby step towards the gfs idea. 18z gefs had some nice tracks and good hits d10-15. Too far away to dig in but seeing that tells me a cluster of ensemble members are saying we *might* not be in a shutout for along after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Wow, what a -PNA on 18z GFS ensembles. We are probably going straight to La Nina, at least for the next month. Ok are you aware that La Niña and El Niño are sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central and east pacific and not measured by the pna or....never mind. Shut up Chuck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok are you aware that La Niña and El Niño are sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central and east pacific and not measured by the pna or....never mind. Shut up Chuck. Nina -----> -PNA -PNA -----> Nina -PNA <-----> Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just looked at the 18z gefs and 12z eps meteos. About a third of the eps and half the gefs show at least some snowfall around and after the 7th. I've seen far worse ensemble output with crappy h5 mean panels. Only takeaway worth mentioning is there's definitely not unanimous agreement with an extended shutout pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Nina -----> -PNA -PNA -----> Nina -PNA <-----> Nina The ridging always trends when pna epo and hemispheric energies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Just looked at the 18z gefs and 12z eps meteos. About a third of the eps and half the gefs show at least some snowfall around and after the 7th. I've seen far worse ensemble output with crappy h5 mean panels. Only takeaway worth mentioning is there's definitely not unanimous agreement with an extended shutout pattern. How you guys have the stamina to continue analyzing stuff day after day amazes me, especially in a frustrating winter like this one. I don't do anything but read your posts and the emotional roller coaster of the long range models has me exhausted. It must truly be a labor of love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 This is gfs at 198 as we go from Nino to nina chuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 March can be a great equalizer. March is probably the month with the greatest disparity between our two snowfall averages. A lot of ~6” DC area March snowfalls were 15”+ storms up here. And a lot of sloppy insignificant DC ones were 6”+ up here. But while I don’t mind March saves like some on here that seem to be unrealistically picky about when and how it snows, that doesn’t mean I want to live dangerously like that every year. March snow like November snow. It doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 looks like we are going to Punt the first week of Feb but i was encouraged by the EPS that maybe the month is salvagale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like we are going to Punt the first week of Feb but i was encouraged by the EPS that maybe the month is salvagale If we go back to November everytime the mjo was NOT in phase 4-7 we were cold with snow chances. Unfortunately the mjo has spent 80% of winter in warm phases and ape amplitude just dominating any other weaker pattern influencers. But it’s likely based on the evidence at hand that the base state absent destructive interference from the mjo is pretty good. So if, big if, we get the mjo to chill the F out soon we likely will flip to an eastern trough. Whether that is transient or longer term probably depends on if the mjo stays in cold phases (unlikely, warm is probably the mjo default this year) or the NAO finally establishes true blocking. That might be more possible that a short term helpful mjo could allow blocking to establish and the block could then offset the mjo when it goes to crap again. We will see. Clocks ticking though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: looks like we are going to Punt the first week of Feb but i was encouraged by the EPS that maybe the month is salvagale 8 hours ago, Ji said: 19 hours ago, psuhoffman said: March can be a great equalizer. March is probably the month with the greatest disparity between our two snowfall averages. A lot of ~6” DC area March snowfalls were 15”+ storms up here. And a lot of sloppy insignificant DC ones were 6”+ up here. But while I don’t mind March saves like some on here that seem to be unrealistically picky about when and how it snows, that doesn’t mean I want to live dangerously like that every year. March snow like November snow. It doesn't count March snow is awesome. Just when you think Winter is over, we get a surprise. Also, Fairfax County schools have no days off in March so I’m counting on snow to linger this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run. Yes for sure but gefs has a mega mjo going into phase 8. Eps still sucks but made strides imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: March snow is awesome. Just when you think Winter is over, we get a surprise. Also, Fairfax County schools have no days off in March so I’m counting on snow to linger this year. Was hoping for a great March this year, but not really sure at this point. I think you can make the point that the beginning of the March might be good, but if the MJO once again goes into the warmer phases we lose the Pac in the process. But, way too early to speculate on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run. Yes for sure but gefs has a mega mjo going into phase 8. Eps still sucks but made strides imo EPS is incrementally improving. It still shows weaker blocking though, and that wont get it done. If it's currently advertised look/progression is correct, we waste more prime snow climo days. I will hug the GEFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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