January 2019 Discussion II

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position.  Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer.  Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side.

this is a thread the needle pattern without a -NAO and the ridge out west not quite in the right position

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was kind of a weird anafront look...would prob drop a couple inches behind the front...no SWFE as the main low is way too far NW. Euro and its ensembles show more potential for an actual SWFE.

 

 

It'll morph into either a SWFE or a phase job with the PV lobe.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

this is a thread the needle pattern without a -NAO and the ridge out west not quite in the right position

 

Yes now if everyone got on board from ASH south , there would be peace lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't 1993-94 somewhat like this- a favorable Pac but the Atlantic side never really got good?

I think Will believes the severe Arctic chill that winter was at least partially the result of Pinatubo lol.

 

Haven't a clue.  I was 19 year old in College and didn't know a thing about weather other then the day to day stuff.

[#NoPoles]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow...

It's dead for SNE...CNE has some chances left, but this is a NNE winter, and even NNE cant escape the cutters. PF just reported the snow stake at 80inches, and today happens and knocks winter off its pedestal....again...

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow...

[#NoPoles]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Holy hell, look at that wall of water on radar...it's like Stephen King's The Langoliers, except it is erasing all traces of winter

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I figure it this way. I live in Southern New England in an area that sometimes tries to play central New England. Which means I got winter is like these fairly often. Sometimes they're much worse 2011/2012. Sometimes something fantastic happens February 2015, December 1970, and other occasions. I would much rather live further North with very snowy Winters and much cooler Summers. Thinking maybe Pittsburg New Hampshire or Caribou Maine. That's if I stay in the states. LOL. It doesn't look like the end of the world right now. That's probably the best we can say and maybe even a little better than that. Great thing about weather is you've just wait and see.

A neighbor has a place in Pittsburg and at one time I had family in Caribou. Both are great for winter weather. Essentially winter can last from Oct-May in both locations. Pittsburg is an outpost of sorts. Caribou is a small city. In Pittsburg it is all about enjoying the quiet and outdoor activities. It certainly helps if you like to hunt,fish, hike, and participate in winter sports. There is a lot more to do in Caribou than there is in Pittsburg. A lot depends on your personality and interests. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Holy hell, look at that wall of water on radar...it's like Stephen King's The Langoliers, except it is erasing all traces of winter

 Congrats on 8" this month.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nice to see the PNA get better, Pacific pattern is improving.  If the NAO stays like that we might have something like a 93-94 pattern.  2002-03 was also snowy with a pos NAO, but I wouldn't go there that el nino was far stronger than this one.

With the brutally cold arctic air, this does remind me of 1993-94 somewhat, but milder than that.

Hopefully it works out. 

I would HATE to have to say FIVE below average snowfall winters this century!

[ORH_wxman]

Clown range NAM is trying to revive the Sunday threat....northern stream getting really amplified there. Not that I believe the clown range NAM, but some of the globals actually werent' that far off from doing something with it.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clown range NAM is trying to revive the Sunday threat....northern stream getting really amplified there. Not that I believe the clown range NAM, but some of the globals actually werent' that far off from doing something with it.

sometimes NAM leads with these little things.

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't 1993-94 somewhat like this- a favorable Pac but the Atlantic side never really got good?

I think Will believes the severe Arctic chill that winter was at least partially the result of Pinatubo lol.

 

IIRC, global temps were depressed a bit for almost 2 years after the eruption.  Jan. 1994 remains the coldest month on record at CAR and Ft. Kent.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

sometimes NAM leads with these little things.

Only thing is it’s like nam projected at 100 hrs (Monday am)

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

sometimes NAM leads with these little things.

Especially since it’s the first guidance you see at 12z at this range....

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

It's dead for SNE...CNE has some chances left, but this is a NNE winter, and even NNE cant escape the cutters. PF just reported the snow stake at 80inches, and today happens and knocks winter off its pedestal....again...

Silly comment.

[Lava Rock]

GYX:

Have adjusted QPF a bit, while high res guidance continues to
indicate the potential for some very heavy rainfall in
association with a fine line as the front moves through this
afternoon feel the overall average rainfall will be less and
have kept QPF in line with this.

That sounds better, but probably means a tenth or two less.

[SnowHole413]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Silly comment.

On January 24th haha

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Powderboy413 said:

On January 24th haha

Of course it’s silly

but i mean when you have seen 15” of rain and not even 5% of that has converted to Frozen and your about to see another 1.5” rain , that can be excused 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Of course it’s silly

but i mean when you have seen 15” of rain and not even 5% of that has converted to Frozen and your about to see another 1.5” rain , that can be excused 

No one excused it...I think every one here thinks that this winter has sucked to date, and been unbelievably frustrating.

[dryslot]

Top 5 for CAR so Far in JAN, And #1 overall so far as of 01/22 exceeding 07/08.

720
NOUS41 KCAR 230054
PNSCAR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-231300-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
754 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The recent heavy snowfall across northern Maine has produced snow
depths that range from 29 to 42 inches across far northern Maine.
There is 6.4 to 8.4 inches of water contained within that heavy
snowpack. This will be one of many important factors that we will
be continuing to closely monitor this winter and as we approach
the spring break-up.

The recent heavy snowfall has caused a lot of snow to accumulate
on many roofs, and this may pose a concern where the snow has
drifted, and in some spots can be several feet deep. If the snow
accumulation on a roof is in excess of building design it can pose
a hazard and buildings can become vulnerable to structural
failure and possible collapse.

To give some more perspective, a total of 47.4 inches of snow has
been observed at Caribou so far this January, which is the most
ever observed during the month of January since weather records
began in 1939. The old January record of 44.5 inches was
established in January 1994.

This January now ranks as the 5th snowiest month ever at Caribou.
Here are the top 5:

1. 59.9 inches, December 1972
2. 54.5 inches, December 2007
3. 49.4 inches, December 1954
4. 47.7 inches February 2008
5. 47.4 inches, January 2019*

* Through January 22, 2019.

Through January 22, 2019, a seasonal total of 99.2 inches of snow
has been observed this winter. This surpasses the previous record
of 96.2 inches during the winter of 2007-2008 (through January
22, 2008). The winter of 2007-2008 ended up being the snowiest on
record at Caribou with a total of 197.8 inches, and the heavy snow
that winter was one factor that combined with heavy rains and warm
up in April that caused severe flooding in parts of Aroostook and
Piscataquis Counties. While it is still too soon to say that the
snowfall will necessarily lead to flooding in the spring, we will
continue to closely monitor the situation.

$$

CB

[metagraphica]

Most years in this decade have been above to well above normal IMBY.  Gotta figure we're gonna have a well below normal year eventually.  This may be it.   7.3 inches to date (5.25" of that in Nov.)

Average for my town is about 32"

2010-11  53.5"

2011-12  21.05"

2012-13  52"

2013-14  57.5"

2014-15  86.65"

2015-16  27.5"

2016-17  50.55"

2017-18  66.95"

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one excused it...I think every one here thinks that this winter has sucked to date, and been unbelievably frustrating.

The incredibly annoying thing is it has been so active and we just need a little more favorable Atlantic or Pacific to be at Normal .

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have an extremely hard time buying wall-wall void of NAO during a weak el nino....especially given that it hasn't been a ++AO furnace to date. The pattern has been pedestrian...but the sensible result has been horrendous.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A neighbor has a place in Pittsburg and at one time I had family in Caribou. Both are great for winter weather. Essentially winter can last from Oct-May in both locations. Pittsburg is an outpost of sorts. Caribou is a small city. In Pittsburg it is all about enjoying the quiet and outdoor activities. It certainly helps if you like to hunt,fish, hike, and participate in winter sports. There is a lot more to do in Caribou than there is in Pittsburg. A lot depends on your personality and interests. 

One really great thing I've heard about Caribou is that it's the allergy-free capital of the US lol, having a low level of pollen is great for those of us who are seasonal allergy sufferers.

Last Spring was the worst one I've ever experienced in longevity and intensity.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have an extremely hard time buying wall-wall void of NAO during a weak el nino....especially given that it hasn't been a ++AO furnace to date. The pattern has been pedestrian...but the sensible result has been horrendous.

It's very rare to have such a disconnect if the forecast bears out- the AO tanking and the NAO still staying positive?  That's extremely rare.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The incredibly annoying thing is it has been so active and we just need a little more favorable Atlantic or Pacific to be at Normal .

Obnoxiously maddening....its sucked. But the fact that its been so frustrating, ironically enough, is a sign that there is hope. This isn't one of those awful el nino events....we just haven't had any sensible fruit yet.

And again....we are 4 days into the favored period, have had one decent storm, and another possible early next week.

Perspective-

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The incredibly annoying thing is it has been so active and we just need a little more favorable Atlantic or Pacific to be at Normal .

add to that there's been no shortage of cold air AND the south and southern Midatlantic has been hit with major winter storms TWICE already.

 

[weathafella]

Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Top 5 for CAR so Far in JAN, And #1 overall so far as of 01/22 exceeding 07/08.

720
NOUS41 KCAR 230054
PNSCAR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-231300-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
754 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The recent heavy snowfall across northern Maine has produced snow
depths that range from 29 to 42 inches across far northern Maine.
There is 6.4 to 8.4 inches of water contained within that heavy
snowpack. This will be one of many important factors that we will
be continuing to closely monitor this winter and as we approach
the spring break-up.

The recent heavy snowfall has caused a lot of snow to accumulate
on many roofs, and this may pose a concern where the snow has
drifted, and in some spots can be several feet deep. If the snow
accumulation on a roof is in excess of building design it can pose
a hazard and buildings can become vulnerable to structural
failure and possible collapse.

To give some more perspective, a total of 47.4 inches of snow has
been observed at Caribou so far this January, which is the most
ever observed during the month of January since weather records
began in 1939. The old January record of 44.5 inches was
established in January 1994.

This January now ranks as the 5th snowiest month ever at Caribou.
Here are the top 5:

1. 59.9 inches, December 1972
2. 54.5 inches, December 2007
3. 49.4 inches, December 1954
4. 47.7 inches February 2008
5. 47.4 inches, January 2019*

* Through January 22, 2019.

Through January 22, 2019, a seasonal total of 99.2 inches of snow
has been observed this winter. This surpasses the previous record
of 96.2 inches during the winter of 2007-2008 (through January
22, 2008). The winter of 2007-2008 ended up being the snowiest on
record at Caribou with a total of 197.8 inches, and the heavy snow
that winter was one factor that combined with heavy rains and warm
up in April that caused severe flooding in parts of Aroostook and
Piscataquis Counties. While it is still too soon to say that the
snowfall will necessarily lead to flooding in the spring, we will
continue to closely monitor the situation.

$$

CB

Impressive given the state elsewhere