kdxken Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Hurricane strength winds at blue hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Epic pond skating on the Euro late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Epic pond skating on the Euro late next week? No snow mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No snow mid week? Yes from the anafront but it's close to something bigger. Interior areas do the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No snow mid week? It has some...but not ideal...a couple inches on the front end of a "trying to form SWFE" but then it gets absorbed by the main trough and gives us that weird anafront look...rain then maybe ending as snow. It's pretty disjointed and ugly. It probably won't look like that at verification....but I'd like to see the front wave be more dominant because that would give us legit snow if it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It has some...but not ideal...a couple inches on the front end of a "trying to form SWFE" but then it gets absorbed by the main trough and gives us that weird anafront look...rain then maybe ending as snow. It's pretty disjointed and ugly. It probably won't look like that at verification....but I'd like to see the front wave be more dominant because that would give us legit snow if it was. Yes, I'd rather just see a SWFE because the anafront crap is a first ballot fraud five HOF inductee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I'd rather just see a SWFE because the anafront crap is a first ballot fraud five HOF inductee. Agreed. Anafront won't give us crap I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 This Euro run is really just the nearer termed manifestation of that big weird looking hyper anomalous vortex it tried to plunk down deep into the OV several days ago... It's probably all still just a reflection of numerical potential in the runs at this range anyway... Anothe run or two for the details to start emerging but that period may just be a Lakes destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 this sys is moving at a snails pace. Every time I look at radar the r/s line is still in ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are you talking about? Have you not seen the Gefs/nam/00z eps? We miss the old Pickles. Not the Pickles that is old and crotchety from banging grandmothers and seniors Half true lol...just not crotchety or seniors If I sent you photos of two of the grandmothers you would not beleive it . 47 and 52 . No seniors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: In a moment that symbolizes the winter thus far, I just looked out my window to find my formerly pristine and bulletproof pack wiped out by heavy rain and 56/55 conditions. The wind blew over both my trash can and recycling bin, throwing the contents all over the backyard. In the warmth and pouring rain, which arrived just 3 days after the coldest high temp I've ever experienced, I waded through ankle deep standing water to pick up the garbage thrown into my backyard by another cutter, wondering what the hell happened. You brought DC winters with you....we know who to blame for all this now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It’s certainly a torch today. Dews in the 50’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You brought DC winters with you....we know who to blame for all this now. And they had a 12” storm. The winter NYC and BOS have had would be awul even by DC standerds. Having lived in the region for 4 years I actually saw my single greatest storm while there, 33” in PD2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s certainly a torch today. Dews in the 50’s No snow remains here in the open expanses ... just the piles fight for life... We busted both temperature and QPF on the high side, ... not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I expect my pack to be gone when I go home tonight. Snoski ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 EPS doesn't look bad....Hopefully we focus more on the front wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I expect my pack to be gone when I go home tonight. Snoski ftw. Getting decimated here...still have mostly full cove,r but holes are appearing so it won't last the next 3-4 hours. Will prob have like 30-40$ cover when it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 so... looks like 2" of pack equivalence has ceded to the warm air despite some consideration for it's density and retention... That may be case with snow piles/berms and protected valleys and wooded areas but open regions are down to dead grass and mud ... at last here in Shrewsbury. 3" + 2" is 5" over a basin wide area with frozen ground must make for interesting hydro concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS doesn't look bad....Hopefully we focus more on the front wave Not to poke the hornets nest with a hope stick or nothin' but that is more committal to secondary compared to the prior couple of cycles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Dews are the biggest pack killer. A dry 60F gives you wetbulbing on the surface via evaporation and sublimation. Pump some 50-55F dews over it and it's pack cryin' for its mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Dews are the biggest pack killer. A dry 60F gives you wetbulbing on the surface via evaporation and sublimation. Pump some 50-55F dews over it and it's pack cryin' for its mama. I was wondering how Mitch was doing out there with upslope rain and a gigantic pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to poke the hornets nest with a hope stick or nothin' but that is more committal to secondary compared to the prior couple of cycles... Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Dews are the biggest pack killer. A dry 60F gives you wetbulbing on the surface via evaporation and sublimation. Pump some 50-55F dews over it and it's pack cryin' for its mama. 54 F is cold water tap temperature I believe ... Put an ice-cube in the sink and run 54 F water over and see how long it lasts ...heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: 54 F is cold water tap temperature I believe ... Put an ice-cube in the sink and run 54 F water over and see how long it lasts ...heh Yup. I'm enjoying watching the before and after of my pack melt today. Hopefully I'll be able to see my driveway again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us. pretty much concur ... yup. That's what I've been also intimating the last couple of days ..I'm not liking the compression from the N exertion so much in this ... The EPS means seems to try and partially commit to a secondary/Milly Vanilly regardless ... gotta be pretty precise though. eesh. But ... notice also how far west the western ridge component of the full L/W is ? This is proooobably about as far as that is going to go/stretch without the flow breaking ... but it's also achieving the 'stretched' look because the winds are so fast, too. so a lot to consider ... Simplifying for brevity the oper.. has some front side overrunning ... I suggest the ANA that folks are seeing is really incarnate of the model being (for lack of better word...) confused physically what to do and is 'smearing' - I've seen that before in that time range with Miller Bs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us. I'd love to see that lobe more elongated W-E then N-S as currently shown. As you've stated we need a stronger s/w to keep it from phasing with that lobe. Agee that the EPS looks better then it dis 12-24hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This is a bad ass cutter! I agree with everything the fella from DC in East Hartford said. If I had one wish it would be for a few days of dry mild weather to just get rid of some of this water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: This is a bad ass cutter! I agree with everything the fella from DC in East Hartford said. If I had one wish it would be for a few days of dry mild weather to just get rid of some of this water better get used to it ... the new climate paradigm is that is both theoretically and modeled to be rich in moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS doesn't look bad....Hopefully we focus more on the front wave ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I was wondering how Mitch was doing out there with upslope rain and a gigantic pack I am curious how some of those heavy packed locations in Maine's snowmobile country are doing from all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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