Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Next week is a classic case of where having some downstream blocking would be beneficial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 40° light rain. Snowpack has compressed and intra to down to about a foot on the ground. It's just a guess but when this is over and said and done the snowline probably retreat to about Concord New Hampshire the general area where it's at most of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Are you seriously surprised? Hell, mine was gone before midnight last night. I came home to couple splotches in the yard. This AM there were just couple small "snowbanks" left. You had a feather dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You had a feather dusting 2.4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Great executive summary. This post made me lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Snow was almost gone here yesterday evening. Evaporated. Full pack imby still. Same for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The last storm in this timeframe had 6/6/1 for snow #s. Lob off the 1st 2 6s and that's what I saw. You live in a SWFE banana belt for snow in winters where these occur. But of we turn to coastals you’ll clean up in a hurry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: You live in a SWFE banana belt for snow in winters where these occur. But of we turn to coastals you’ll clean up in a hurry. I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s. Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season. It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 What a melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: It reminds me of some of the things you said during 06-07 and 07-08 lol, 07-08 particularly was a great SWFE winter. 07-08 and 08-09. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 07-08 and 08-09. yes sorry thats right! 06-07 was an okay back ended winter, would have been better with more snow and less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS was kind of a weird anafront look...would prob drop a couple inches behind the front...no SWFE as the main low is way too far NW. Euro and its ensembles show more potential for an actual SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Tues-Weds has been signaled now for over a week, Good chance at something wintry seems doable, Euro shows how it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s. Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season. It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO. That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track. You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO? Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s. Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season. It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. 6-12 for you requires exquisite timing or NAO. If we can buy NAO things change in a hurry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice 1 day rebound for the PNA forecast! Huge AO drop! Finally starting to catch up to the better MJO forecast of the ECMWF. Even the 25% of average snowfall of the south coast can score. NAO is still crappy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO. That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track. You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO? Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern? NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position. Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer. Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Feels like spring out there. 50s and soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I figure it this way. I live in Southern New England in an area that sometimes tries to play central New England. Which means I got winter is like these fairly often. Sometimes they're much worse 2011/2012. Sometimes something fantastic happens February 2015, December 1970, and other occasions. I would much rather live further North with very snowy Winters and much cooler Summers. Thinking maybe Pittsburg New Hampshire or Caribou Maine. That's if I stay in the states. LOL. It doesn't look like the end of the world right now. That's probably the best we can say and maybe even a little better than that. Great thing about weather is you've just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position. Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer. Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side. Yeah we actually have a huge ridge out west right now....this system is a great example of finally paying the price for no NAO blocking. We have gotten away with no NAO for a lot of winters recently, but this year is costing us on some systems. Today would have been a great system with an NAO given the cold that just preceded. Probably a powder blizzard type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS was kind of a weird anafront look...would prob drop a couple inches behind the front...no SWFE as the main low is way too far NW. Euro and its ensembles show more potential for an actual SWFE. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO. That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track. You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO? Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern? Right now I do not see a favorable ATL into the 1st week of February, so we are left to rely on the PAC. Snowfall is not something one can easily predict with any level of confidence, especially in areas like ours where 1-2 major storms can skew the numbers relative to an overall season. I guess for the southern portion of SNE, our hope is we can make a run towards 75% of our seasonal norms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow it's already gone there? Ours is still about 4" of dense softened ice/sleet. But it has to last another 10 hours which might be too much. When I left this a.m. it was very sparse with a few areas of just ice. Here at work in Manchester there was a bit more. Bullet proof no more. Too bad because it would have been pretty awesome to have that concrete snow stick around right into another snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: I figure it this way. I live in Southern New England in an area that sometimes tries to play central New England. Which means I got winter is like these fairly often. Sometimes they're much worse 2011/2012. Sometimes something fantastic happens February 2015, December 1970, and other occasions. I would much rather live further North with very snowy Winters and much cooler Summers. Thinking maybe Pittsburg New Hampshire or Caribou Maine. That's if I stay in the states. LOL. It doesn't look like the end of the world right now. That's probably the best we can say and maybe even a little better than that. Great thing about weather is he just wait and see. I'd love Pittsburg in the winter for 5-6 months but I'm not sure I could handle it in April/May/June/October....brutal there. July/August are usually amazing up there though. ORH has a lot of snow cover days to make up this year. The average is around 75 I think and we have about 11 or 12 so far this year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: When I left this a.m. it was very sparse with a few areas of just ice. Here at work in Manchester there was a bit more. Bullet proof no more. Too bad because it would have been pretty awesome to have that concrete snow stick around right into another snow event. Same here. Just patches when I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Nice 1 day rebound for the PNA forecast! Huge AO drop! Finally starting to catch up to the better MJO forecast of the ECMWF. Even the 25% of average snowfall of the south coast can score. NAO is still crappy. Nice to see the PNA get better, Pacific pattern is improving. If the NAO stays like that we might have something like a 93-94 pattern. 2002-03 was also snowy with a pos NAO, but I wouldn't go there that el nino was far stronger than this one. With the brutally cold arctic air, this does remind me of 1993-94 somewhat, but milder than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 51 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Now I haven't said this. From where I sit, next weeks setup is garbage for me. Ridge axis out west needs to push east another 100-150 miles. What transpires after next week, is anyone's guess. Looks like we go into the freezer for a few. Perhaps we score a clipper in there and then maybe we get a coastal as the PV lifts out. Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position. Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer. Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side. Yeah, I don't buy into the MJO having a huge factor on us in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Right now I do not see a favorable ATL into the 1st week of February, so we are left to rely on the PAC. Snowfall is not something one can easily predict with any level of confidence, especially in areas like ours where 1-2 major storms can skew the numbers relative to an overall season. I guess for the southern portion of SNE, our hope is we can make a run towards 75% of our seasonal norms. Wasn't 1993-94 somewhat like this- a favorable Pac but the Atlantic side never really got good? I think Will believes the severe Arctic chill that winter was at least partially the result of Pinatubo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we actually have a huge ridge out west right now....this system is a great example of finally paying the price for no NAO blocking. We have gotten away with no NAO for a lot of winters recently, but this year is costing us on some systems. Today would have been a great system with an NAO given the cold that just preceded. Probably a powder blizzard type. it's too bad, especially since we were supposed to go towards more NAO - winters starting with this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now