Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS-verbatim a couple inches then heavy rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: CMC has temps into the high 50s Yea I'm not buying the CMC when the Euro has consistently shown a much colder solution. Unfortunately I could see this being a rain event for the coast but it's not gonna cut the way the CMC is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS is bordering on an overrunning event followed by basically a strong FROPA and then anafrontal precip falling into strong CAA. ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: CMC has temps into the high 50s if it's a true cutter there will be some very warm temps. CMC is a bad model with low verification scores however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wouldn't a setup like this favor a low development off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: CMC has temps into the high 50s Last nights 0Z CMC showed the cutter. I was hoping at the time it was an outlier, not the case today though other models seem to be trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: GFS-verbatim a couple inches then heavy rain for NYC. Sounds like 1994; I distinctly remember there being a large temperature delta between MMU and CPK during one of the January storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Last nights 0Z CMC showed the cutter. I was hoping at the time it was an outlier, not the case today though other models seem to be trending that way. The CMC is still an absurd outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, North and West said: Sounds like 1994; I distinctly remember there being a large temperature delta between MMU and CPK during one of the January storms. Yep this will have a sharp temp gradient and where that sets up will depend on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wouldn't a setup like this favor a low development off the coast? Yes. I still believe global models are underestimating the cold Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Wouldn't a setup like this favor a low development off the coast? there's not blocking....that's why I don't get JB's redevelopment scenario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It has been the MO of this season so far. Impressive modeled winter storms for the coast day 8-10 becoming less impressive the closer in we get. The mo has been for storms to get squashed as we get closer. 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Amped and Torch city. Oh well. Its gotten very ugly the past 18 hours. Who cares 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: there's not blocking....that's why I don't get JB's redevelopment scenario.... It’s kind of hard to have secondary redevelopment without North Atlantic blocking (-NAO) ahead of the primary parent low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The only 2 storms that got squashed were yesterday and Dec 11th. Most other storms hugged close to NYC or cut. The only missing storm track is a benchmark one. Where did the Nov 15th storm track I don’t remember specifically?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It hugged the coast with a very strong Arctic high over New England. Yup. Wasnt really a great track for NYC area which is why the result was amazing, especially given the time of year and Ocean Temps. Pretty crazy that we cant get a good track in dead winter with ocean temps near 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Why? To go back and fourth with it on the Jan thread? Yeah, we need a dedicated storm thread and a general pattern thread. Otherwise a bunch of posts get lost and the thread has no focus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only 2 storms that got squashed were yesterday and Dec 11th. Most other storms hugged close to NYC or cut. The only missing storm track is a benchmark one. The polar vortex is the reason why it got squashed and it's still going to be to our north. I don't see this storm being a cutter. Ukie just trended way south east and now looks like the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The polar vortex is the reason why it got squashed and it's still going to be to our north. I don't see this storm being a cutter. Ukie just trended way south east and now looks like the gfs. I just hope this doesn’t become a coastal runner because that high seems way to our northwest. A couple of days ago it showed it over north of Michigan now it’s like north of North Dakota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I just hope this doesn’t become a coastal runner because that high seems way to our northwest. A couple of days ago it showed it over north of Michigan now it’s like north of North Dakota. It definitely could but I agree it's not going to cut or go way inland. Probably anywhere from a benchmark track to a coastal hugger is on the table which is by far the best scenario we've had all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The lack of a -NAO block is going to be a big problem I think. You are also lacking a very strong -AO and -EPO which could have compensated for not having a -NAO. While I don’t think the weekend is a full on cutter into the Great Lakes, I can easily see an inside/inland runner for sure. I’m not buying the argument that there is going to be secondary coastal redevelopment with no blocking in the Atlantic. You will also be dealing with a bit of a SE Ridge pop next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hi folks...I am back here again because I just cannot take that "other" board. The overreliance on indexes and phases and long term pattern change talk not to mention the condescending tones and I know it all attitudes there have led me back to here. I just want to get discussion on the two events coming up.....and finally found a place that will discuss them without having to sift through post after post about pattern changes......thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gefs looks great Low of the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The polar vortex is the reason why it got squashed and it's still going to be to our north. I don't see this storm being a cutter. Ukie just trended way south east and now looks like the gfs. Huge shift vs. 0Z - western VA vs. SW Ohio at 7 pm Sat night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs looks great Low of the coast With this track, it would be all snow for nyc region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Hi folks...I am back here again because I just cannot take that "other" board. The overreliance on indexes and phases and long term pattern change talk not to mention the condescending tones and I know it all attitudes there have led me back to here. I just want to get discussion on the two events coming up.....and finally found a place that will discuss them without having to sift through post after post about pattern changes......thank you Welcome back we got some cold rain for ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: With this track, it would be all snow for nyc region NJ shore and LI too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Interesting.... Lets see if the UKIE trend follows up with SE shift on the EURO in an hour. It cant be understated, how much a good EURO OP and EPS run would suddenly change the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CarLover014 said: NJ shore and LI too? Its way to early to figure out exact specifics regarding temps/precip type but with that track likely yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am done anyway posting on storm threats past 120 hrs. It just isn’t worth the trouble with everyone rooting for a big snowstorm following the very slow start to winter so far. 100 times, yes. Surprised you bit in the first place. Needs to be down in the 90hr range before any of this is taken seriously/accurately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fv3 is as bad as canadian going to feel like late April. Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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