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Rjay

January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

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There is strong ensemble support for a winter storm in this time frame.  All storm related posts belong in here.  This will be the first of many threats in the coming weeks.  All pattern disco and threats beyond this period can go in the January Disco/obs thread.

And yes, I just started a thread for a storm ~7 days away.  As we get closer to the 20th, banter will need to be limited.  I hope everyone enjoys tracking this storm.  Good luck to all.     

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

There goes the threat. GEFS look as good as you could hope for a week out. Basically a BM track.

The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum..  No need to wait.   This will be one long ass thread.  

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Just now, Rjay said:

The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum..  No need to wait.   This will be one long ass thread.  

I'm forecasting 200-300+ pages if this holds...

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I agree you can't even think about snowfall maps.  key is the 500mb charts around thursday.  we need sampling of weather data on thursday

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The Weather Channel point and click  for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday.

10-16 inches lol

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Weather Channel point and click  for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday.

10-16 inches lol

Not that they should be putting out numbers but that seems fairly reasonable given current guidance. 

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Don't sleep on Friday's wave

Yeah, for real. That thing is actually squarely inside the medium range and offers a fair chance at a widespread light snowfall, the first of met winter. I'm keeping the blockbuster prospects on the back-burner for a bit longer.

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20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Weather Channel point and click  for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday.

10-16 inches lol

Irresponsible to be putting out specific totals at long-range.  Of course, it's the "Weenie" channel (TWC)...so no surprise; all about those ratings.  

Hype train has already left the station, there.   

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Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

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Just now, Albedoman said:

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

Just assume 30:1 and adjust upward as needed.

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1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

Ratios alone won't produce "big-time" snow drifts.  Will need "big-time" winds, as well.  

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14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Check.

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_30.png

Thanks, Eric.  On phone, at stop lights, while on my way home.  Hadn't seen the 18z products, yet.

We'll see if it all comes together to produce.  Too early, still, to know.  IF it does, and hoping it does so, I'm leaning towards chasing in this particular sub-forum region.    Reason I might be posting in here, time to time.  Last winter storm chase was in NYC and on LI, back in late March 2018.  Love to do it, again!

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