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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

running out of time in a few weeks...it's been "a few weeks away" for about 6 weeks now.  January will likely end up above normal temp wise...

(1) Yes......time moves forwards..... :-P  We are just now rounding the halfway point of meteorological winter and March’s have been kind to us in recent years as well.  While we might need some luck for this weekends storm, I think the coast is in a better position to reap some dividends afterwards.

 

(2) AN for Jan is hardly assured given the cold that’s progged to settle in for the rest of the month.  Might be tough to erase the + departures from the early-month PAC puke, but it might be doable.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Large cluster of EPS members track the low directly over or just west of NYC like the OP Euro and UKMET. 

that's not a huge concern this far out especially since every model run is jumping around - in 2 or 3  days it will be a BIG concern....

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would have to disagree since the 0z EPS took a big step in the wrong direction.

CF2883B2-6C27-4907-B368-FE1B4E4D93EC.thumb.png.f7d2764e434b10170a73d7a05432656a.png

You are just making that up. 

how many storms have we gone through in the last several years where a particular model run took a step in the wrong direction 5 - 6 days out ?

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would have to disagree since the 0z EPS took a big step in the wrong direction.

CF2883B2-6C27-4907-B368-FE1B4E4D93EC.thumb.png.f7d2764e434b10170a73d7a05432656a.png

You are just making that up. 

 

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

they're being entirely realistic. look at it as a voice of reason in a thread overwhelmed by non-science, weenieism and uninformed optimism.

Okay guys sorry

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Icon 12z looks good for our area for Friday’s event, but it’s mostly a light event (white rain) still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north 

D0556D71-2172-47EA-8A47-777CACC3BD82.png

Icon 12z shows a good thump for Sunday’s event changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain

AB8BD154-3BF3-4ACE-BAE4-A950F6A0C9DD.png

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Icon 12z looks good for our area, but it’s mostly a light event still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north 

D0556D71-2172-47EA-8A47-777CACC3BD82.png

Icon 12z shows a good thump changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain

AB8BD154-3BF3-4ACE-BAE4-A950F6A0C9DD.png

Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps...

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Icon 12z looks good for our area for Friday’s event, but it’s mostly a light event (white rain) still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north 

D0556D71-2172-47EA-8A47-777CACC3BD82.png

Icon 12z shows a good thump for Sunday’s event changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain

AB8BD154-3BF3-4ACE-BAE4-A950F6A0C9DD.png

Isn't that ice?

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2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps...

 

2 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Isn't that ice?

 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

850s are likewise cold

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah my mistake no rain there. temps are in the 20’s so it would be horrendous!

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has been the MO of this season so far. Impressive modeled winter storms for the coast day 8-10 becoming less impressive the closer in we get.

It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. 

The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. The models trending towards a stronger MJO 5/6 pulse last few days was incredibly discouraging.

Latest MJO looks like a repeat of late Dec/early Jan but at a lower amplitude. Nino effects are almost non-existent. It's nothing like 2015.

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It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. 

The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. 

From experience.. Globals always underestimate the cold with a HP like this. In turn, this means the baroclynic gradient is likely going to end up further SE. Now there are caveats, but I would hedge my bets on the northeastern corrider setting a good hit from this

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

850s are likewise cold

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Borderline temps above, cold at the surface, heavy mixed precip followed by deep cold the following Monday.  It looks like several inches of dense frozen trash followed by flash freezing.  You're gonna need a pickaxe to clear this stuff up if you aren't done by Sunday night.

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GFS continues to bang the drum for one HELL of an icestorm.  That is like the perfect (and rare!) setup for an icestorm in NYC.  CAD would be much stronger than modeled with a high that strong and the delayed transfer to the coast will let the wind stay NE for longer notwithstanding the track.

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