PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The EPS at 2m You can pull up all 15 days on the EPS at 12z and you will see the following 1 -2 -3 - 7- 8- 9 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 very cold and BN 4 - 5- 6 10 -11 , the EPS has 2 cutter in here and they are AN . Those 2 cutter skew the period but count , otherwise the source region has changed and you will see that when you total up the 15 days . I get it if you don`t snow , nothing`s changed but according to energy traders what`s coming is being viewed as big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past It can sometimes impact the effect of a wind off the water. 12/5/03 was a case of this. We definitely turned winds 060-080 that evening as the unforecast overrunning was still going but because we had layed down 6-8 inches of snow already outside of parts of LI the light east wind was having almost no impact at all for areas just west as it was crossing over areas covered in a new snow pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So... uhh... are we getting a historic catastrophic ice storm for the area or not? Asking for 7 million friends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 BTW some of you will have snow on the ground come Friday morning. The Euro has it even though the NAM is at the end of it`s envelope it`s prob right , but I like this before the Sun / Mon debacle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: BTW some of you will have snow on the ground come Friday morning. The Euro has it even though the NAM is at the end of it`s envelope it`s prob right , but I like this before the Sun / Mon debacle. I’m still leaning towards that disturbance flattening somewhat. The GFS has consistently seemed over amped with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: So... uhh... are we getting a historic catastrophic ice storm for the area or not? Asking for 7 million friends. Most likely not. The surface will probably get to 33 or 34 in most areas before crashing back down. The areas that experience significant icing should be in a relatively narrow band where temps never reach freezing at the surface. Some of what the models show as mixed precip could also fall as sleet or a mixture which would minimize accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The EPS at 2m You can pull up all 15 days on the EPS at 12z and you will see the following 1 -2 -3 - 7- 8- 9 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 very cold and BN 4 - 5- 6 10 -11 , the EPS has 2 cutter in here and they are AN . Those 2 cutter skew the period but count , otherwise the source region has changed and you will see that when you total up the 15 days . I get it if you don`t snow , nothing`s changed but according to energy traders what`s coming is being viewed as big deal. NG was up 14% today alone... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I’m still leaning towards that disturbance flattening somewhat. The GFS has consistently seemed over amped with it The EURO / RGEM / NAM like it , I think it comes thru the flow ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Most likely not. The surface will probably get to 33 or 34 in most areas before crashing back down. The areas that experience significant icing should be in a relatively narrow band where temps never reach freezing at the surface. Some of what the models show as mixed precip could also fall as sleet or a mixture which would minimize accumulation. Yeah, especially in urban areas its extremely hard to get a true ice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Per Euro we're talking ~1" freezing rain in 6 hours. It's hard to freeze up substantially at that rate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, especially in urban areas its extremely hard to get a true ice storm here. The last 8-10 years we’ve seen a large number of long duration Fzra events at places like LGA NYC EWR. Less so for JFK and LI. None have really been catastrophic though. In the long run I would say it’s a one in 30 year event or so to see the entire metro and Long Island see a severe freezing rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The last 8-10 years we’ve seen a large number of long duration Fzra events at places like LGA NYC EWR. Less so for JFK and LI. None have really been catastrophic though. In the long run I would say it’s a one in 30 year event or so to see the entire metro and Long Island see a severe freezing rain event Yeah high number of events with minimal impact. None are memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The east pac pattern is fun to watch on the new GOES-17. There are a ton of vorts coming together out there. I'd recommend looping it on the CSU slider. That's channel 9 (mid-level water vapor) above on the CONUS sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah high number of events with minimal impact. None are memorable. They've mostly occurred in SWFEs. We have seen a tendency for the wedging or damming to hold exceptionally well. I’ve been curious why this is the case because prior to 2008-2010 it seemed that never happened on those events. It was snow to rain generally. It could just be randomness or could be we are in a pattern often times ahead of these storms whereby the position of high pressure center has been settling in an ideal spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The last 8-10 years we’ve seen a large number of long duration Fzra events at places like LGA NYC EWR. Less so for JFK and LI. None have really been catastrophic though. In the long run I would say it’s a one in 30 year event or so to see the entire metro and Long Island see a severe freezing rain event Every 30 years is probably a good guesstimate. Here's what I posted the other day in the model thread... Interesting write ups on the 1/7/94 major ice storm, below. Ray Martin's quote is pretty stark: "Ice accretion from freezing rain exceeded 1 inch across much of central New Jersey, making this the worst ice storm in modern times across this part of the state." I was in Ireland for for work during Dec/Jan and missed all the "fun" but my pregnant wife was trapped in the house for a couple of days. I remember her telling me about how horrible the ice storms were and I had a hard time believing her, lol - there was no internet and I never got to read any reports of the storm at the time, but obviously, since then, I've heard tons. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94.html http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/08/historical-case-study-of-january-7-1994.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Per Euro we're talking ~1" freezing rain in 6 hours. It's hard to freeze up substantially at that rate.I agree with you with one caveat.. This cold looks brutal and if the 850s hit 33/34 and temps are in the low 20s.. It could happen. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If that PV stays in place, surface temps won't get out of the 20s. Models warm up surface temps way too quickly in these setups. We see a lot of times with these storms where temps hang much colder for a while but it will torch at least briefly near the coast if the low takes the more northern track. Might be in the 20s/30s most of the storm and make a run at 45-50 for an hour especially on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Per Euro we're talking ~1" freezing rain in 6 hours. It's hard to freeze up substantially at that rate. I would have to see the Euro soundings but if the surface is in the 20's and it's raining it would probably have no problem accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z GFS is on board with snow for Friday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS is on board with snow for Friday morning. Nice little treat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: We see a lot of times with these storms where temps hang much colder for a while but it will torch at least briefly near the coast if the low takes the more northern track. Might be in the 20s/30s most of the storm and make a run at 45-50 for an hour especially on LI Based on today's version of the ensembles, I think this is one of the more likely scenarios. It will come down to where the low-level jet sets up; those are always good for getting southerly surface winds into the coast/city/LI - when overhead. The low-level Arctic air would have no issue surging back south quickly, as some of the operational runs are showing. That's why I think an ice storm is a credible threat for at least parts of this forum. As many have pointed out, the synoptic evolution is critical Thursday-Sunday, but what happens Thursday night in terms of fresh snow cover is another important wild card. The more snow that accumulates in the Northeast with that first piece, the more likely the shallow cold air will be close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS is on board with snow for Friday morning. Snow to Rain on GFS still but comparing it to the other models its probably wrong for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Snow to Rain on GFS still but comparing it to the other models its probably wrong for Friday I think any rain would be minimal if that track verified. The surface only gets to 33 over much of the interior and the GFS has a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 SLP already 997mb over Oklahoma. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: SLP already 997mb over Oklahoma. Yikes. Think this run gonna be ugly for the coast, very amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Think this run gonna be ugly for the coast, very amped No blocking either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Probably comes in as rain. Who has a fork? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Probably comes in as rain. Who has a fork? Yea looks like basically all rain for the city and points southeast. Still 4 days out out so not a stick a fork yet but not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here comes a lot of Rain. Maybe, we can hit 60 degrees on this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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