allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'd start worrying if I was in Montreal. UK was the best run on any guidance in over a day and then the Euro is a 60° disaster. 6z GFS and ICON are also NW. The writing is just about on the wall IMO. Writing on the wall on Tuesday and still the energy won’t be properly sampled until Thursday! Seems a little premature to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The models want to phase in the polar vortex. Where the hell was this with the last 2 southern storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Is there any front end snows on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The models want to phase in the polar vortex. Where the hell was this with the last 2 southern storms? It hasn't been our year so far. This was typical in the 80's and 90's. Isn't the lack of blocking causing us problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Writing on the wall on Tuesday and still the energy won’t be properly sampled until Thursday! Seems a little premature to me. It is, of course. But the recurrent theme of warm temps probably can't be dismissed out of hand. It happens; warm rain, then cold. At least that's what I read here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Why are people bitching about the Euro? It looks great for lots of anafrontal precip. Me likey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Why are people bitching about the Euro? It looks great for lots of anafrontal precip. Me likey. Explain more plz.... it seems that if any warmer highs verify it will be brief Bc the temps are supposed to crash fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Why are people bitching about the Euro? It looks great for lots of anafrontal precip. Me likey. Do you live near the coastal plain? Those sorts of things usually don't cut it here, if I am understanding it correctly ( which I may not be TBH ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gefs still looks good for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gefs still looks good for inland areas. How far inland? Immediate burbs north or need to go further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Why are people bitching about the Euro? It looks great for lots of anafrontal precip. Me likey. not in NYC and along the coast-it's mainly rain with nothing on the back end....6Z GFS is mostly rain as well and then the cold comes in after the precip is gone....UKMET is the only model that shows decent snows for the coast and city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: not in NYC and along the coast-it's mainly rain with nothing on the back end....6Z GFS is mostly rain as well and then the cold comes in after the precip is gone....UKMET is the only model that shows decent snows for the coast and city. If you use verbatim surface temp from a global, sure. But only people who have never learned to read a model will do that. This continues to have a strong ice signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Drz1111 said: If you use verbatim surface temp from a global, sure. But only people who have never learned to read a model will do that. This continues to have a strong ice signal. Eh. We're not talking 36° on globals, we're talking 56° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh. We're not talking 36° on globals, we're talking 56° TBH those temps are extremely suspect... I strongly feel they will change with time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: TBH those temps are extremely suspect... I strongly feel they will change with time. I do too, likely way over done but 40s on the coast look likely at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: TBH those temps are extremely suspect... I strongly feel they will change with time. I do too, likely way over done but 40s on the coast look likely at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How far inland? Immediate burbs north or need to go further north? Just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I do too, likely way over done but 40s on the coast look likely at this stage Nothing looks likely this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: not in NYC and along the coast-it's mainly rain with nothing on the back end....6Z GFS is mostly rain as well and then the cold comes in after the precip is gone....UKMET is the only model that shows decent snows for the coast and city. Ukie has been doing well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just north of NYC Will elevation play a role either way with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6z Fv3 did tick colder FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Me personally living 30 due north of NYC I feel I stand a good chance for a nasty ice potential... I was 18 degrees this morning. Anybody agree? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Me personally living 30 due north of NYC I feel I stand a good chance for a nasty ice potential... I was 18 degrees this morning. Anybody agree? Yeah, north and particularly west would stand to have more ice potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Me personally living 30 due north of NYC I feel I stand a good chance for a nasty ice potential... I was 18 degrees this morning. Anybody agree? if the storm cuts well west of NYC like the Euro shows, you could be zero and it would be all rain-that would be a huge push of Southerly winds which would bring 55 degree warmth to us. all depends on the ultimate track of the low and how it interacts with the cold. Big ice is rare-usually the storm cuts and we rain and then the cold comes or it taps the cold and we are snow or perhaps snow to rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 In many ways, this is just a repeat of the pattern we've seen repeatedly since Fall. A beefy Atlantic ridge with greatest + height anomalies over Newfoundland and - anomalies over the OH/TN Valleys and Appalachians. This helps promote deep southerly flow that has produced so many heavy precip events. While the end result this weekend does come down to how energy phases into the developing trough, I think assuming the surface low passes within 50 miles of NYC is a good bet at this point. No model in this pattern was able to capture the small-scale nuances of the low level wind field, with colder air generally holding in place longer than modeled region-wide. Now we're just adding climatology, cold water and the development of widespread frigid air into the mix. The ECMWF had a warm/NW bias with many of these coastal lows, while the GFS and its family were often too cold/SE. Whatever warm sector makes it in will likely be brief and after the heaviest precip has passed through, so this is still a wintry, albeit less snowy setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: In many ways, this is just a repeat of the pattern we've seen repeatedly since Fall. A beefy Atlantic ridge with greatest + height anomalies over Newfoundland and - anomalies over the OH/TN Valleys and Appalachians. This helps promote deep southerly flow that has produced so many heavy precip events. While the end result this weekend does come down to how energy phases into the developing trough, I think assuming the surface low passes within 50 miles of NYC is a good bet at this point. No model in this pattern was able to capture the small-scale nuances of the low level wind field, with colder air generally holding in place longer than modeled region-wide. Now we're just adding climatology, cold water and the development of widespread frigid air into the mix. The ECMWF had a warm/NW bias with many of these coastal lows, while the GFS and its family were often too cold/SE. Whatever warm sector makes it in will likely be brief and after the heaviest precip has passed through, so this is still a wintry, albeit less snowy setup. So are you basically saying the models are just too warm and will likely trend colder once they realize how cold the air mass really is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: So are you basically saying the models are just too warm and will likely trend colder once they realize how cold the air mass really is. any one of them with a surface low track near the area is likely too warm w/ 2m temps, yes. the synoptic evolution could change all of this, but it is a pattern we've repeated many times this cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, wdrag said: Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt Yeah, seems like regardless of the model this has legit flash freeze potential written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, wdrag said: Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt Some here have and with ongoing precip that can create a lot of problems especially if it happens on a weekday at the wrong hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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