Yanksfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro had some improvements in the upper levels. More separation between low and vortex. Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Is Ukie number 2 in verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, White Gorilla said: Is Ukie number 2 in verification scores? 3rd actually eps euro ukmet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Is Ukie number 2 in verification scores? While I don’t believe this page has been updated recently, the UKMET is often too far south with lows from recent observations. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html#UK The model tends to lower surface pressures too much and too far south and often implies synoptic-scale fronts too far south. Often too low with heights along the southern ends of short wave trofs, resulting in a southward displaced storm track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Can the same be said about the Euro often being too amped? Perhaps a compromise between the two will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m going to ride out the best model and say ukmet is wrong. Let’s see what the best model shows in half hr (eps) fwiw ukmet did excellent with Sunday’s event in he middle Atlantic while gfs and it’s nemesis para and Canadian were very volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Can the same be said about the Euro often being too amped? Perhaps a compromise between the two will verify. I do believe it has that tendency to be too amped. Remember no one model is 100% accurate. Always a compromise is the way to go. Also it’s only Tuesday and I truely believe this system on Thursday/Fri needs to exit before any assumptions are made for the weekend storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW the Para GFS was nowhere near the torch that the GFS OP was. This is the warmest panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Still a day or two here to see where this is going-however, MJO in poor phase, No Blocking no 50-50 low and seasonal trend not in our favor here...UKIE is an outlier for the time being.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW(not much unless it's Feb 2006) the JMA is less amped this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: FWIW(not much unless it's Feb 2006) the JMA is less amped this run. Low is in a similar spot to the CMC and UKIE ( in Virginia) CMC then brought it northeast into CT while UKIE went almost due east. No idea what the JMA does with it from there, but it definitely wouldn’t be into NY like the GFS. Ok moving on from the JMA now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You know things aren't going our way when we are talking about JMA and ICON, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: FWIW the Para GFS was nowhere near the torch that the GFS OP was. This is the warmest panel. Looks like it's showing CAD in the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Low is in a similar spot to the CMC and UKIE ( in Virginia) CMC then brought it northeast into CT while UKIE went almost due east. No idea what the JMA does with it from there, but it definitely wouldn’t be into NY like the GFS. Ok moving on from the JMA now lol Yeah as am I. Just had to note it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah as am I. Just had to note it. JMA did nail the 96 blizzard before the rest...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, tomcatct said: JMA did nail the 96 blizzard before the rest...just saying It's not a UK good solution but better than a lot of guidance is for us atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW the NAVGEM is in the UKMET camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: FWIW the NAVGEM is in the UKMET camp. It was really amped at 6Z. where did you see the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: FWIW the NAVGEM is in the UKMET camp. It's been rather suppressed for a while now. Haven't seen 12z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: It was really amped at 6Z. where did you see the 12z? No it wasn't. It tracked from Virginia to South of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: It was really amped at 6Z. where did you see the 12z? Not really, too amped for us but less so than most everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: It was really amped at 6Z. where did you see the 12z? 0z went over LI, 6z over SE MA/Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 deep thunder much like the ukmet is even more supressed on the 12z run; jackpots the city w/ 12-18" and is an all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Not really, too amped for us but less so than most everything else. It was a great run for just about everyone here outside of maybe Eastern Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: deep thunder much like the ukmet is even more supressed on the 12z run; jackpots the city w/ 12-18" and is an all snow event. At least its consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: It was a great run for just about everyone here outside of maybe Eastern Long Island. Yup. I would take that in a heartbeat up here in mid-hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The EPS is showing less interaction between the system and the PV. Positive trends at 12z even if the surface still looks bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: deep thunder much like the ukmet is even more supressed on the 12z run; jackpots the city w/ 12-18" and is an all snow event. Where can I find the so called deep thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Given the SE bias of the NAVGEM, anyone who has been following that model knows it needs to be far off the coast for it to be good the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Where can I find the so called deep thunder? not publicly available unless someone with access posts it online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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